Assessment Based on the Forecast Error for the Transition Period between the Jianghuai Meiyu and North China Rainy Seasons in 2016

Abstract

During the transition period between the Jianghuai Meiyu and North China rainy seasons in 2016, there was a high-impact rainstorm event, connecting these two rainy seasons. However, both the short and medium range forecasts predicted a rain band that was too far south; this error can have serious implications for flood preparedness. This study discusses the causes of the forecast error using the ECMWF deterministic and ensemble models. The results show that the prediction of a too-weak westerly trough at the 500-hPa level is the dominant factor. Specifically, a weaker predicted 500-hPa westerly trough reduces the strength of the low vortex at 850 hPa; correspondingly, the shear line to the east of the vortex and the Meiyu front are weaker and farther south, and the monsoon is also weaker, which causes the large area of humidity convergence to be shifted southward. Finally, the heavy rainfall is located farther south with weaker intensity. And vice visa, when a stronger westerly trough is predicted, the location of rain band will be northward. This conclusion may be useful for meteorological decision making in medium range and will help to improve capabilities of risk reduction.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

References

  1. Bougeault, P., Toth, Z., Bishop, C., Brown, B., Burridge, D., Chen, D.H., Ebert, B., Fuentes, M., Hamill, T.M., Mylne, K., Nicolau, J., Paccagnella, T., Park, Y.Y., Parsons, D., Raoult, B., Schuster, D., Dias, P.S., Swinbank, R., Takeuchi, Y., Tennant, W., Wilson, L., Worley, S.: The THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 91, 1059–1072 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Ding, Y.H.: Summer monsoon rainfall in China. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 70, 373–396 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Ding, Q., Wang, B.: Circumglobal teleconnection in the northern hemisphere summer. J. Clim. 18, 3483–3503 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Ding, Y.H., Zhang, Y., et al.: Analysis of the large scale circulation features and synoptic systems in East Asia during the intensive observation period of GAME/HUBEX. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 79, 277–300 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Ding, Y., Liu, J., Sun, Y., et al.: A study of the synoptic climatology of the Meiyu system in East Asia. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 31, 1082–1101 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Gao, Y., Xu, S., Guo, Q., et al.: Some Problems about East Asian Monsoon (in Chinese). Science Press, Beijing (1962)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Gentiloni, F., Johansson E., Greenall T., et al.: Final Report on 1998 Floods in the People's Republic of China, UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (1998)

  8. Gu, W., Wang, L., Hu, Z., et al.: Interannual variations of the first rainy season precipitation over South China. J. Clim. 31, 623–640 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Huang, R., Chen, J., Wang, L., Lin, Z.: Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the east Asian monsoon system. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 29, 910–942 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Kang, Z., Ma, J.: Influence of the circulation at middle and high level on the position of Meiyu rainbelt. The 9th National Conference on disaster weather forecast technology (2012)

  11. Liu, H., He, M., Wang, B., et al.: Advances in low-level jet research and future prospects. Acta Meteor. Sinica. 72, 191–206 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Miller, M., Buizza, R., Haseler, J., et al.: Increased resolution in the ECMWF deterministic and ensemble prediction systems. ECMWF Newsletter. 124, 10–16 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Si, D., Ding, Y., Liu, Y.: Decadal northward shift of the Meiyu belt and the possible cause. Chin. Sci. Bull. 55, 68–73 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Su, T., Xue, F.: The intraseasonal variation of summer monsoon circulation and rainfall in East Asia (in Chinese). Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 34, 611–628 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Swinbank, R., Kyouda, M., Buchanan, P., Froude, L., Hamill, T.M., Hewson, T.D., Keller, J.H., Matsueda, M., Methven, J., Pappenberger, F., Scheuerer, M., Titley, H.A., Wilson, L., Yamaguchi, M.: The TIGGE project and its achievements. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 97, 49–67 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Tanaka, M.: Intraseasonal oscillation and the onset and retreat dares of the summer monsoon over east, Southeast Asia and the western Pacific region using GMS high cloud amount data. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 70, 613–629 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Tao, S.: Some questions in the study of Monsoon. In: Review and Prospects of the Developments Of Atmospheric Sciences, pp. 35–36. China Meteorological Press, Beijing (1996)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Tao, S., Chen, L.: A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. In: Chang, C.P., Krishnamurti, T.N. (eds.) Monsoon Meteorology, pp. 60–92. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1987)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Wang, B.: The Asian Monsoon, p. 845. Springer, New York (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Wang, Y., Ma, J., Dai, K.: Ensemble-based analysis of medium-range forecast change and uncertainty for the 20 July 2016 severe heavy rainfall over North China. Meteorol. Monogr. 44, 53–56 (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  21. Xu, W., Jiang, J.: Characteristics of the Rainbelt of Meiyu between interannual and interdecadal climate variations. Journal of Nanjing University (Nat. Sci.). 40, 292–303 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  22. Yin, S., Ma, J.: Application research of big data in heavy rainfall forecast model in Meiyu season. In: Sun, S., Fu, M., Xu, L. (eds.) Signal and Information Processing, Networking and Computers. ICSINC 2018. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol. 550. Springer, Singapore (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Zhao, H.: The rainy season in North China (in Chinese). Meteorol. Monogr. 20, 3–8 (1994)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Zhao, X., Wei, J., Zhu, D.: Analysis about function of jet of the persistent Meiy rainstorm. J. Meteor. Sci. 31, 211–216 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Zhu, K.: Southeast monsoon and rainfall in China (in Chinese). Chin. J. Geogr. Soc. 1, 1–27 (1934)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was jointly supported by the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2015BAC03B04), and the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (GASI-IPOVAI-03). We thanks Prof. Fuqing Zhang for constructive suggestion and comments.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

Jie Ma and Ruiqiang Ding designed the research. Zhiping Zong performed the data analysis, prepared all figures and led the writing of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ruiqing Ding.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Responsible Editor: Kyong-Hwan Seo.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ma, J., Zong, Z., Jianping, L. et al. Assessment Based on the Forecast Error for the Transition Period between the Jianghuai Meiyu and North China Rainy Seasons in 2016. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-020-00208-z

Download citation

Keywords

  • Rainy season
  • Risk reduction
  • Forecast error