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Detecting crucial dispersal pathways using a virtual ecology approach: A case study of the mirid bug Stenotus rubrovittatus

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Abstract

Detecting dispersal pathways is important both for understanding species range expansion and for managing nuisance species. However, direct detection is difficult. Here, we propose detecting these crucial pathways using a virtual ecology approach, simulating species dynamics using models, and virtual observations. As a case study, we developed a dispersal model based on cellular automata for the pest insect Stenotus rubrovittatus and simulated its expansion. We tested models for species expansion based on four landscape parameters as candidate pathways; these are river density, road density, area of paddy fields, and area of abandoned farmland, and validated their accuracy. We found that both road density and abandoned area models had prediction accuracy. The simulation requires simple data only to have predictive power, allowing for fast modeling and swift establishment of management plans.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO), 3-1-3, Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, 305-8604, Japan

    Takeshi Osawa

  2. Institute for Sustainable Agro-ecosystem Services, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Kazuhisa Yamasaki & Mayura B. Takada

  3. Tohoku Agricultural Research Center, NARO, Morioka, Japan

    Ken Tabuchi

  4. Fukushima Branch, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

    Akira Yoshioka

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  1. Takeshi Osawa
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  2. Kazuhisa Yamasaki
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  3. Ken Tabuchi
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  4. Akira Yoshioka
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  5. Mayura B. Takada
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Correspondence to Takeshi Osawa.

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Osawa, T., Yamasaki, K., Tabuchi, K. et al. Detecting crucial dispersal pathways using a virtual ecology approach: A case study of the mirid bug Stenotus rubrovittatus. Ambio 47, 806–815 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-018-1026-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-018-1026-y

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