A tropical cyclone (TC) Vayu developed over the Arabian Sea during June, 2019. It followed a northward track from southeast Arabian Sea to northeast Arabian Sea close to Gujarat coast during 10–12 June 2019 as a very severe cyclonic storm. It skirted south Gujarat coast by recurving west-northwestwards during 13th–14th June and again made a northeastward recurvature on 16th June towards Gujarat coast. However, it weakened over Sea on 17th. There was large divergence among various models in predicting the track of TC Vayu leading to over warning for Gujarat state and also delay in dewarning leading to evacuation of people from coastal region. Hence, a study has thus been taken up to analyze the performance of various numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in forecasting the track of TC Vayu so as to find out the reason for above limitation of NWP models. Results suggest that there is a need to relook into the existing multi-model ensemble (MME) technique which outperforms individual models in track forecasting. There is also a need to improve the individual deterministic model guidance so as to suitably represent the interaction between mid-latitude westerlies with the TC and steering anticyclone by improving the initial and boundary conditions through augmented direct and remotely sensed observations over the Arabian Sea and their assimilation in NWP models.
The multiple interactions among the wind fields of TC Vayu, middle latitude westerlies and anticyclones over central India & Arabian Peninsula led to the unique track of Vayu with two recurvatures in its life cycle.
The prediction of time and point of recurvature in the track of TCs is still a challenge for the NWP models and hence the operational forecast, as models could not represent the interaction of mid-latitude westerlies with the TC and steering anticyclone over either side of the TC.
Comparing the average track forecast errors of different models and multi-model ensemble (MME) for the recurving TCs during 2009–2019, the MME shows minimum average track forecast error. However, the consistency in MME based track forecast decreases with increase in lead period.
There is a need to look into the existing MME and improve it by re-defining the best constituent members and improving the performance of individual models through augmentation of direct & remotely sensed observations, data assimilation and the physical processes in the model.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
We’re sorry, something doesn't seem to be working properly.
Please try refreshing the page. If that doesn't work, please contact support so we can address the problem.
Gray W M 1968 Global view of origin of tropical disturbance and storms; Mon. Wea Rev. 96 669–700.
Heming J, Prates F, Bender M, Cangialosi J, Caroff P, Doyle J, Dube A, Faure G, Howell B, Igarashi Y, McTaggart-Cowan R, Mohapatra M, Moskaitis J, Murtha J, Rivett R, Sharma M, Short C, Singh A, Tallapragada V, Titley H and Xiao Yi 2019 Review of recent progress in tropical cyclone track forecasting and expression of uncertainties; Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev. 8(4) 181–218.
IMD 2003 Cyclone Manual, IMD, Lodi Road, New Delhi, India.
IMD 2013 Cyclone Warning in India: Standard Operation Procedure, IMD, New Delhi, India.
Kotal S D and Roy Bhowmik S K 2011 A multimodel ensemble technique for cyclone track prediction over north Indian Sea; Geofizika 28 275–291.
Linda A P, Barry N H, Noel D and Harry W C 2005 Influence of environmental vertical wind shear on the intensity of hurricane strength tropical cyclones in the Australian region; Mon. Wea. Rev. 133 3644–3660.
Mohanty U C, Osuri Krishna K, Routray A, Mohapatra M and Pattanayak Sujata 2010 Simulation of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones with WRF Model: Impact of initial and boundary conditions; Mar. Geodesy 33(4) 294–314, https://doi.org/10.1080/01490419.2010.518061.
Mohapatra M 2012 Evaluation of cone of uncertainty in tropical cyclone track forecast over North Indian Ocean issued by India Meteorological Department; Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev. 1 331–339.
Mohapatra M 2015 Cyclone hazard proneness of districts of India; J. Earth Syst. Sci. 124 515–526, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0556-y.
Mohapatra M, Mandal G S, Bandyopadhyay B K, Tyagi Ajit and Mohanty U C 2012a Classification of cyclone hazard prone districts of India; Nat. Hazards, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9891-8.
Mohapatra M, Bandyopadhyay B K and Tyagi Ajit 2012b Best track parameters of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: A review; Nat. Hazards 63(3) 1285–1317, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9935-0.
Mohapatra M, Nayak D P, Sharma R P and Bandyopadhyay B K 2013 Evaluation of official tropical cyclone track forecast over north Indian Ocean issued by India Meteorological Department; J. Earth Syst. Sci. 122(3) 589–601, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-013-0291-1.
Mohapatra M, Nayak D P, Sharma Monica, Sharma R P and Bandyopadhyay B K 2015 Evaluation of official tropical cyclone landfall forecast issued by India Meteorological Department; J. Earth Syst. Sci. 124 861–874, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0581-x.
Mohapatra M and Sharma M 2019 Cyclone Warning Services in India during recent years: A review; Mausam 70(4) 635–666.
Osuri Krishna K, Mohanty U C, Routray A and Mohapatra M 2012a The impact of satellite-derived wind data assimilation on track, intensity and structure of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean; Int. J. Remote Sens. 33(5–5) 1627–1652, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2011.596849.
Osuri Krishna K, Mohanty U C, Routray A, Kulkarni Makarand A and Mohapatra M 2012b Customization of WRF-ARW model with physical parameterization schemes for the simulation of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean; Nat. Hazards 63(3) 1337–1359, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9862-0.
Osuri Krishna K, Mohanty U C, Routray Ashish and Mohapatra M 2013 Real time track prediction of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean using the ARW Model; J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 52(11) 2476–2492.
RSMC, New Delhi 2019a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, Vayu over the Arabian Sea during June, 2019: A report; Cyclone Warning Division, IMD, New Delhi, 2019.
RSMC, New Delhi 2019b Report on cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean during 2018; Cyclone warning Division, IMD, New Delhi, India.
Sabade B and Mohapatra M 2017 Very severe cyclonic storm MADI over Bay of Bengal, 6–13 December 2013: A diagnostic study; In: Tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean (eds) Mohapatra M and Bandyopadhyay B K and Rathore L S, Capital Publishers New Delhi and Springer, Germany, pp. 117–130.
Sharma M and Mohapatra M 2017 Standard operation procedure for tropical cyclone vital parameters over North Indian Ocean, In: Tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean (eds) Mohapatra M and Bandyopadhyay B K and Rathore L S, Capital Publishers, New Delhi and Springer, Germany, pp. 367–381.
The authors are thankful to Cyclone Warning Division and NWP Division of IMD for providing the required data to carry out this study.
Communicated by Kavirajan Rajendran
About this article
Cite this article
Mishra, K., Sharma, M. & Mohapatra, M. Performance of numerical weather prediction models in predicting track of recurving cyclone Vayu over Arabian Sea during June 2019. J Earth Syst Sci 130, 25 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-01533-7
- Tropical cyclone
- NWP model