Variation of October to December rainfall in Tanzania and its association with sea surface temperature

Abstract

Rainfall variability during short rains from October to December (OND) leaves the country vulnerable to floods and droughts. This study used statistical analysis methods (Empirical Orthogonal Function EOF, Singular Value Decomposition SVD, Composite and Correlation analysis) to investigate the variability of OND rainfall and its association to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and how the extreme weather events have been influenced by SSTs. The study showed that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events have a wider and stronger impact on OND rainfall variability over Tanzania than the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with a significant correlation coefficient value of r = 0.77 against r = 0.48, respectively. Analysis revealed that the year of 2015 received less rainfall than that of 1997 even though it had stronger Niño 3.4 signal than that of 1997 due to neutral state conditions of IOD events in 2015 which is associated by weak easterly winds advecting moist air towards the region. The study shows that the area received above average rainfall when El Niño and positive phase of IOD events occurred simultaneously like that of 1997. The rainfall pattern varies to large extent due to SST variability over the western and eastern Indian Ocean. The variability of SST anomalies observed over the western and southeastern Indian Ocean captured the IOD pattern in the first and second SVD mode. Findings of this study will improve our understanding of the occurrence of extreme events, monitoring and issuing early warning of extreme weather events.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

References

  1. Abdi, H. Williams, LJ (2010) Principal component analysis. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews, Computational Statistics, 2(4), pp. 433–459. https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.101

  2. Basalirwa CPK, Odiyo JO, Mngodo RJ, Mpeta EJ (1999) The climatological regions of Tanzania based on the rainfall characteristics. Int J Climatol 19:69–80. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199901)19:1<69::AID-JOC343>3.0.CO;2-M

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Black E, Slingo J, Sperber KR (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian ocean SST. Monthly weather review, 131(1), pp. 74–94. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0074:AOSOTR>2.0.CO;2.Bretherton CS, smith C, Wallace JM (1992) an Intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in the climate data. J Clim 5:541–560

  4. Clark, C.O., P.J. Webster, and J.E. Cole, (2003) Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the Indian Ocean zonal mode and east African coastal rainfall anomalies. J Clim, 16, 548–554, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0548:IVOTRB>2.0.CO;2

  5. Derksen-schrock K, Anderson CL, Gugerty MK (2011) Tanzania: agricultural sector overview (133), pp. 1–18

  6. Habib E (1984) Krajewski WF (2001) estimation of rainfall interstation correlation. Am Meteorol Soc 2:621–629. https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Hastenrath S (2007) Circulation mechanisms of climate anomalies in East Africa and the equatorial Indian ocean. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 43(1–2):25–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2006.06.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. ICPAC (2017) Greater Horn of Africa climate risk and food Part 1 : Regional Analysis

  9. Indeje M, Semazzi FHM, Ogallo LJ (2000) ENSO signals in east African rainfall seasons. Int J Climatol 46:19–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Kijazi AL (2005) Reason CJC (2005) relationships between intraseasonal rainfall variability of coastal Tanzania and ENSO. Theor Appl Climatol 82:153–176. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0129-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Kijazi AL, Reason CJC (2009) Analysis of the 1998 to 2005 drought over the northeastern highlands of Tanzania. Clim Res 38(3):209–223. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00784

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Kijazi AL, Reason CJC (2009) Analysis of the 2006 floods over northern Tanzania. Int J Climatol 29:955–970. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1846

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Limbu PTS, Guirong T (2019) Relationship between the October-December rainfall in Tanzania and the Walker circulation cell over Indian Ocean. Meteorol Z 28:453–469. https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2019/0939

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Mahongo SB, Francis J (2013) Analysis of rainfall variations and trends in coastal Tanzania. Western Indian Ocean J. Mar Sci 11(2):121–133

    Google Scholar 

  15. McSweeney C, New M, Lizcano G (2003) UNDP climate change country profiles. Belize 67(February):27–166. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2826.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Mutai CC, Ward MN (2000) East African rainfall and the tropical circulation/convection on intraseasonal to interannual timescales. J Clim 13:3915–3939. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3915:EARATT>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Nicholson SE (2017) Climate and climatic variability of rainfall over eastern Africa. Rev Geophys 55(3):590–635. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000544

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Nobre P, Shukla J (1996) Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress, and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America. J Clim 9:2464–2479. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2464:VOSSTW>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Ogou FK, Batebana K, Ogwang BA, Sein ZMM, Ongoma V, Ngarukiyimana JP (2016) Investigation of the influence of Atlantic Ocean on rainfall variability over Benin republic, West Africa. Ethiopia journal of environment studies & management. VL - 9, DO -. https://doi.org/10.4314/ejesm.v9i1.7

  20. Ogwang BA, Ongoma V, Gitau W (2015) Contributions of Atlantic ocean to June–August rainfall over Uganda and western Kenya. Journal of the Earth and Space and Physics. Vol. 41,(No. 4, 2016): PP. 131–140

  21. Riaz SM, Iqbal MJ (2017) Singular value decomposition analysis for examining the impact of Siberian high on winter precipitation variability over South Asia. Theor Appl Climatol 130:1189–1194. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1948-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Riaz SM, Iqbal MJ, Baig MJ (2017) Infleunce of Siberian high on temperature variability over northern areas of South Asia. Meteorog Atmos Phys 130:441–457. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0531-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian ocean. Nature 401(6751):360–363. https://doi.org/10.1038/43854

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Syed F, Giorgi F, Pal J, King M (2006) Effect of remote forcings on the winter precipitation of central Southwest Asia part 1: observations. Theor Appl Climatol 86:147–160. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0217-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Slingo JM, Annamalai H (2000) 1997 the El Nino of the century and the response of the Indian summer monsoon. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1778:TENOOT>2.0.CO;2

  26. URT (2014) State of the Environment Report – 2014 | Environmental Resource Management. pp. 1–156. Available at: http://www.tzdpg.or.tz/fileadmin/_migrated/content_uploads/State_of_Environment_Report_final_PDF_2006.pdf

  27. URT (2017) Bank of Tanzania. Annual Report, (0067–3757), pp. 213–234. ISSN 0067–3757

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA), NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis data, ERSST for providing the datasets used in this study. The author also thanks World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Chinese Scholarship Council (CSC) for the financial support to undertake MSc in Meteorology at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), P. R, China and including NUIST for providing the required facilities for data analysis and all other form of supports.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Paul Tilwebwa Shelleph Limbu.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Zhihua Zhang

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Kavishe, G.M., Limbu, P.T.S. Variation of October to December rainfall in Tanzania and its association with sea surface temperature. Arab J Geosci 13, 534 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05535-z

Download citation

Keywords

  • Tanzania
  • OND rainfall
  • Sea surface temperature
  • El Niño southern oscillation
  • Indian Ocean dipole