Predicting the cancer burden in Catalonia between 2015 and 2025: the challenge of cancer management in the elderly
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Developing effective cancer control programmes requires information on the future cancer burden in an ageing population. In our study we predicted the burden of cancer in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025.
Bayesian age–period–cohort models were used to predict the burden of cancer from 2015 to 2025 using incidence data from the Girona and Tarragona cancer registries and cancer mortality data from the Catalan mortality registry. Using the Bashir–Estève method, we divided the net change in the number of cases between 2015 and 2025 into changes due to population size (S), cancer risk (R) and age (A) distribution.
By 2025, there will be 21,743 new cancer cases in men (40% aged > 74 years) and 17,268 in women (37% aged > 74 years). More than 40% of the new cases will be diagnosed among population aged 74 and older in prostate, colorectal, lung, bladder, pancreatic and stomach cancers in men, and in colorectal, pancreatic and bladder cancers and leukaemia in women. During 2015–2025, the number of new diagnoses will increase by 5.5% in men (A + R + S = 18.1% − 13.3% + 0.7% = 5.5%) and 11.9% in women (A + R + S = 12.4% − 1.1% + 0.6% = 11.9%). Overall cancer mortality rates will continue to decrease during 2015–2025. Lung cancer will be the most lethal cancer among men (N = 2705) and women (N = 1174).
The increase in the number of cancer cases in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025 will mostly affect the elderly, prompting the need for increased collaboration between geriatricians and oncologists.
KeywordsCancer Incidence Mortality Projections Ageing Burden
This work was supported by the Agència d’Avaluació d’Universitats i Recerca (2014SGR0635), and partially supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III through the Project PI14/01041, co-funded by European Regional Development fund/European Social fund: “investing in your future”.
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The funders had no role in the design of the study, the collection, analysis, or interpretation of the data, the writing of the manuscript, or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. The authors state that there are no conflicts of interest concerning this study.
Research involving human participants and/or animals
This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.
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