Abstract
There are approximately one million existing electrically heated homes in the Northwest. The Northwest region of the USA as defined for this project includes the states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana. Within this area, there are a range of climate zones. The region also includes a wide range of electric markets, from rural to large urban areas. Ductless heat pumps (DHPs) have the potential to save several hundred average megawatts in this market and reduce the carbon intensity of target homes by more than 30 %. To leverage this large potential resource for the region, the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) used a holistic approach to design, implement, and evaluate the Northwest DHP Pilot Project. NEEA worked with contractors, manufacturers, distributors, and utilities to generate demand for DHPs, build a thriving and sustainable network to meet that demand, and ultimately transform the DHP market. NEEA designed the DHP Pilot Project evaluation to conduct an integrated assessment of DHP technical performance and market acceptance. The evaluation included five “tiers” of DHP research: (1) market acceptance, including interviews with manufacturers, distributors, utilities, program implementation staff, and nearly 300 participants; (2) lab testing of two DHPs; (3) field monitoring of 95 participating homes; (4) billing analysis of the pilot population (3899 sites); and (5) cost-effectiveness analysis of the DHP measure. By taking a “360 degree” perspective, the evaluators were able to make granular distinctions between performance-based and behavior-based determinants of energy savings. This paper discusses the tools used to influence DHP market perception and to overcome skeptics of this technology. The paper also assesses the evaluation approach, including the pros and cons of assessing a technology and program design from multiple angles in order to identify reliable savings and the potential for future programs. The paper summarizes extensive primary research and case studies. As such, the paper focuses solely on the direct experience and findings from the research.
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Notes
For more details on the Northwest electricity planning context and accomplishments, visit the Northwest Power and Conservation Council Website at www.nwcouncil.org
This high-level savings estimate assumes an average per household DHP savings of 3500 to 4000 kWh applied to one million applicable households in the Northwest. An average megawatt is the amount of electricity produced by the continuous production of 1 MW over a period of 1 year. The term, sometimes also called average annual megawatt, defines power production in megawatt increments over time. Because there are 8760 h in a year, an average megawatt is equal to 8760 MWh.
For more information on NEEA, visit www.neea.org.
For more information, visit www.ecotope.com.
For more information on DHPs, visit https://goingductless.com/
The Regional Technical Forum (RTF) is a chartered scientific committee of the Northwest Power and Conservation Council. The RTF is charged with establishing criteria for and review of standardized energy savings measures and practices. For more information, see www.nwcouncil.org/RTF
Note that there was substantial standard deviation in these results due to small sample sizes and diverse climate zones. These results of these detailed measurements were used in combination with lab testing, billing analysis, and energy simulations to establish the overall performance of this equipment.
For more information on the RTF guidelines, see the Roadmap for the Assessment of Energy Efficiency Measures, at http://rtf.nwcouncil.org//subcommittees/guidelines/RTF_Guidelines_2013-04-16.pdf.
Unit Energy Savings (UES) is the RTF measure classification for measures “whose unitized savings, e.g., savings per lamp or motor, is stable (both the mean and variance), and can be reliably forecast through the period defined by the measure’s sunset date.”(http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/subcommittees/Guidelines/RTF_Guidelines_2013-04-16.pdf)
For more information on the DHP UES, see the full RTF DHP measure workbook at http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2013/11/DHP_UES_2013-11-13%20PROPOSED.XLSM
SEEM consists of an hourly thermal, moisture, and air mass balance simulation that interacts with duct specifications, equipment, and weather parameters to calculate the annual energy requirements of the building. It employs algorithms consistent with current American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE), Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), and International Organization for Standardization (ISO) calculation standards. SEEM is used extensively in the Northwest to estimate conservation measure savings for regional energy utility policy planners.
For more information on the DHP UES, see the full RTF DHP measure workbook at http://rtf.nwcouncil.org//measures/res/ResHeatingCoolingDuctlessHeatPumpsSF_v2_0.xlsm
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Storm, P. Northwest ductless heat pump Pilot Project—a holistic approach to market transformation and evaluation. Energy Efficiency 9, 887–898 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-016-9442-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-016-9442-y