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Examining the Determinants of Extra-Judicial Killings in the Philippines at the Subnational Level: the Role of Penal Populism and Vertical Accountability

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Abstract

Since the election of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in 2016, extra-judicial killings (EJKs, hereafter) have become commonplace as a result of his administration’s declaration of war on drugs. Empirical cross-national work on examining determinants behind state repression remains scant especially in understanding the phenomenon at the sub-national level. This study investigates what accounts for variations on EJKs at the level of Philippine provinces. Using monthly panel-data for 62 provinces and employing various count-model regressions, the findings indicate that Philippine provinces which have large populations, stronger state capacity, and are more affluent in terms of the human development index are more likely to exhibit higher rates of EJKs. Furthermore, the vote share of the President in the 2016 elections and presidential visits to specific provinces are correlated with higher incidences of EJKs—corroborating theories on delegative democracies and penal populism. Lastly, it is found that drug-prone provinces are more likely to experience a higher share of human rights violations in terms of EJKs, compared to provinces that have lower affectation rates. The implications suggest that the Philippine war on drugs seem to promote vertical accountability as international criticism and domestic opposition mounts.

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Notes

  1. See: https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/philippines-duterte-data/

  2. See UNDOC report at: http://www.unodc.org/wdr2016/

  3. See https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/philippines-duterta-doa/

  4. See: Pulse Asia report: http://www.pulseasia.ph/september-2017-nationwide-survey-on-the-campaign-against-illegal-drugs/

  5. See: https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/the-human-rights-consequences-of-the-war-on-drugs-in-the-philippines/

  6. See: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/14/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-icc.html

  7. See http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/specialreports/568715/how-the-provinces-voted-for-president-vp/story/

  8. See: http://www.atimes.com/article/filipinos-support-dutertes-drug-war/

  9. See: ABS-CBN Investigative and Research Group. 2018. “The Death Toll of the War on Drugs,” Accessed at: http://news.abs-cbn.com/specials/map-charts-the-death-toll-of-the-war-on-drugs (from 2016 to 2018)

  10. See: Brooking Institute. 2017. The Human Rights Consequences of the War on Drugs in the Philippines. Accessed at: https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/the-human-rights-consequences-of-the-war-on-drugs-in-the-philippines/

  11. See. Human Rights Watch. 2018. Philippines: Duterte’s Drug War Claims 12,000 + Lives. Accessed at: https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/01/18/philippines-dutertes-drug-war-claims-12000-lives

  12. See: Rappler Philippines. 2018 “Trillanes calls on Senate to defend De Lima, Press Freedom, and Right to Life,” Accessed at: https://www.rappler.com/nation/196573-trillanes-privilege-speech-de-lima-press-freedom-extrajudicial-killings

  13. Philippine Commission on Elections. 2016. Election Results by Province. Available at: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/

  14. Available here: http://www.inquirer.net/?utm_expid=.T5pTR2J2TnmvL4jEnd74LQ.0&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F

  15. Available here: https://www.philstar.com/

  16. Available here: https://mb.com.ph/

  17. Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency. 2018. “Drug Affectation Per Province (% of Barangays (local government units) in a province identified as having citizens engaged in high methamphetamine use, also locally known as Shabu), accessed at: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1_jlXbZ84pI4Z7_U14WqeEA504vw&ll=14.0549210684909%2C119.6061621387745&z=6

  18. See report here: http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/23/18/drug-war-death-toll-nears-4000-says-pnp

  19. See: http://theconversation.com/dutertes-war-on-drugs-bitter-lessons-from-thailands-failed-campaign-66096; and https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/05/04/what-colombia-can-learn-from-thailand-on-drug-policy/

  20. See: https://www.npr.org/2017/11/13/563841402/philippines-rodrigo-duterte-sustains-support-for-deadly-war-on-drugs

  21. See: https://www.rappler.com/nation/194658-human-rights-officers-advocates-require-oplan-tokhang-pnp-war-on-drugs

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Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank Ryan Craig for research assistance and Michelle Allendoerfer, Nicole Curato, Veena Kulkarni, and participants in the panel on human rights and state repression at the MPSA annual conference held in 2018 for providing feedback, comments, and suggestions on an earlier draft.

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  1. Department of Political Science, Arkansas State University, Humanities and Social Sciences Building #3048, PO Box 1750, State University, AR, 72467, USA

    Rollin F. Tusalem

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Tusalem, R.F. Examining the Determinants of Extra-Judicial Killings in the Philippines at the Subnational Level: the Role of Penal Populism and Vertical Accountability. Hum Rights Rev 20, 67–101 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12142-018-0535-1

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