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Fertility Intentions and Risk Management: Exploring the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe During Transition

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Abstract

Between 1985 and 1995, fertility in Eastern Europe declined from 2.2 children per woman to merely 1.5 on region-average. Previous research has emphasized mainly the economic turmoil during transition or the influx of new ideas regarding fertility and family relations. This article suggests that applying a risk management perspective on fertility patterns may put additional light on the reasons behind the fertility decline in post-communist Europe. The complexity of modern social systems has made people increasingly dependent on the state for risk evaluation and risk management. The article formulates the hypothesis that transition itself disrupted the mental models that helped people to navigate among the risks associated to having and raising children. Left to their own devices, women in Eastern Europe became more inclined to postpone childbirth or discard this option altogether.

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Notes

  1. Eastern Europe is here defined as all the formerly communist or socialist countries located in the eastern, central, and south eastern parts of Europe. After the break-ups of Czechoslovakia, the Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia, according to this definition 21 countries are here seen as Eastern European: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine.

  2. Only in Poland and Ukraine was the fertility decline below 30%: 23 and 27%, respectively.

  3. Another important narrative underlines biological and technological determinants of fertility. One of the major arguments of this narrative is that fertility is responsive to mortality. Modernization leads to a decline in mortality, hence creating weaker incentives to have many children (van de Kaa 1996, p. 402).

  4. A composite index measuring average achievement in three basic dimensions of human development—a long and healthy life, knowledge, and a decent standard of living (see further UNDP Human Development Report).

  5. Fertility levels in the region continued to fall during the 1990s and most of the 2000s to as low as 1.1–1.3 children per woman. Only in some of the former republics of Yugoslavia (FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia) and in Albania fertility remained above 1.5. (GGP Database; WHO Database; World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. Highlights. NY: United Nations).

  6. In 1981, the USSR introduced legislation that guaranteed one room for newlyweds under thirty, one-room apartments for parents with one child, and two-room apartments for families with two children (David 1982).

  7. The scale of income consists of 10 steps. The differences between the early- and mid-1990s were in some cases remarkable: Bulgaria 31.1% (1990)–47.3% (1997), Belarus 29.6–51.6% (1996), and Latvia 8.9–46.9% (1996).

  8. The Gini coefficient measures inequality and distribution of wealth. The score 1 means that only one person possesses all wealth. The score 0 indicates perfect equality, that is, everyone gets the same amount of wealth.

  9. In France and Portugal, only 15–30% trusted most people. In Austria, Belgium, Great Britain, Ireland, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland, 31–50% of the populations trusted most people. There was also a group of states with very high trust levels: Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden, where more than half of the population trust other people.

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  1. Södertörn University, Alfred Nobels Allé 7, 141 89, Huddinge, Sweden

    Johnny Rodin

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Rodin, J. Fertility Intentions and Risk Management: Exploring the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe During Transition. AMBIO 40, 221–230 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0133-1

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