Advertisement

Ambio

, Volume 44, Issue 6, pp 557–568 | Cite as

Twentieth century droughts and agriculture: Examples from impacts on soybean production in Kentucky, USA

  • Kortney E. Craft
  • Rezaul Mahmood
  • Stephen A. King
  • Gregory Goodrich
  • Jun Yan
Report

Abstract

Drought is a significant natural hazard that slowly evolves over time. Because of its character, drought is difficult to monitor and impacts are often poorly documented. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors that are prone to drought. The objective of this research is to assess the impacts of drought on soybean production and revenue in Kentucky. Soybeans are one of Kentucky’s most important commodities. In this study, impacts of 1930–1931, 1940–1942, 1952–1955, 1987–1988, 1999–2000, and 2007 droughts were considered. It was found that over the recent years, up to 56 % of the revenue from soybeans was lost due to drought. During the first half of the twentieth century, revenue loss reached up to 77 %. This research is valuable to the general public as well as planners and policy makers. Proper documentation of impacts of past droughts will help identify drought vulnerabilities and results in better risk management and mitigation.

Keywords

Soybean Drought Agriculture Impact assessment 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers and the editor for valuable comments and suggestions which helped to improve this paper. Thanks also go to Mr. William Rodgers for preparation of Fig. 1.

References

  1. Alley, W.M. 1984. The Palmer Drought Severity Index: Limitations and assumptions. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23: 1100–1109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Andreadis, K., M.E. Clark, A. Wood, A. Hamlet, and D. Lettenmaier. 2005. Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6: 985–1001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Cook, E.R., R. Seager, M.A. Cane, and D.W. Stahle. 2007. North American drought: reconstructions, causes, consequences. Earth-Science Reviews 81: 93–134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Craft, K., R. Mahmood, S.A. King, G. Goodrich, and J. Yan. 2013. Drought and corn in Kentucky. Applied Geography 45: 353–362.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Diaz, H.F. 1983. Drought in the United States—some aspects of major dry and wet periods in the contiguous United States, 1895–1981. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 22: 3–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Egli, D.B. 2008. Is early planning the key to high soybean yields? Corn and Soybean Newsletter. Lexington, KY: University of Kentucky. http://www.uky.edu/Ag/CornSoy/cornsoy9_1.htm.
  7. Fraisse, C.W., V.E. Cabrera, N.E. Breuer, J. Baez, J. Quispe, and E. Matos. 2008. El Niño – Southern oscillation influences on soybean yields in eastern Paraguay. International Journal of Climatology 28: 1399–1407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Frederick, K.D., and G.E. Schwarz. 2000. Socioeconomic impacts of climate variability and change on U.S. water resources. Discussion Paper 00-21. Resource for the Future, Washington, DC. Accessed April 13, 2014, from http://www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-00-21.pdf.
  9. Harrison, L.H., and J.C. Klotter. 1997. A new history of Kentucky. Lexington, KY: University of Kentucky Press.Google Scholar
  10. Hartmann, D.L., A.M.G. Klein Tank, M. Rusticucci, L.V. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, Y. Charabi, F.J. Dentener, E.J. Dlugokencky, D.R. Easterling, A. Kaplan, B.J. Soden, P.W. Thorne, M. Wild, and P.M. Zhai. 2013. Observations: Atmosphere and surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  11. Hayes, M.J., M.D. Svoboda, C.L. Knutson, and D.A. Wilhite. 2002. Estimating the economic impacts of drought. Proceedings of the 14th conference of Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society.Google Scholar
  12. Heim Jr., R.R. 2002. A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83: 1149–1165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Horridge, M., J. Madden, and G. Wittwer. 2005. The impact of the 2002–2003 drought on Australia. Journal of Policy Modeling 27: 285–308.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Hu, G., and G.D. Willson. 2002. Effects of temperature anomalies on Palmer Drought Severity Index in the central United States. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1899–1911.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. IPCC. 2013. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  16. Kirtman, B., S.B. Power, J.A. Adedoyin, G.J. Boer, R. Bojariu, I. Camilloni, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A.M. Fiore, M. Kimoto, G.A. Meehl, M. Prather, A. Sarr, C. Schär, R. Sutton, G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi, and H.J. Wang. 2013. Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability. In Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  17. Kogan, F.N. 1995. Drought’s of the late 1980s in the United States as derived from NOAA Polar-orbiting satellite data. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76: 655–668.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Liu, F., C.R. Jensen, and M.N. Andersen. 2004. Drought stress effect on carbohydrate concentration in soybean leaves and pods during early reproductive development: its implication in altering pod set. Field Crop Research 86: 1–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Lott, N., and T. Ross. 2006. Tracking and evaluating U.S. billion dollar weather disasters, 1980–2005. In AMS Forum: Environmental Risk and Impacts on Society: Successes and Challenges. Atlanta, GA: American Meteorological Society, 1.2. Accessed April 20, 2014, from http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/papers/200686ams1.2nlfree.pdf.
  20. Mishra, V., and K.A. Cherkauer. 2010. Retrospective droughts in the crop growing season: Implications to corn and soybean yield in the Midwestern United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 150: 1030–1045.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2009. Kentucky Quick Statistics. Accessed 2009, from http://www.nass.usda.gov.
  22. National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2010. Kentucky Quick Statistics. Accessed April, 2010, from http://www.nass.usda.gov.
  23. National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2014. Quick stats: Soybeans—production, measured in BU, by state, survey years 1924–2013. Washington, DC: United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service. Accessed April 19, 2014, from http://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/3C7C19B9-5237-31F4-AF6E-4A00DB3571EC.
  24. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2007a. State of the Climate Drought Annual Report. Accessed September, 2010, from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php?report=drought&year=2007&month=ann.
  25. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2007b. June 14, 2007 Drought Statement. Accessed September, 2010, from http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/?n=07june15_drought.
  26. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2010. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Accessed 2010, from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries.
  27. NDMC. 2013. Comparison of major drought indices: Palmer drought severity index. Lincoln, NE: The National Drought Mitigation Center. Accessed August 17, 2013, from http://drought.unl.edu/Planning/Monitoring/ComparisonofIndicesIntro/PDSI.aspx.
  28. NIDIS. 2007. National Integrated Drought Information System Implementation Plan: A pathway for national resilience. Washington, DC: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.Google Scholar
  29. Oya, T., A.L. Nepomuceno, N. Neumaier, J.R.B. Farias, S. Tobita, and O. Ito. 2004. Drought tolerance characterization of drought tolerance of various Brazilian soybean cultivars in the field. Plant Production Science 7: 129–137.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Palmer, W.C. 1965. Meteorological Drought. Research Paper 45. Washington D.C.: U.S. Weather Bureau.Google Scholar
  31. Palmer, J., E.J. Dunphy, and P. Reese. 1996. Managing drought stressed soybeans in the southeast. Drought Publication Number DRO-24. Clemson, SC: The Clemson University Cooperative Extension Service.Google Scholar
  32. Podesta, G.P., C.D. Messina, M.O. Grondona, and G.O. Magrin. 1999. Associations between grain crop yields in central-eastern Argentina and El Niño-southern oscillation. Journal of Applied Meteorology 38: 1488–1498.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Pulwarty, R.S., D.A. Wilhite, D.M. Diodato, and D.I. Nelson. 2007. Drought in changing environments: creating a roadmap, vehicles, and drivers. Natural Hazards Observer XXXI(5). Accessed April 13, 2014, from http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/o/archives/2007/may07/drought.html.
  34. Quiring, S.M. 2009. Developing objective operational definitions for monitoring drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 48: 1217–1229.Google Scholar
  35. Riebsame, W.E., S.A. Chagnon Jr, and T.R. Karl. 1991. Drought and natural resource management in the United States: Impacts and implications of the 1987–89 drought. Boulder: Westview Press.Google Scholar
  36. Rushton, K.R., and C. Ward. 1979. The estimation of groundwater recharge. Journal of Hydrology 41: 345–361.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Samarah, N.H., R.E. Mullen, S.R. Cianzio, and P. Scott. 2006. Dehydrin-like proteins in soybean seeds in response to drought stress during seed filling. Crop Science 41: 2141–2150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Sinclair, T.R., L.C. Purcell, C.A. King, C.H. Sneller, P. Chen, and V. Vadez. 2007. Drought tolerance and yield increase of soybean resulting from improved symbiotic N2 fixation. Field Crop Research 101: 68–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Smith, A.B., and R.W. Katz. 2013. US billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: Data sources, trends, accuracy and biases. Natural Hazards 67: 387–410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Sonmez, F.K., A.U. Komuscu, A. Erkan, and E. Turgu. 2005. An analysis of spatial and temporal dimension of drought vulnerability in Turkey using the Standard Precipitation Index. Natural Hazards 35: 243–264.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Svoboda, M., D. LeComte, M. Hayes, R. Heim, K. Gleason, J. Angel, B. Rippey, R. Tinker, M. Palecki, D. Stooksbury, D. Miskus, and S. Stephens. 2002. The drought monitor. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society 83: 1181–1190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. USDA Economic Research Unit (ERS). 2013. U.S. drought 2012: Farm and food impacts. Washington, DC: United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Accessed April 13, 2014, from http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/in-the-news/us-drought-2012-farm-and-food-impacts.aspx.
  43. USDA Economic Research Unit (ERS). 2014. State fact sheets: Kentucky. Washington, DC: United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Accessed April 20, 2014, from http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/state-fact-sheets/state-data.aspx.
  44. Wardlow, B.D., M. Hayes, M. Svoboda, T. Tadesse, and K.H. Smith. 2009. Sharpening the focus on drought—new monitoring and assessment tools at the National Drought Mitigation Center. Earthzine. Accessed April 13, 2014, from http://www.earthzine.org/2009/03/30/sharpening-the-focus-on-drought-%E2%80%93-new-monitoring-and-assessment-tools-at-the-national-drought-mitigation-center/.
  45. Wilhite, D.A. 1993. Drought assessment, management, and planning: Theory and case studies. Dordrecht: Kluwer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Wilhite, D.A., W.E. Easterling, and D.A. Wood. 1987. Planning for drought: Toward a reduction of societal vulnerability. Boulder: Westview Press.Google Scholar
  47. Wu, H., and D.A. Wilhite. 2004. An operational agricultural drought risk assessment model for Nebraska, USA. Natural Hazards 33: 1–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kortney E. Craft
    • 1
  • Rezaul Mahmood
    • 2
  • Stephen A. King
    • 3
  • Gregory Goodrich
    • 2
  • Jun Yan
    • 2
  1. 1.Jefferson Community and Technical CollegeLouisvilleUSA
  2. 2.Department of Geography and GeologyWestern Kentucky UniversityBowling GreenUSA
  3. 3.Department of AgricultureWestern Kentucky UniversityBowling GreenUSA

Personalised recommendations