Typhoon parameter sensitivity of storm surge in the semi-enclosed Tokyo Bay


In this study, a storm surge model of the semi-enclosed Tokyo Bay was constructed to investigate its hydrodynamic response to major typhoon parameters, such as the point of landfall, approach angle, forward speed, size, and intensity. The typhoon simulation was validated for Typhoon Lan in 2017, and 31 hypothetical storm surge scenarios were generated to establish the sensitivity of peak surge height to the variation in typhoon parameters. The maximum storm surge height in the upper bay adjacent to the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was found to be highly sensitive to the forward speed and size of the passing typhoon. However, the importance of these parameters in disaster risk reduction has been largely overlooked by researchers and disaster managers. It was also determined that of the many hypothetical typhoon tracks evaluated, the slow passage of a large and intense typhoon transiting parallel to the longitudinal axis of Tokyo Bay, making landfall 25 km southwest, is most likely to cause a hazardous storm surge scenario in the upper-bay area. The results of this study are expected to be useful to disaster managers for advanced preparation against destructive storm surges.

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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Md. Rezuanul Islam.

Additional information


The first author is thankful to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT) of Japan for the provided scholarship to conduct research in the field of disaster risk reduction. This research was funded through the grants for Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, 16KK0121, 19K04964, and 19K24677). Best track data for 1961–2019 (www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/trackarchives.html), observed tide (www.data.jma.go.jp/kaiyou/db/tide/genbo/index.php), typhoon statistics (www.data.jma.go.jp/fcd/yoho/typhoon/statistics/index.html) and past weather (www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/index.php) data were provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

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Islam, M.R., Takagi, H. Typhoon parameter sensitivity of storm surge in the semi-enclosed Tokyo Bay. Front. Earth Sci. (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-020-0817-1

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  • storm surge
  • risk
  • semi-enclosed bay
  • typhoon parameters
  • parametric study
  • Typhoon Lan