Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Planetary Epidemiology: Towards First Principles

  • Global Environmental Health and Sustainability (W Al-Delaimy, Section Editor)
  • Published:
Current Environmental Health Reports Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Purpose of Review

To combine evolutionary principles of competition and co-operation with limits to growth models, generating six principles for a new sub-discipline, called “planetary epidemiology.” Suggestions are made for how to quantify four principles.

Recent Findings

Climate change is one of a suite of threats increasingly being re-discovered by health workers as a major threat to civilization. Although “planetary health” is now in vogue, neither it nor its allied sub-disciplines have, as yet, had significant impact on epidemiology. Few if any theorists have sought to develop principles for Earth system human epidemiology, in its ecological, social, and technological milieu.

Summary

The principles of planetary epidemiology described here can be used to stimulate applied, quantitative work to explore past, contemporary, and future population health, at scales from local to planetary, in order to promote enduring health. It is also proposed that global well-being will decline this century, without radical reform.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

Papers of particular interest, published recently, have been highlighted as: • Of importance •• Of major importance

  1. Curtis V. Hygiene: how myths, monsters, and mothers-in-law can promote behaviour change. J Inf Secur. 2001;43:75–9. https://doi.org/10.1053/jinf.2001.0862.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Gross CP, Sepkowitz KA. The myth of the medical breakthrough: smallpox, vaccination, and Jenner reconsidered. Int J Inf Dis. 1998;3(1):54–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/S201-9712(98)90096-0.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Fenner F, Henderson DA, Arita I, Jezak Z. I.D. L. Smallpox and its eradication. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1988. 1460 p

  4. Graunt J. Natural and political observations mentioned in a fallowing index, and made upon the bills of mortality. J Inst Actuar. 1964(1662);90:11–20.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Declich S, Carter AO. Public health surveillance: historical origins, methods and evaluation. Bull World Health Organ. 1994;72(2):285–304.

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  6. Morabia A. Epidemiology’s 350th anniversary: 1662–2012. Epidemiology. 2013;24(2):179–83. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e31827b5359.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  7. • Whitmee S, Haines A, Beyrer C, Boltz F, Capon AG, de Souza Dias BF, et al. Safeguarding human health in the Anthropocene epoch: report of The Rockefeller Foundation–Lancet Commission on planetary health. Lancet. 2015;386:1973–2028. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60901-1 First paper attempting to describe principles of “planetary health”.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. McMichael AJ. Population health in the Anthropocene: gains, losses and emerging trends. Anthropocene Rev. 2014;1(1):44–56. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019613514035.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Hancock T. Population health promotion 2.0: an eco-social approach to public health in the Anthropocene. Can J Public Health. 2015;106(4):e252–e5. https://doi.org/10.17269/cjph.106.5161.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  10. Butler CD. Sounding the alarm: health in the Anthropocene. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2016;13:665. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13070665.

    Article  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  11. Hill BA. The environment and disease; association or causation? Proc R Soc Med. 1965;58:295–300.

  12. Pearce N. Traditional epidemiology, modern epidemiology, and public health. Am J Pub Health. 1996;86:678–83. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.86.5.678.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Commission for the Social Determinants of Health. Closing the gap in a generation. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2008. 245 p

  14. Butler CD, Friel S. Time to regenerate: ecosystems and health promotion. PLoS Med. 2006;3(10):e394. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0030394.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  15. Suzuki D, Knudtson P. Wisdom of the elders Sydney. Australia: Allen & Unwin; 1997. 368 p

  16. Finn S, Herne M, Castille D. The value of traditional ecological knowledge for the environmental health sciences and biomedical research. Environ Health Perspect. 2017;125(8):085006.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. McMichael AJ. Prisoners of the proximate. Loosening the constraints on epidemiology in an age of change. Am J Epidemiol. 1999;149(10):887–97.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Buse CG, Oestreicher JS, Ellis NR, Patrick R, Brisbois B, Jenkins AP, et al. Public health guide to field developments linking ecosystems, environments and health in the Anthropocene. J. Epidemiol. Community Health. 2018;72(5):420–5. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2017-210082.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  19. Susser M, Susser E. Choosing a future for epidemiology: II. From black box to eco-epidemiology. Am J Public Health. 1996;86:674–7. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195300666.003.0025.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  20. Soskolne CL, Broemling N. Eco-epidemiology: on the need to measure health effects from global change. Glob Chang Hum Health. 2002;3(1):58–66.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Lang T, Rayner G. Ecological public health: the 21st century’s big idea? BMJ. 2012;345:e5466. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.e5466.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  22. Wilcox BA, Aguirre AA, Daszak P, Horwitz P, Martens P, Parkes M, et al. EcoHealth: a transdisciplinary imperative for a sustainable future. EcoHealth. 2004;1:3–5. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-004-0014-9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Butler CD, Harley D. Primary, secondary and tertiary effects of the eco-climate crisis: the medical response. Postgrad Med J. 2010;86:230–4. https://doi.org/10.1136/pgmj.2009.082727.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  24. Rapport DJ. Epidemiology and ecosystem health: natural bridges. Ecosyst Health. 1999;5(3):174–80. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.526-0992.1999.09927.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Zinsstag J, Schelling E, Waltner-Toews D, Tanner M. From “one medicine” to “one health” and systemic approaches to health and well-being. Prev Vet Med. 2011;101:148–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.07.003.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  26. Butler CD, McFarlane RA. Climate change, food security and population health in the Anthropocene. In: DellaSala DA, editor. Encyclopaedia of the Anthropocene, vol. 2. Amsterdam: Elsevier; 2018. p. 453–9.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  27. Prescott SL, Logan AC. Larger than life: injecting hope into the planetary health paradigm. Challenges. 2018;9(1):13. https://doi.org/10.3390/challe9010013.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Prescott SL, Logan A, Albrecht G, Campbell D, Crane J, Cunsolo A, et al. The Canmore Declaration: statement of principles for planetary health. Glob Chall. 2018;9(2):31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Butler CD. Planetary health. In: Kobayashi A, editor. International encyclopedia of human geography. The Netherlands: Elsevier; in press.

  30. Seltenrich N. Down to earth: the emerging field of planetary health. Environ Health Perspect. 2018;126(7):072001–1–7.

    Google Scholar 

  31. Lee K, Buse K, Fustukian S. An introduction to global health policy. In: Lee K, Buse K, Fustukian S, editors. Health policy in a globalising world. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2002. p. 4–5.

    Google Scholar 

  32. McMichael AJ. Climate change and global health. In: Butler CD, editor. Climate change and Global Health. Wallingford: CABI; 2014. p. 11–20.

    Google Scholar 

  33. Romanelli C, Capon A, Maiero M, Campbell-Lendrum D, Butler CD, Corvalan C, et al. Climate change, biodiversity and human health. In: World Health Organization, Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, editors. Connecting Global Priorities: Biodiversity and Human Health. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity,; 2015. p. 222–37.

  34. • Butler CD. Limits to growth, planetary boundaries, and planetary health. Curr Opin Environ Sustain. 2017;25:59–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2017.08.002 Argues that the links between planetary health and limits to growth deserve far wider appreciation.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Ventola CL. The antibiotic resistance crisis. Part 1: causes and threats. Pharm Ther. 2015;40(4):277–83. https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2016.1492.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. • Ho D. Love in the time of antibiotic resistance: how altruism might be our best hope. In: Ho D, editor. Philosophical issues in pharmaceutics. Dordrecht: Springer; 2017. p. 257–71. Argues that the crisis of global antibiotic resistance is related to individual and collective selfishness, with global, sub-optimal consequences, enhanced by a lack of global organization and insufficient co-operation and altruism.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  37. Morse JA, Bendek E, Cabrol N, Turnbull M, Chakrabarti S, Fischer D, et al. Project Blue—visible light imaging search for terrestrial class exoplanets in the habitable zones of Alpha Centauri A & B. https://www.arxivorg/ftp/arxiv/papers/1803/180304872pdf. 2018.

  38. Simpson T. The philosopher and the scientist. Philos Now. 2017;120:14–5.

    Google Scholar 

  39. Meadows D, Meadows D, Randers J, Behrens W III. The limits to growth. New York: Universe Books; 1972. 205 p

  40. Rees W. Humans are blind to imminent environmental collapse. http://www.postcarbonorg/humans-are-blind-to-imminent-environmental-collapse/. 2017.

  41. • Barnosky AD, Ehrlich PR, Hadly EA. Avoiding collapse: grand challenges for science and society to solve by 2050. Elementa: Sci Anthropocene. 2016;4:94. https://doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000094 Argues that “humanity’s grand challenge is solving the intertwined problems of human population growth and overconsumption, climate change, pollution, ecosystem destruction, disease spillovers, and extinction, in order to avoid environmental tipping points that would make human life more difficult and would irrevocably damage planetary life support systems.”

  42. Horton R, Beaglehole R, Bonita R, Raeburn J, McKee M, Wall S. From public to planetary health: a manifesto. Lancet. 2014;383:847.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Butler CD. Planetary overload, limits to growth and health. Curr Environ Health Rep. 2016;3(4):360–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-016-0110-3.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  44. Butler CD. “Regional overload” as an indicator of profound risk: a plea for the public health community to awaken. In: Quilley S, Zywert K, editors. Medicines for the Anthropocene: health on a finite planet. Toronto: Canada University of Toronto Press; (in press).

  45. Malthus TR. An essay on the principle of population. London: J. Johnson; 1798.

    Google Scholar 

  46. Darwin C, Wallace A. On the tendency of species to form varieties; and on the perpetuation of varieties and species by natural means of selection. J Proc Linnean Soc Lond Zool. 1858;3(9):45–62. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.096-3642.1858.tb02500.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Range F, Virányi Z. Tracking the evolutionary origins of dog-human cooperation: the “canine cooperation hypothesis”. Front Psychol. 2015;5:1582. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2014.01582.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  48. Coyte KZ, Schluter J, Foster KR. The ecology of the microbiome: networks, competition, and stability. Science. 2015;350:663–6. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad2602.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  49. Boyd R, Richerson PJ. Culture and the evolution of human cooperation. Phil Trans R Soc B: Biol Sci. 2009;364(1533):3281–8. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2009.0134.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Smil V. Harvesting the biosphere: the human impact. Popul Dev Rev. 2011;37(4):613–36. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.728-4457.2011.00450.x.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  51. Dirzo R, Young HS, Galetti M, Ceballos G, Isaac NJB, Collen B. Defaunation in the Anthropocene. Science. 2014;345:401–6. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1251817.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  52. Smith FA, Elliott Smith RE, Lyons SK, Payne JL. Body size downgrading of mammals over the late Quaternary. Science. 2018;360:310–3. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao5987.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  53. Laurance WF, Sayer J, Cassman KG. Agricultural expansion and its impacts on tropical nature. Trends Ecol Evol. 2014;29(2):107–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.12.001.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  54. Hall CAS, Lambert JG, Balogh SB. EROI of different fuels and the implications for society. Energy Policy. 2014;64(Supplement C):141–52.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. • Homer-Dixon T, Walker B, Biggs R, Crépin A-S, Folke C, Lambin EF, et al. Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global crisis. Ecol Soc. 2015;20(3):6. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07681-200306 Describes how multiple stresses in social-ecological systems can rapidly propagate across multiple system boundaries to the global scale.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. • O’Neill DW, Fanning AL, Lamb WF, Steinberger JK. A good life for all within planetary boundaries. Nat Sust. 2018;1:88–95. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0021-4 Finds “no country meets basic needs for its citizens at a globally sustainable level of resource use”.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. McMichael AJ. Planetary overload. Global environmental change and the health of the human species. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1993.

    Google Scholar 

  58. Butler CD. The consumption bomb. Med Confl Surviv. 1997;13(3):209–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/13623699708409341.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  59. Brijnath B, McMichael AJ, Butler CD. Rio+20: Don’t forget health in sustainability talks. Nature. 2012;486:191. https://doi.org/10.1038/486191a.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  60. Hovenden M, Newton P. Plant responses to CO2 are a question of time. Science. 2018;360:263–4. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat2481.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  61. Wieder WR, Cleveland CC, Smith WK, Todd-Brown K. Future productivity and carbon storage limited by terrestrial nutrient availability. Nat Geosci. 2018;8:441–5.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. Pecl GT, Araújo MB, Bell JD, Blanchard J, Bonebrake TC, Chen I-C, et al. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science. 2017;355(6332)eaai9214.

  63. Alcott B. Jevons’ paradox. Ecol Econ. 2005;54:9–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  64. Storelvmo T, Leirvik T, Lohmann U, Phillips PCB, Wild M. Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth’s climate sensitivity. Nat Geosci. 2016;9:286–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2670.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  65. Ramanathan V, Seddon J, Victor DG. The next front on climate change: how to avoid a dimmer, drier world. Foreign Aff. 2016;95:135–42.

    Google Scholar 

  66. Tai APK, Martin MV, Heald CL. Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution. Nat Clim Chang. 2014;4:817–21. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2317.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  67. Cohen AJ, Brauer M, Burnett R, Anderson HR, Frostad J, Estep K, et al. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015. Lancet. 2017;389(10082):1907–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  68. Loladze I. Rising atmospheric CO2 and human nutrition: toward globally imbalanced plant stoichiometry? Trends Ecol Evol. 2002;17(10):457–61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  69. Myers SS, Zanobetti A, Kloog I, Huybers P, Leakey ADB, Bloom AJ, et al. Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition. Nature. 2014;510(7503):139–42.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  70. Butler CD, Chambers R, Chopra K, Dasgupta P, Duraiappah A, Kumar P, et al. Ecosystems and human well-being. In: Assessment Millennium Ecosystem, editor. Ecosystems and human well-being a framework for assessment. Washington: Island Press; 2003. p. 71–84.

  71. Beddoe R, Costanza R, Farley J, Garza E, Kent J, Kubiszewski I, et al. Overcoming systemic roadblocks to sustainability: the evolutionary redesign of worldviews, institutions, and technologies. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA), vol. 106; 2009. p. 2483–9.

    Google Scholar 

  72. Kahneman D, Deaton A. High income improves evaluation of life but not emotional well-being. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2010;107(38):16489–93. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011492107.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  73. Johnson C. The virtues of repression: politics and health in revolutionary Cuba. Health Policy Plan. 2018;33:758–9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  74. Berdine G, Geloso V, Powell B. Cuban infant mortality and longevity: health care or repression? Health Policy Plan. 2018;33(6):755–7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  75. Raworth K. Doughnut economics: seven ways to think like a 21st century economist. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing; 2017.

    Google Scholar 

  76. Bloom DE, Canning D. The health and wealth of nations. Science. 2000;287:1207–9. https://doi.org/10.1026/science.287.5456.1207.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  77. Oaten M, Stevenson RJ, Case TI. Disgust as a disease-avoidance mechanism. Psychol Bull. 2009;135(2):303–21. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0014823.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  78. Jewitt S. Geographies of shit: spatial and temporal variations in attitudes towards human waste. Prog Hum Geogr. 2011;35(5):608–26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  79. Nriagu JO. Saturnine gout among Roman aristocrats. New Engl J Med. 1983;308(1):660–3. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJM198303173081123.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  80. Brunekreef B, Hoffmann B. Air pollution and heart disease. Lancet. 2016;388:640–2. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30375-0.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  81. Calderón-Garcidueñas L, Villarreal-Ríos R. Living close to heavy traffic roads, air pollution, and dementia. Lancet. 2017;389:675–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32596-X.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  82. Mao J, Ribes A, Yan B, Shi X, Thornton PE, Séférian R, et al. Human-induced greening of the northern extratropical land surface. Nat Clim Chang. 2016;6:959–63. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3056.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  83. Butler CD. Famine, hunger, society and climate change. In: Butler CD, editor. Climate change and Global Health. Wallingford: CABI; 2014. p. 124–34.

    Google Scholar 

  84. Porter JR, Xie L, Challinor AJ, Cochrane K, Howden SM, Iqbal MM, et al. Food security and food production systems. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, et al., editors. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: part a: global and sectoral aspects contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY. USA: Cambridge University Press; 2014. p. 485–533.

    Google Scholar 

  85. Butler CD, Hales S, Beggs PJ, Ebi KL. From Paris towards 1.5 degrees C. In: Butler CD, editor. Climate change and global health. Wallingford: CABI; 2016. p. 293–305.

    Google Scholar 

  86. Withgott J. Birds spy on neighbors to choose nest sites. Science. 2002;297:1107–8.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  87. Wilson EO. Biophilia. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press; 1984. 157 p

  88. Flannery TF. The future eaters. Melbourne: Reed Books; 1994. 423 p

    Google Scholar 

  89. Butler CD. Population trends and the environment. In: Friis RH, editor. Praeger handbook of environmental health. Westport, Connecticut: Praegar; 2012. p. 215–31.

    Google Scholar 

  90. Cline EH. 1177 B.C. the year civilization collapsed. Princeton: Princeton University Press; 2014. 264 p

  91. Motesharrei S, Rivas J, Kalnay E. Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies. Ecol Econ. 2014;101:90–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.014.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  92. Holdaway RN, Allentoft ME, Jacomb C, Oskam CL, Beavan NR, Bunce M. An extremely low-density human population exterminated New Zealand moa. Nat Commun. 2014;5:5436.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  93. Goff J, Nunn PD. Rapid societal change as a proxy for regional environmental forcing: evidence and explanations for Pacific island societies in the 14–15th centuries. Island Arc. 2016;25(5):305–15. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6436.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  94. Ehrlich PR. The population bomb. London: Ballantyne; 1968. 223 p

  95. Menkhaus K. No access: critical bottlenecks in the 2011 Somali famine. Glob Food Secur-Agric. 2012;1(1):29–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2012.07.004.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  96. Fink MD. Naval blockade and the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. Netherlands Int Law Rev. 2017;64(2):291–307.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  97. Akande D, Gillard E. Promoting compliance with the rules regulating humanitarian relief operations in armed conflict: some challenges. Israel Law Rev. 2017;50(2):119–37. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021223717000048.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  98. Harbeck M, Seifert L, Hansch S, Wagner DM, Birdsell D, Parise KL, et al. Yersinia pestis DNA from skeletal remains from the 6th century AD reveals insights into Justinianic plague. PLoS Pathol. 2013;9(5):e1003349. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  99. • Büntgen U, Myglan VS, Ljungqvist FC, McCormick M, Cosmo ND, Sigl M, et al. Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 AD. Nature Geosci. 2016;9:231–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2652 Describes relationship between a series of severe volcanic eruptions and massive social change, from Eastern Roman Empire to China.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  100. DeWitte SN, Hughes-Morey G. Stature and frailty during the Black Death: the effect of stature on risks of epidemic mortality in London, A.D. 1348–1350. J Archaeol Sci. 2012;39(5):1412–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2012.01.019.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  101. Oxford JS, Sefton A, Jackson R, Innes W, Daniels RS, Johnson NPAS. World War I may have allowed the emergence of “Spanish” influenza. Lancet Inf Dis. 2002;2(2):111–4. https://doi.org/10.1016/S473-3099(02)00185-8.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  102. • Caesar L, Rahmstorf S, Robinson A, Feulner G, Saba V. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature. 2018;556:191–6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 Reports a decline in the strength of the Gulf Stream of about 15%, since mid-20th century. This has adverse implications for agriculture, energy use and human well-being, especially in Western Europe.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  103. Butler CD. Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world. Infect Dis Poverty. 2012;1:5. https://doi.org/10.1186/2049-9957-1-5.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  104. Beyrer C, Kamarulzaman A. Ethnic cleansing in Myanmar: the Rohingya crisis and human rights. Lancet. 2017;390(10102):1570–3. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32519-9.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  105. Ahmed R. Latitudes of anxieties. The Bengali-speaking Muslims and the postcolonial state in Assam. In: Pinar Bilgin LHML, editor. Asia in international relations. London: Routledge; 2017.

    Google Scholar 

  106. Gleick PH. Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria. Weather Clim Soc. 2014;6(3):331–40. https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-13-00059.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  107. • Kelley CP, Mohtadi S, Cane MA, Seager R, Kushnir Y. Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2015;112(11):3241–6. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421533112 Documents many links between climate change, drought and the social “milieu” in Syria which have contributed to the war and refugee crisis.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  108. Turner GM. Is global collapse imminent? An updated comparison of the limits to growth with historical data. Melbourne: Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne; 2014. Contract No.: MSSI Research Paper No. 4

    Google Scholar 

  109. Hancock T. It’s the environment, stupid! Declining ecosystem health is THE threat to health in the 21st century. Health Promot Int. 2011;26(s2).

  110. Oppenheimer C. Eruption politics. Nat Geosci. 2015;8:244–5.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  111. •• Gómez-Baggethun E, Naredo JM. In search of lost time: the rise and fall of limits to growth in international sustainability policy. Sustain Sci. 2015;10:385–95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-015-0308-6 Well-documented critique of the ascent of market forces and the failure to progress towards sustainability. Laments more than 4 lost decades since the first global environment conference in Stockholm, in 1972.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  112. • Steffen W, Richardson K, Rockström J, Cornell SE, Fetzer I, Bennett EM, et al. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science. 2015;347:1259855. https://doi.org/10.1126/science Modern version of “Limits to Growth”, though with more guarded language about the possibility of a decline in human population size.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  113. •• Ripple WJ, Wolf C, Newsome TM, Galetti M, Alamgir M, Crist E, et al. World scientists’ warning to humanity: a second notice. BioScience. 2017;67(12):1026–8. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix125 Appeal, approaching desperation, by the world’s scientific community for civilization to alter its course.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  114. Goulson D, Nicholls E, Botías C, Rotheray EL. Bee declines driven by combined stress from parasites, pesticides, and lack of flowers. Science. 2015;347:1255957. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  115. Wikelski M, Tertitski G. Living sentinels for climate change effects. Science. 2016;352:775–6. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf6544.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  116. Hallmann CA, Sorg M, Jongejans E, Siepel H, Hofland N, Schwan H, et al. More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas. PLoS One. 2017;12(10):e0185809. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  117. Soskolne CL, Butler CD, Ijsselmuiden C, London L, von Schirnding Y. Toward a global agenda for research in environmental epidemiology. Epidemiology. 2007;18(1):162–6. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000248480.19983.ba.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  118. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100. https://www.unorg/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017html. 2017.

  119. Butzer K. Collapse, environment, and society. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2012;109:3632–9. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114845109

  120. Tainter JA. The collapse of complex societies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1988. 250 p. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114845109

  121. Harper K. The fate of Rome. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press; 2017. 440 p

  122. André C, Platteau J-P. Land relations under unbearable stress: Rwanda caught in the Malthusian trap. J Econ Behav Organ. 1998;34(1):1–47.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  123. Butler CD. Entrapment: global ecological and/or local demographic? Reflections upon reading the BMJ’s “six billion day” special issue. Ecosyst Health. 2000;6(3):171–80.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  124. Myers N, Simon JL. Scarcity or abundance? A debate on the environment. New York: W.H. Norton; 1994. 276 p

  125. McMichael AJ, Butler CD, Folke C. New visions for addressing sustainability. Science. 2003;302:1919–20.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

I thank Emeritus Professor Colin Soskolne, two reviewers, and the editor for their helpful comments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Health Research Institute, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia

    Colin D. Butler

  2. Campus Visitor, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

    Colin D. Butler

  3. Principal Research Fellow, College of Arts, Humanities & Social Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia

    Colin D. Butler

Authors
  1. Colin D. Butler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Colin D. Butler.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The author declares that there are no conflicts of interest.

Human and Animal Rights and Informed Consent

This article does not contain any studies with human or animal subjects performed by any of the authors.

Additional information

This article is part of the Topical Collection on Global Environmental Health and Sustainability

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 17 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Butler, C.D. Planetary Epidemiology: Towards First Principles. Curr Envir Health Rpt 5, 418–429 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-018-0220-1

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-018-0220-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation