Impact assessment of meteorological drought on rainfed agriculture using drought index and NDVI modeling: a case study of Tikamgarh district, M. P., India

Abstract

Drought, an environmental stress is a major crisis of India. Tikamgarh, a district of Madhya Pradesh, is facing the crisis of drought since the last two decades. Rainfall data of the previous years between 1964–1965 and 2011–2012 (crop year) is obtained from Commissioner Land Record (CLR) and crop yield from resource atlas of Tikamgarh. Drought index shows that 52% of the years have mild to severe drought (rainfall deficit) and 48% have no drought but after 1990–1991; 13 years out of 21 have mild to moderate drought and 1 year has severe drought. The last two decades during 1991–1992 to 2011–2012 suffer from drought. Crop yield (cereals, pulses, and oilseeds) is showing continuously increasing trend since 1964–1965 to 1996–1997 and after continuously decreasing. The maximum yield of cereals and pulses for year 1999–2000 and 1996–1997 is 1924 and 883 kg/ha respectively and oilseeds for 1996–1997 is 1122 kg/ha. NDVI modeling shows that natural vegetation is also showing the impact of rainfall variation as severe (2007), mild (2001), and no drought (2012). Crop yield and natural vegetation show the drought impact during 1964–1965 to 2011–2012. Regression model is showing that district witnessed good to very good rainfall (no drought) for two decades and in two decades rainfall-deficit (mild to severe drought) alternately. Rainfall and agricultural correlation are showing that total agriculture depends on rainfall so rainwater harvesting must be implemented for crop saving in Rabi season.