Abstract
A fertility gap—the difference between a woman’s ideal number of children and her actual number of children—is prevalent in both directions. We investigate the distribution of the fertility gap in India and factors that lead to women exceeding or underachieving their ideal number of children. We find that preference for males has a significant effect, contributing to a negative as well as a positive fertility gap. The probability that a woman exceeds her ideal number of children reduces by 7 percent in 2005–06 and 10 percent in 2015–16 if her first child is male. Further, we find that a husband’s preferences significantly shape the fertility gap. A woman is likely to exceed her ideal number of children by 3–4 percent if her husband prefers a higher number of sons than daughters. A husband’s ideal family size has an effect of similar magnitude as his son preference. Our results point to the important role of gender norms and household perspective in fertility analysis and policy settings and the challenges during fertility transitions.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
The 17 major states included in our analysis account for roughly 90 percent of India’s population and make up around 87 percent of India’s GDP. The remaining 11 states, not included in the analysis, were small with missing or unreliable data points. The states not included are Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Uttrakhand Goa, Mizoram, Sikkim, Arunanchal Pradesh, Meghalaya Jammu, Kashmir and Nagaland.
Respondents who gave a numerical response to the question on the ideal number of children were also asked how many of these children they would like to be boys, how many they would like to be girls, and for how many the sex would not matter. The employed variable, son preference, a binary variable is derived from responses to these questions. We define woman (or husband) as expressing son preference when their ideal number of boys exceeds their ideal number of girls.
Only 3 percent of women express a preference for daughters, that is, they respond that they would like more daughters than sons in their ideal family.
The pattern is similar for NFHS 4; hence, not shown here. Figures for NFHS 4 are available from the authors.
The terms “positive” or “negative” are used in a mathematical sense and only to refer to the sign (+ or −) of the calculated fertility gap.
In the full sample, this variable is available for 36 percent of women in NFHS 3 and 32 percent of women in NFHS 4.
References
Adsera, A. (2006). An economic analysis of the gap between desired and actual fertility: The case of Spain. Review of Economics of the Household, 4(1), 75–95.
Adsera, A. (2011). The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe. Demographic Research, 25(16), 513–544.
Anukriti, S., Bhalotra, S. R., & Tam, H. F., (2016). On the quantity and quality of girls: New evidence on abortion, fertility, and parental investments. IZA Discussion Paper No. 10271.
Arnold, F., Choe, M. K., & Roy, T. K. (1998). Son preference, the family-building process and child mortality in India. Population Studies, 52(3), 301–315.
Arnold, F., Kishor, S., & Roy, T. K. (2002). Sex-selective abortions in India. Population and Development Review, 28(4), 759–785.
Aurino, E. (2017). Do boys eat better than girls in India? Longitudinal evidence on dietary diversity and food consumption disparities among children and adolescents. Economics and Human Biology, 25, 99–111.
Basu, D., & De Jong, R. (2010). Son targeting fertility behavior: Some consequences and determinants. Demography, 47(2), 521–536.
Bhat, P. M., & Zavier, A. F. (2003). Fertility decline and gender bias in Northern India. Demography, 40(4), 637–657.
Bongaarts, J., & Casterline, J. (2013). Fertility transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa different? Population and Development Review, 38, 153–168.
Casterline, J. B., & Agyei-Mensah, S. (2017). Fertility desires and the course of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 43, 84–111.
Chaudhuri, S. (2012). The desire for sons and excess fertility: A household-level analysis of parity progression in India. International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 38(4), 178–186.
Chung, W., & Das Gupta, M. (2007). Why is son preference declining in South Korea? The role of development and public policy, and the implications for China and India (Vol. 4373). Washington, DC: World Bank.
Clark, S. (2000). Son preference and sex composition of children: Evidence from India. Demography, 37(1), 95–108.
Dommaraju, P., & Agadjanian, V. (2009). India’s North-South divide and theories of fertility change. Journal of Population Research, 26(3), 249.
Forrest, W., Arunachalam, D., & Navaneetham, K. (2018). Intimate partner violence and contraceptive use in India: The moderating influence of conflicting fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions. Journal of Biosocial Science, 50(2), 212–226.
Harknett, K., & Hartnett, C. S. (2014). The gap between births intended and births achieved in 22 European countries, 2004–07. Population Studies, 68(3), 265–282.
Ibisomi, L., & Odimegwu, C. (2011). Understanding resolution of differential fertility preferences among couples in Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(4), 98–105.
International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) & Macro International. (2007). National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3), 2005–06: India: (Vol. I). Mumbai: IIPS.
International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) & ICF. (2017). National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), 2015–16: India. Mumbai: IIPS.
Jayachandran, S. (2017). Fertility decline and missing women. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 9(1), 118–139.
Jayachandran, S., & Pande, R. (2017). Why are Indian children so short? The role of birth order and son preference. American Economic Review, 107(9), 2600–2629.
Milazzo, A. (2018). Why are adult women missing? Son preference and maternal survival in India. Journal of Development Economics, 134, 467–484.
Morgan, S. P., & Rackin, H. (2010). The correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States. Population and Development Review, 36(1), 91–118.
Pande, R., & Astone, N. (2007). Explaining son preference in rural India: The independent role of structural versus individual factors. Population Research and Policy Review, 26(1), 1–29.
Rasul, I. (2008). Household bargaining over fertility: Theory and evidence from Malaysia. Journal of Development Economics, 86(2), 215–241.
Rosenblum, D. (2013). The effect of fertility decisions on excess female mortality in India. Journal of Population Economics, 26(1), 147–180.
Testa, M. R., Cavalli, L., & Rosina, A. (2014). The effect of couple disagreement about child-timing intentions: A parity-specific approach. Population and Development Review, 40(1), 31–53.
Weitzman, A. (2014). Women’s and men’s relative status and intimate partner violence in India. Population and Development Review, 40(1), 55–75.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mishra, A., Parasnis, J. Husband, sons and the fertility gap: evidence from India. J Pop Research 38, 71–102 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-021-09254-4
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-021-09254-4