Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Predicting the cancer burden in Catalonia between 2015 and 2025: the challenge of cancer management in the elderly

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Clinical and Translational Oncology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Background

Developing effective cancer control programmes requires information on the future cancer burden in an ageing population. In our study we predicted the burden of cancer in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025.

Methods

Bayesian age–period–cohort models were used to predict the burden of cancer from 2015 to 2025 using incidence data from the Girona and Tarragona cancer registries and cancer mortality data from the Catalan mortality registry. Using the Bashir–Estève method, we divided the net change in the number of cases between 2015 and 2025 into changes due to population size (S), cancer risk (R) and age (A) distribution.

Results

By 2025, there will be 21,743 new cancer cases in men (40% aged > 74 years) and 17,268 in women (37% aged > 74 years). More than 40% of the new cases will be diagnosed among population aged 74 and older in prostate, colorectal, lung, bladder, pancreatic and stomach cancers in men, and in colorectal, pancreatic and bladder cancers and leukaemia in women. During 2015–2025, the number of new diagnoses will increase by 5.5% in men (A + R + S = 18.1% − 13.3% + 0.7% = 5.5%) and 11.9% in women (A + R + S = 12.4% − 1.1% + 0.6% = 11.9%). Overall cancer mortality rates will continue to decrease during 2015–2025. Lung cancer will be the most lethal cancer among men (N = 2705) and women (N = 1174).

Conclusions

The increase in the number of cancer cases in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025 will mostly affect the elderly, prompting the need for increased collaboration between geriatricians and oncologists.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Bray F, Møller B. Predicting the future burden of cancer. Nat Rev Cancer. 2006;6:63–74. doi:10.1038/nrc1781.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  2. Ahmad AS, Ormiston-Smith N, Sasieni PD. Trends in the lifetime risk of developing cancer in Great Britain: comparison of risk for those born from 1930 to 1960. Br J Cancer. 1930;2015:1–5. doi:10.1038/bjc.2014.606.

    Google Scholar 

  3. Clèries R, Esteban L, Borràs J, Marcos-Gragera R, Freitas A, Carulla M, et al. Time trends of cancer incidence and mortality in Catalonia during 1993–2007. Clin Transl Oncol. 2014;16:18–28. doi:10.1007/s12094-013-1060-y.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  4. Ribes J, Esteban L, Clèries R, Galceran J, Marcos-Gragera R, Gispert R, et al. Cancer incidence and mortality projections up to 2020 in Catalonia by means of Bayesian models. Clin Transl Oncol. 2014;16:714–24. doi:10.1007/s12094-013-1140-z.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. Pallis AG, Fortpied C, Wedding U, Van Nes MC, Penninckx B, Ring A, et al. EORTC elderly task force position paper: approach to the older cancer patient. Eur J Cancer. 2010;46:1502–13. doi:10.1016/j.ejca.2010.02.022.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  6. Clèries R, Buxó M, Martínez JM, Espinàs JA, Dyba T, Borràs JM. Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022. Cancer Epidemiol. 2016;40:113–8. doi:10.1016/j.canep.2015.12.002.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  7. Marosi C, Köller M. Challenge of cancer in the elderly. ESMO Open. 2016;. doi:10.1136/esmoopen-2015-000020.

    PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  8. Antonio M, Saldaña J, Carmona-Bayonas A, Navarro V, Tebé C, Nadal M, Formiga F, Salazar R, Borràs JM. Geriatric assessment predicts survival and competing mortality in elderly patients with early colorectal cancer: can it help in adjuvant therapy decision-making? Oncologist. 2017;22(8):934–43. doi:10.1634/theoncologist.2016-0462.

  9. Clèries R, Martínez JM, Moreno V, Yasui Y, Ribes J, Borràs JM. Predicting the change in breast cancer deaths in Spain by 2019: a Bayesian approach. Epidemiology. 2013;24:454–60. doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e31828b0866.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  10. Clèries R, Ribes J, Buxo M, Ameijide A, Marcos-Gragera R, Galceran J, et al. Bayesian approach to predicting cancer incidence for an area without cancer registration by using cancer incidence data from nearby areas. Stat Med. 2012;31:978–87. doi:10.1002/sim.4463.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  11. Valls J, Clèries R, Gálvez J, Moreno V, Gispert R, Borràs JM, et al. RiskDiff: a web tool for the analysis of the difference due to risk and demographic factors for incidence or mortality data. BMC Public Health. 2009;9:473. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-9-473.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  12. McCormack VA, Boffetta P. Today’s lifestyles, tomorrow’s cancers: trends in lifestyle risk factors for cancer in low- and middle-income countries. Ann Oncol. 2011;22:2349–57. doi:10.1093/annonc/mdq763.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  13. Bilal U, Fernández E, Beltran P, Navas-acien A, Bolumar F, Franco M. Validation of a method for reconstructing historical rates of smoking prevalence. Am J Epidemiol. 2014;179:15–9. doi:10.1093/aje/kwt224.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  14. Malvezzi M, Bertuccio P, Rosso T, Rota M, Levi F, La Vecchia C, et al. European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015: does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women? Ann Oncol. 2015;2015:1–8. doi:10.1093/annonc/mdv001.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Galceran J, Ameijide A, Carulla M, Mateos A, Quirós JR, Rojas D, et al. Cancer incidence in Spain, 2015. Clin Transl Oncol. 2017;. doi:10.1007/s12094-016-1607-9.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Center MM, Jemal A, Lortet-Tieulent J, Ward E, Ferlay J, Brawley O, et al. International variation in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates. Eur Urol. 2012;61:1079–92. doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2012.02.054.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  17. Binefa G, Rodríguez-Moranta F, Teule A, Medina-Hayas M. Colorectal cancer: from prevention to personalized medicine. World J Gastroenterol. 2014;20:6786–808. doi:10.3748/wjg.v20.i22.6786.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  18. Rossi PG, Vicentini M, Sacchettini C, Di Felice E, Caroli S, Ferrari F, et al. Impact of screening program on incidence of colorectal cancer: a cohort study in Italy. Am J Gastroenterol. 2015;110:1359–66. doi:10.1038/ajg.2015.240.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Pollán M, Pastor-Barriuso R, Ardanaz E, Argüelles M, Martos C, Galcerán J, et al. Recent changes in breast cancer incidence in Spain, 1980–2004. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2009;101:1584–91. doi:10.1093/jnci/djp358.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  20. Ferlay J, Steliarova-Foucher E, Lortet-Tieulent J, Rosso S, Coebergh JWW, Comber H, et al. Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in Europe: estimates for 40 countries in 2012. Eur J Cancer. 2013;49:1374–403. doi:10.1016/j.ejca.2012.12.027.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  21. Bilal U, Beltran P, Fernández E, Navas-Ancien A, Bolumar F, Franco M. Gender equality and smoking: a theory-driven approach to smoking gender differences in Spain. Tob Control. 2016;25:295–300. doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  22. López-Campos JL, Ruiz-Ramos M, Fernandez E, Soriano JB. Recent lung cancer mortality trends in Europe. Eur J Cancer Prev. 2017;. doi:10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000354 In Press.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  23. Hashibe M, Brennan P, Chuang S-C, Boccia S, Castellsague X, Chen C, et al. Interaction between tobacco and alcohol use and the risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium. Cancer Epidemiol Biomark Prev. 2009;18:541–50. doi:10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-08-0347.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. Syrjänen S. The role of human papillomavirus infection in head and neck cancers. Ann Oncol. 2010;21:243–5. doi:10.1093/annonc/mdq454.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Torrente MC, Rodrigo JP, Haigentz MJ, Dikkers FG, Rinaldo A, Takes RP, et al. Human papillomavirus infections in laryngeal cancer. Head Neck. 2011;33:581–6. doi:10.1002/hed.21421.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  26. Murta-nascimento C, Schmitz-Dräger BJ, Zeegers J, Schmitz-dräger MP, Steineck G, Kogevinas M, et al. Epidemiology of urinary bladder cancer: from tumor development to patient’ s death. World J Urol. 2007;25:285–95. doi:10.1007/s00345-007-0168-5.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  27. Bosetti C, Lucenteforte E, Silverman DT, Petersen G, Bracci PM, Ji BT, et al. Cigarette smoking and pancreatic cancer: an analysis from the International Pancreatic Cancer Case–Control Consortium (Panc4). Ann Oncol. 2012;23:1880–8. doi:10.1093/annonc/mdr541.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  28. Marcos-Gragera R, Pollán M, Chirlaque MD, Gumà J, Sanchez MJ, Garau I, et al. Attenuation of the epidemic increase in non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas in Spain. Ann Oncol 2010; 21. doi:10.1093/annonc/mdq088.

  29. Hollingsworth JM, Miller DC, Daignault S, Hollenbeck BK. Rising incidence of small renal masses: a need to reassess treatment effect. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2006;98:1331–4. doi:10.1093/jnci/djj362.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  30. La Vecchia C, Malvezzi M, Bosetti C, Garavello W, Bertuccio P, Levi F, et al. Thyroid cancer mortality and incidence: a global overview. Int J Cancer. 2015;136:2187–95. doi:10.1002/ijc.29251.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Agència d’Avaluació d’Universitats i Recerca (2014SGR0635), and partially supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III through the Project PI14/01041, co-funded by European Regional Development fund/European Social fund: “investing in your future”.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pla Director d’Oncologia (GENCAT), IDIBELL, Hospital Duran i Reynals, Gran Via 199-203 1ª planta, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908, Barcelona, Spain

    R. Clèries, L. Pareja, L. Esteban, J.-A. Espinàs, J. Ribes & J. M. Borrás

  2. Departament de Ciències Clíniques, Universitat de Barcelona, Campus de Bellvitge, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain

    R. Clèries, J. Ribes & J. M. Borrás

  3. Registre de Càncer de Tarragona, Fundació Lliga per a la Investigació i Prevenció del Càncer (FUNCA)-IISPV, Reus, Tarragona, Spain

    A. Ameijide, M. Carulla & J. Galceran

  4. Unitat d’Epidemiologia i Registre del Càncer de Girona (UERGG), Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica Girona Josep Trueta (IDIBGI), Girona, Spain

    R. Marcos-Gragera, M.-L. Vilardell & A. Izquierdo

  5. Institut Català d’Oncologia (ICO), Girona, Spain

    R. Marcos-Gragera, M.-L. Vilardell & A. Izquierdo

  6. Departament d’Infermeria, Universitat de Girona (UdG), Girona, Spain

    R. Marcos-Gragera

  7. Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica de Girona, IDIBGI, C/Dr.Castany s/n, Edifici M2, Parc Hospitalari Martí i Julià, 17190, Salt, Spain

    M. Buxó

  8. Registre de Mortalitat, Direcció General de Planificació en Salut, Departament de Salut, Generalitat de Catalunya, Travessera de les Corts, 131-159, 08028, Barcelona, Spain

    A. Puigdefàbregas

  9. Departament d’Oncología Médica, Institut Català d’Oncologia, Hospital Universitari Doctor Josep Trueta, Girona, Spain

    A. Izquierdo

  10. Departament de Medicina i Cirurgia, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Reus, Tarragona, Spain

    J. Galceran

Authors
  1. R. Clèries
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. A. Ameijide
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. R. Marcos-Gragera
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. L. Pareja
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. M. Carulla
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. M.-L. Vilardell
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. L. Esteban
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. M. Buxó
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. J.-A. Espinàs
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. A. Puigdefàbregas
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. J. Ribes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. A. Izquierdo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  13. J. Galceran
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  14. J. M. Borrás
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to R. Clèries.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The funders had no role in the design of the study, the collection, analysis, or interpretation of the data, the writing of the manuscript, or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. The authors state that there are no conflicts of interest concerning this study.

Research involving human participants and/or animals

This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 1675 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Clèries, R., Ameijide, A., Marcos-Gragera, R. et al. Predicting the cancer burden in Catalonia between 2015 and 2025: the challenge of cancer management in the elderly. Clin Transl Oncol 20, 647–657 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12094-017-1764-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12094-017-1764-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation