Investigating the potential effects of climate change on deviation of thermal and human bioclimatic conditions in Iran

Abstract

Air temperature has a very high impact on the bioclimatic conditions and climate comfort for humans. In this study, the impacts of climate change on deviation and changes in thermal and human bioclimatic conditions in Iran have been investigated. For this purpose, baseline data (1985–2016) and future data (2020–2090) of the CORDEX regional models have been investigated using the effective temperature (ET) bioclimatic index. The results showed that the air temperature in Iran will increase in the annual and seasonal pattern in the future compared to the baseline period. Sunshine hours in the upcoming period will increase significantly compared to the baseline period, so that according to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, 110 and 56 h, respectively, will be added to the sunshine hours. The results of the ET index showed that one of the obvious effects of rising air temperature in the future would be the variation in the spectrum diversity and the range of human bioclimatic. In the future in all seasons, the human bioclimatic spectrum will change compared to baseline period. The spatial range of the hot, very hot and unfavorable bioclimatic spectrum will expand in the spring and summer seasons. In the future, the areas with favorable bioclimatic will be smaller and the area of unfavorable bioclimatic will be increased.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) for providing data and information.

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Correspondence to Hamzeh Ahmadi.

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Ahmadi, H., Baaghideh, M. Investigating the potential effects of climate change on deviation of thermal and human bioclimatic conditions in Iran. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 6, 439–453 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00691-y

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Keywords

  • Bioclimatic conditions
  • Climate change
  • Climate comfort
  • ET index
  • Sunshine hours
  • Iran