Journal of Mountain Science

, Volume 15, Issue 2, pp 237–253 | Cite as

Long-term variability of air temperature and precipitation conditions in the Polish Carpathians

  • Agnieszka Wypych
  • Zbigniew Ustrnul
  • Dirk R. Schmatz
Article

Abstract

Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years. Climate change is most evident in the foothills; however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians, which reach approximately 350 meters, on average, what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.

Keywords

Climate change Air temperature Precipitation Polish Carpathians 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Notes

Acknowledgments

Research carried out within the FORECOM project (Forest cover changes in mountainous regions–drivers, trajectories and implications, PSRP 008/2010), supported by a grant from Switzerland through the Swiss contribution to the enlarged European Union.

References

  1. Anandhi A, Frei A, Pierson DC, et al. (2011) Examination of change factor methodologies for climate change impact assessment. Water Resources Research 47: W03501. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009104Google Scholar
  2. Antofie T, Naumann G, Spinoni J, et al. (2015) Estimating the water needed to end the drought or reduce the drought severity in the Carpathian region. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19: 177–193. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess19-177-2015CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Auer I, Böhm R, Jurkovič A, et al. (2007) HISTALP–Historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the Greater Alpine Region. International Journal of Climatology 27: 17–46. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1377CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Barry RG (1992) Mountain climatology and past and potential future climatic changes in mountain regions: a review. Mountain Research and Development 12: 71–86. https://doi.org/10.2307/3673749CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Barry RG (2008) Mountain Weather and Climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. pp 1–532.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Beniston M (2003) Climatic change in mountain regions: a review of possible impacts. Climatic Change 59: 5–31. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024458411589CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Beniston M (2005) Mountain Climates and Climatic Change: An Overview of Processes Focusing on the European Alps. Pure and Applied Geophysics 162: 1587–1606. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-005-2684-9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Björnsen-Gurung A, Bokwa A, Chełmicki W, et al. (2009) Global Change research in the Carpathian Mountain Region. Mountain Research and Development 29(3): 282–288. https://doi.org/10.1659/mrd.1105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Bokwa A, Wypych A, Ustrnul Z (2013) Climate changes in the vertical zones of the Polish Carpathians in the last 50 years. In: Kozak J, et al. (eds.), The Carpathians: Integrating Nature and Society Towards Sustainability. Environmental Science and Engineering. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.pp89-109.Google Scholar
  10. Cheval S, Birsan MV, Dumitrescu A (2014) Climate variability in the Carpathian Mountains Region over 1961-2010. Global and Planetary Change 118: 85–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.04.005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Diaz HF, Grosjean M, Graumlich L (2003) Climate variability and change in high elevation regions: past, present and future. Climatic Change 59: 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1023/A: 1024416227887CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Gottfried M, Pauli H, Futschik A, et al. (2012) Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change. Nature Climate Change 2:111–115.https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1329CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Hartmann DL, Klein Tank AMG, Rusticucci M et al. (2013) Observations: Atmosphere and Surface. In: Stocker TF et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. pp 159–254. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.008Google Scholar
  14. Hess M (1965) Vertical Climatic zones in the Polish Western Carpathians. Geographical Studies 11: 1–258. (In Polish with English summary)Google Scholar
  15. Hlásny T, Trombik J, Dobor L, et al. (2016) Future climate of the Carpathians: climate change hot-spots and implications for ecosystems. Regional Environmental Change 16(5): 1495–1506. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0890-2CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Jurkovič A, Majstorović Ž, Böhm R, et al. (2011) The Mountain Observatory Bjelašnica-History, analysis, homogenization and interpretation of a more than 100 years long temperature data set. Meteorologische Zeitshrift 20: 291–303. https://doi. org/10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0205CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Kelly AE, Goulden ML (2008) Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105: 11823–11826. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0802891105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Kohler T, Wehrli A, Jurek M (eds.) (2014) Mountains and climate change: A global concern. Sustainable Mountain Development Series, Bern, Switzerland, Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and Geographica Bernensia. pp 1–136.Google Scholar
  19. Lindner M, Maroschek M, Netherer S, et al. (2010) Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems. Forest Ecology and Management 259: 698–709. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.023CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Luterbacher J, Dietrich D, Xoplaki E, et al. (2004) European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends and extremes since 1500. Science 303: 1499–1503. https://doi. org/10.1126/science.1093877CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Łupikasza EB, Hänsel S, Matschullat J (2011) Regional and seasonal variability of extreme precipitation trends in southern Poland and central-eastern Germany 1951-2006. International Journal of Climatology 31: 2249–2271. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2229CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Milad M, Schaich H, Bürgi M, et al. (2011) Climate change and nature conservation in Central European forests: A review of consequences, concepts and challenges. Forest Ecology and Management 261: 829–843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco. 2010.10.038CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Obrębska-Starkel B (1990) Recent studies on Carpathian Meteorology and climatology. International Journal of Climatology 10: 79–88.https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370100109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Obrębska-Starkel B, Bednarz Z, Niedźwiedź T, et al. (1995) On the trends of the climate changes in the higher parts of the Carpathian Mountains. Geographical Studies 98: 7–22.Google Scholar
  25. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37–42. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01286CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Pauli H, Gottfried M, Grabherr G (1996) Effects of climate change on mountain ecosystems-upward shifting of alpine plants. World Resource Review 8(3): 382–390.Google Scholar
  27. Pauling A, Luterbacher J, Casty C, et al. (2006) Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation. Climate Dynamics 26: 387–405. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0090-8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Pepin N, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, et al. (2015) Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nature Climate Change 5: 424–430. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Ponocná T, Spyt B, Kaczka R, et al. (2016) Growth trends and climate responses of Norway spruce along elevational gradients in East-Central Europe. Trees. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-016-1396-3Google Scholar
  30. Price B, Kaim D, Szwagrzyk M, et al. (2017) Legacies, socioeconomic and biophysical processes and drivers: the case of future forest cover expansion in the Polish Carpathians and Swiss Alps. Regional Environmental Change 17: 2279–2291. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1079-zCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Rangwala I, Miller JR (2012) Climate change in mountains: a review of elevation-dependent warming and its possible causes. Climatic Change 114: 527–547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0419-3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Semadeni-Davies A, Hernebring C, Svensson G, et al. (2008) The impacts of climate change and urbanization on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: Combined sewer system. Journal of Hydrology 350(1–2): 100–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jhydrol.2007.11.006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Socha J, Durło G (2012) How will climate change impact biomass increment by Norway spruce stands in Western Beskids? Folia Forestalia Polonica, series A 54(2): 94–108.Google Scholar
  34. Spinoni J, Antofie T, Barbosa P, et al. (2013) An overview of drought events in the Carpathian Region in 1961-2010. Advances in Science and Research 10: 21–32. https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-21-2013CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Spinoni J, Szalai S, Szentimrey T, et al. (2015a) Climate of the Carpathian Region in the period 1961-2010: climatologies and trends of 10 variables. International Journal of Climatology 35: 1322–1341. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4059CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Spinoni J, Lakatos M, Szentimrey T, et al. (2015b) Heat and cold waves trends in the Carpathian Region from 1961 to 2010. International Journal of Climatology 35: 4197–4209. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4279CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. von Storch H, Zwiers RW (2003) Statistical Analysis Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. pp 1–484.Google Scholar
  38. Švajda J (2008) Climate change and timber line in the European mountains-current knowledge and perspectives. Oecologia Montana 17: 30–33.Google Scholar
  39. Szalai S, Auer I, Hiebl J, et al. (2013) Climate of the Greater Carpathian Region. http://www.carpatclim-eu.orgGoogle Scholar
  40. Szentimrey T, Bihari Z (2007) Manual of interpolation software MISHv1.02. Hungarian Meteorological Service. pp 1–32.Google Scholar
  41. Szentimrey T, Lakatos M, Bihari Z, et al. (2012) Final report on the creation of national gridded datasets, per country. Carpatclim Project Deliverable D2.9, http://www.carpatclimeu. org/docs/deliverables/D2_9.pdf.Google Scholar
  42. Theurillat JP, Guisan A (2001) Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review. Climatic Change 50:77–109. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010632015572CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araujo MB, et al. (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102: 8245–8250. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0409902102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Trepińska J (1971) The secular course of air temperature in Cracow on the basis of 140-year series of meteorological observations (1826-1965) made at the Astronomical Observatory of the Jagiellonian University. Acta Geophysica Polonica 3: 277–304 (extended and updated to 2000 by the author).Google Scholar
  45. Twardosz R (1997) Homogenization of the precipitation measurement series for Cracow meteorological station. In: Trepińska J (ed.), Fluctuations of climate in Cracow (1792-1995). Institute of Geography of Jagiellonian University. pp 89–95. (In Polish with English summary)Google Scholar
  46. Wibig J, Jaczewski A, Brzóska B, et al. (2014) How does the areal averaging infuence the extremes? The context of gridded observation data sets. Meteorol. Zeitschrift 23: 181–187. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2014/0470CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Wijngaard JB, Klein Tank AMG, Können GP (2003) Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology 23: 679–692. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.906CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Wypych A, Ustrnul Z, Sulikowska A, et al. (2017a) Spatial and temporal variability of the frost-free season in Central Europe and its circulation background. International Journal of Climatology 37: 3340–3352.https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4920CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Wypych A, Sulikowska A, Ustrnul Z, et al. (2017b) Variability of growing degree days in Poland in response to ongoing climate changes in Europe. International Journal of Biometeorology 61: 49–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1190-3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Xoplaki E, Luterbacher J, Paeth H, et al. (2005) European spring and autumn temperature, variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L15713. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023424CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Żmudzka E (2009) Changes of thermal conditions in the Polish Tatra Mountains. Landform Analysis 10: 140–146.Google Scholar
  52. Żmudzka E (2011) Contemporary climate changes in the high mountain part of the Tatras. Miscellanea Geographica 15: 93–102. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10288-012-0005-6Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Science Press, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of ClimatologyJagiellonian UniversityKrakówPoland
  2. 2.Landscape Dynamics UnitSwiss Federal Research Institute WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland

Personalised recommendations