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Analysis of 100% renewable energy for Iran in 2030: integrating solar PV, wind energy and storage

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Abstract

The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy sources more important than in the past. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the twenty-first century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system in Iran by 2030 using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of renewable energy technologies, least-cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a country-wide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the country-wide scenario, renewable energy generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, the renewable energy generated was able to fulfil both the electricity demand of the power sector and the substantial electricity demand for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 to 40.3 €/MWh. The levelized cost of electricity of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison with other low-carbon but high-cost alternatives such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option.

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Abbreviations

a:

Annual/years

A-CAES:

Adiabatic compressed air energy storage

BP:

British Petroleum

Capex:

Capital Expenditure

CCGT:

Combined cycle gas turbine

CCS:

Carbon capture and storage

CO2 :

Carbon dioxide

COP21:

Conference of the Parties—the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference

crf:

Capital recovery factor

CSP:

Concentrating solar thermal power

E curt :

Curtailed excess energy

E demand :

Electricity demand

E gen :

Annual electricity generation

E stor,ch :

Electricity for charging storage

E stor,disch :

Electricity from discharging storage

EIA:

US Energy Information Administration

el :

Electric units

FLH:

Full load hours

h:

Hour

HVDC:

High voltage direct current

IEA:

International Energy Agency

instCap:

Installed capacity

km:

Kilometer

kWh:

Kilowatt hour

LCOC:

Levelized cost of curtailment

LCOE:

Levelized cost of electricity

LCOS:

Levelized cost of storage

LCOW:

Levelized cost of water

m3 :

Cubic meter

MENA:

Middle East and North Africa

min:

Minimum

MW:

Megawatt

MWh:

Megawatt hour

OCGT:

Open cycle gas turbine

OPEC:

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

Opex:

Operating and maintenance expenditures

Opexfix :

Fixed operational expenditures

Opexvar :

Variable operational expenditures

PHS:

Pumped hydro storage

PtG:

Power-to-gas

PV:

Solar photovoltaic

rampCost:

Cost of ramping

RE:

Renewable Energy

RoR:

Run-of-River

SC:

Self-consumption

SNG:

Synthetic natural gas

SoC:

State-of-charge

stor:

Storage technologies

SWRO:

Seawater reverse osmosis

t :

Technology

tech:

All modeled technologies

TES:

Thermal energy storage

th :

Thermal units

totRamp:

Sum of power ramping values

TPES:

Total primary energy supply

TWh:

Terawatt hour

UTC:

Coordinated Universal Time

WACC:

Weighted average cost of capital

η :

Efficiency

€:

Euro

∀:

For all

∑:

N-Ary summation

∊:

Small Element Of

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes (Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation) for the ‘Neo-Carbon Energy’ project under the Number 40101/14. The authors would like to thank Michael Child for proofreading.

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Aghahosseini, A., Bogdanov, D., Ghorbani, N. et al. Analysis of 100% renewable energy for Iran in 2030: integrating solar PV, wind energy and storage. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 15, 17–36 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-017-1373-4

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