Mangroves as a protection from storm surges in a changing climate
- 667 Downloads
Adaptation to climate change includes addressing sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm surges in many coastal areas. Mangroves can substantially reduce vulnerability of the adjacent coastal land from inundation but SLR poses a threat to the future of mangroves. This paper quantifies coastal protection services of mangroves for 42 developing countries in the current climate, and a future climate change scenario with a 1-m SLR and 10 % intensification of storms. Findings demonstrate that while SLR and increased storm intensity would increase storm surge areas, the greatest impact is from the expected loss of mangroves. Under current climate and mangrove coverage, 3.5 million people and GDP worth roughly US $400 million are at risk. In the future climate change scenario, vulnerable population and GDP at risk would increase by 103 and 233 %. The greatest risk is in East Asia, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines as well as Myanmar.
KeywordsClimate change Coastal protection Mangroves Storm surge
We would like to thank Chandra Giri (United States Geological Survey) for providing the mangrove presence data necessary to conduct the analysis. We extend a special thanks to Anna McIvor (University of Cambridge) for her insight on the analysis, particularly the formulation of the wave attenuation functions. We also thank Mark Spalding (University of Cambridge and The Nature Conservancy) for his guidance on the mangrove results, Ed Barbier (University of Wyoming) for his thoughtful review of this research, Peter Mumby (University of Queensland), and Mike Beck (The Nature Conservancy) for their insights on this analysis. We are thankful to Zahirul Huque Khan (Institute of Water Modeling, Bangladesh) for sharing the technical analysis of mangrove afforestation in Hatia island. We also thank the participants of the “State of the Knowledge of the Protective Services and Values of Mangrove and Coral Reef Ecosystems”, organized by The Nature Conservancy and the World Bank WAVES Partnership, at the University of California, Santa Cruz, United States, December 3–4, 2014. We also thank the participants of the presentation at the Association of American Geographers Annual Conference, Chicago, US, April 25, 2015.
- Barbier, E. 2009. Valuation of ecosystem services. In Ecosystem-based management for the oceans: Applying resilience thinking, ed. K. McLeod, and H. Leslie. Washington, DC: Island Press.Google Scholar
- Bright, E., P. Coleman, and A. King. 2006. Landscan 2005. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN.Google Scholar
- Dasgupta, S., M. Huq, Z. Huq Khan, M.M. Zahid Ahmed, N. Mukherjee, M.F. Khan, and K. Pandey. 2010. Vulnerability of Bangladesh to cyclones in a changing climate. 5280. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
- Dobson, J.E., E.A. Brlght, P.R. Coleman, R.C. Durfee, and B.A. Worley. 2000. LandScan: A global population database for estimating populations at risk. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing 66: 849–857.Google Scholar
- FAO. 2007 The world’s mangroves 1980–2005, FAO Forest Strategy Paper 153.Google Scholar
- Giri, C., E. Ochieng, L.L. Tieszen, Z. Zhu, A. Singh, T. Loveland, J. Masek, and N. Duke. 2010. Status and distribution of mangrove forests of the world using earth observation satellite data. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 1–6.Google Scholar
- Hamilton, S., and D. Casey. 2014. Creation of a high spatiotemporal resolution global database of continuous mangrove forest cover for the 21st Century (CGMFC-21): A big-data fusion approach. arXiv:1412.0722.
- Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson-Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, et al. 2015. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: Evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming is highly dangerous. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 15: 20059–20179.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Hay, C.C., et al. 2015. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise. Nature 517.7535: 481–484.Google Scholar
- Hoozemans, F.M.J., M. Marchand, and H.A. Pennekamp. 1993. Sea level rise: A global vulnerability assessment. 2nd revised edition. The Hague: Delft Hydraulics and Tidal Waters Division, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management.Google Scholar
- IPCC. 2013. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.Google Scholar
- Institute for Water Modeling (IWM). 2000. Effect of afforestation on storm surge propagation for coastal embankment rehabilitation project. Dhaka: IWM, Mimeo.Google Scholar
- Jacob, T., et al. 2012. Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise. Nature 482.7386: 514–518.Google Scholar
- Knutson, T.R., et al. 2013. Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty-first-century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios. Journal of Climate 26.17: 6591–6617.Google Scholar
- Knutson, T.R., et al. 2010. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience 3.3: 157–163.Google Scholar
- Lange, G.M., S. Dasgupta, T. Thomas, S. Murray, B. Blankespoor, K. Sander, and T. Essam. 2010. Economics of adaptation to climate change-ecosystem services. The World Bank Discussion Paper No. 7.Google Scholar
- McIvor, A., I. Moller, T. Spencer, and M.D. Spalding. 2012. Reduction of wind and swell by mangroves. The nature conservancy. Natural Coastal Protection Series: Report 1: Cambridge Coastal Research Unit Working Paper 40.Google Scholar
- McIvor, A., T. Spencer, M. Spalding, C. Lacambra, and I. Möller. 2015. Chapter 14 - mangroves, tropical cyclones, and coastal hazard risk reduction A2 - Shroder, John F. In Coastal and marine hazards, risks, and disasters, ed. J.T. Ellis, and D.J. Sherman, 403–429. Boston: Elsevier.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Mcleod, E., and R.V. Salm. 2006. Managing mangroves for resilience to climate change, 64. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN.Google Scholar
- Narayan, S., M. Beck, B. Reguero, I. Losada, B. van Wesenbeeck, N. Pontee, J. Sanchirico, J. Ingram, et al. 2016. The benefits, costs and effectiveness of natural and nature-based coastal defenses. Paper submitted to PLOS.Google Scholar
- Nicholls, R.J., S. Brown, and S. Hanson. 2010. Economics of coastal zone: Adaptation to climate change. The World Bank Environment Department Paper No. 10. http://beta.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/documents/DCCDP_10_CoastalZoneAdaptation.pdf.
- Pinsky, M.L., G. Guannel, and K.K. Arkema. 2013. Quantifying wave attenuation to inform coastal habitat conservation. Ecosphere 4: art95.Google Scholar
- Sheng, Y.P., Lapetina, A., and Ma, G. 2012. The reduction of storm surge by vegetation canopies: Three‐dimensional simulations. Geophysical Research Letters 39.Google Scholar
- Spalding, M., M. Kainuma, and L. Collins. 2010. World atlas of mangroves, 319. London: Earthscan.Google Scholar
- UNEP-WCMC. 2006. In the front line: Shoreline protection and other ecosystem services from mangroves and coral reefs, 33. Cambridge: UNEP-WCMC.Google Scholar
- United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. 2011. Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction: Revealing risk, redefining development. Geneva: United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.Google Scholar
- Wolanski, E. 2006. Synthesis of the protective functions of coastal forests and trees against natural hazards. In Coastal protection in the aftermath of the Indian Ocean tsunami: What role for forests and trees?, Braatz, S., S. Fortuna, J. Broadhead, and R. Leslie, ed. Proceedings of the Regional Technical Workshop, Khao Lak, Thailand, August 28–31, 2006.Google Scholar