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Locating Event-Based Causal Effects: A Configural Perspective

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Abstract

Statistical models for the analysis of hypotheses that are compatible with direction dependence were originally specified based on the linear model. In these models, relations among variables reflected directional or causal hypotheses. In a number of causal theories, however, effects are defined as resulting from causes that did versus did not occur. To accommodate this type of theory, the present article proposes analyzing directional or causal hypotheses at the level of configurations. Causes thus have the effect that, in a particular sector of the data space, the density of cases increases or decreases. With reference to log-linear models of direction dependence, this article specifies base models for the configural analysis of directional or causal hypotheses. In contrast to standard configural analysis, the models are applied in a confirmatory context. Specific direction dependence hypotheses are analyzed. In a simulation study, it is shown that the proposed methods have good power to identify the sectors in the data space in which density exceeds or falls below expectation. In a data example, it is shown that the evolutionary hypothesis that body size determines brain size is confirmed in particular for higher vertebrates.

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Notes

  1. When the random mechanism that generates data can be described by a Poisson distribution, the corresponding sampling procedure is called Poisson sampling. This procedure is often used when modeling events that occur randomly over a fixed period of time. The number of events is not fixed a priori. In multinomial sampling, data are collected on a pre-determined number of cases. Each case can be assigned to any cell of a table. In product-multinomial sampling, marginal frequencies are fixed a priori, e.g., when 500 smokers are compared with 500 non-smokers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Michigan State University, 190 Allee du Nouveau Monde, 34000, Montpellier, France

    Alexander von Eye

  2. Department of Educational, School, and Counseling Psychology; Unit of Statistics, Measurement, and Evaluation in Education, College of Education, University of Missouri, 13B Hill Hall, 65201, Columbia, MO, USA

    Wolfgang Wiedermann

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  1. Alexander von Eye
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Correspondence to Alexander von Eye.

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von Eye, A., Wiedermann, W. Locating Event-Based Causal Effects: A Configural Perspective. Integr. psych. behav. 52, 307–330 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12124-018-9423-0

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