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Table 10 Effects of house price expectations on average probabilities of purchase (at various points of the wealth distribution; probit estimates)

From: Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future house prices

  Other housing Car purchase Other big ticket items
Memo: % of households buying 0.57 9.42 41.99
  (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Expectation variables\(^{a}\) Full sample Within postal codes Full sample Within postal codes Full sample Within postal codes
  Weights No weights Weights No weights Weights No weights
Large certain drop in HP\(^{b}\)
   At median net wealth \(-\)0.826** \(-\)4.06 \(-\)4.46** \(-\)11.7*** 2.80 \(-\)7.26**
   At 80th percentile of net wealth \(-\)1.24*** \(-\)4.31 \(-\)2.83 \(-\)11.3*** 2.07 \(-\)6.46**
Uncertainty in HP\(^{c}\)
   At median net wealth \(-\)0.629* \(-\)5.88** 2.67* 0.296 8.09*** 0.461
   At 80th percentile of net wealth \(-\)0.803** \(-\)8.27*** 2.64 \(-\)0.334 12.5*** 1.59
Income higher than current\(^{d}\) \(-\)0.145 11.8* 2.14 1.56 0.724 4.95**
Income lower than current 0.656 \(-\)4.43 1.77 1.83 \(-\)0.007 \(-\)1.91
Observations\(^{e}\) 5019 381 5019 2158 5019 4189
  1. *** p \(<\) 0.01, ** p \(<\) 0.05, * p \(<\) 0.1
  2. \(^{a}\) Control variables include: interactions of expectation dummies with log net wealth, gender, age brackets, number of persons in the household dummies, children dummy, couple dummy, labour status dummies for respondent and partner (if any), positive and negative income shocks dummies and in columns 1, 3, 5 and 7 municipality size dummies instead of postal code dummies
  3. \(^{b}\) Large certain drop = 1 if respondent assigns all ten points to “large drop (more tan 6 %)”
  4. Large certain drop = 0 if respondent assigns all ten points to any other of the 4 other options
  5. \(^{c}\) Uncertainty = 1 if respondent assigns points to more than one option
  6. Uncertainty = 0 if respondent assigns ten points to any of the 4 options different from “large drop (\(>\)6 %)”
  7. \(^{d}\) Income higher (lower) than current = 1 if future expected income higher(lower) than current, 0 otherwise
  8. \(^{e}\) Sample sizes vary slightly across imputations. The numbers shown correspond to the smaller sample size
  9. \(^{f}\) Probabilities are shown in percentage terms