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Table 11 Effects of house price expectations on (a) expenditures and (b) average probabilities of purchase from tobit model (at various points of the wealth distribution)

From: Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future house prices

  Other Housing (Tobit) Car purchase (Tobit) Other big ticket items (Tobit) Food and other non-durables (log)
Expectation variables\(^{a}\) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
  Within postal codes\(^{b}\)   Within postal codes   Within postal codes   Within postal codes
(a)
Large certain drop in HP\(^{c}\)
   At median net wealth \(-\)876,501** \(-\)811,159*** \(-\)11,580* \(-\)12,975** 260.1 \(-\)705.2 0.0319 0.0402
   At 80th percentile of net wealth \(-\)676,699** \(-\)483,728*** \(-\)4995 \(-\)5105 652.0 \(-\)667.8 0.0431 0.0566
Uncertainty in HP\(^{d}\)
   At median net wealth \(-\)229,984** \(-\)507,576*** 3761 1871 646.9 69.92 0.0255 0.0102
   At 80th percentile of net wealth \(-\)180,981** \(-\)380,539*** 4063 2793 1497** 626.2 0.0486* 0.0295
Income higher than current\(^{e}\) \(-\)47,607 50,864 2694 \(-\)843.1 \(-\)315.5 222.3 0.0769*** \(-\)0.106***
Income lower than current 155,664* \(-\)143,444 2137 2104 \(-\)282.4 \(-\)669.6 \(-\)0.0140 0.00542
Observations\(^{f}\) 5019 5019 5019 5019 5019 5019 5019 5019
Of which uncensored\(^{g}\) 40 40 412 412 1959 1959 5019 5019
  Other Housing (Tobit) Car purchase (Tobit) Other big ticket items (Tobit)  
Expectation variables\(^{a}\) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
  Within postal codes\(^{b}\)   Within postal codes   Within postal codes
(b)
Large certain drop in HP\(^{c}\)
   At median net wealth \(-\)0.771** \(-\)0.753*** \(-\)5.64** \(-\)5.95*** 1.35 \(-\)3.55
   At 80th percentile of net wealth \(-\)1.22*** \(-\)0.935*** \(-\)3.05 \(-\)2.87 3.48 \(-\)3.45
Uncertainty in HP\(^{d}\)
   At median net wealth \(-\)0.535* \(-\)0.600*** 2.51 1.02 3.41 0.360
   At 80th percentile of net wealth \(-\)0.729** \(-\)0.709*** 2.96 1.66 8.18*** 3.34
Income higher than current\(^{e}\) \(-\)0.124 0.0841 1.93 \(-\)0.477 \(-\)1.65 1.15
Income lower than current 0.570 \(-\)0.231 1.51 1.21 \(-\)1.48 \(-\)3.40
Observations\(^{f}\) 5019 5019 5019 5019 5019 5019
Of which uncensored\(^{g}\) 40 40 412 412 1959 1959
  1. *** p \(<\) 0.01, ** p \(<\) 0.05, * p \(<\) 0.1
  2. \(^{a}\) Control variables include: interactions of expectation dummies with log net wealth, gender, age brackets, number of persons in the household dummies, children dummy, couple dummy, labour status dummies for respondent and partner (if any), positive and negative income shocks dummies and in columns 1, 3, 5 and 7 (in panel a) municipality dummies instead of postal code dummies
  3. \(^{b}\) Population weights are used in all columns (both in parameter estimation and in the computation of the effects)
  4. \(^{c}\) Large certain drop = 1 if respondent assigns all ten points to “large drop (more tan 6 %)”
  5. Large certain drop = 0 if respondent assigns all ten points to any other of the four other options
  6. \(^{d}\) Uncertainty = 1 if respondent assigns points to more than one option
  7. Uncertainty = 0 if respondent assigns ten points to any of the 4 options different from “large drop (\(>\)6 %)”.
  8. \(^{e}\) Income higher (lower) than current = 1 if future expected income higher(lower) than current, 0 otherwise
  9. \(^{f}\) Sample sizes vary slightly across imputations. The numbers shown correspond to the smaller sample size
  10. \(^{g}\) Sample sizes vary slightly across imputations. The numbers shown correspond to the smaller number of uncensored observations
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