Climate Change and Potato Productivity in Punjab—Impacts and Adaptation

Abstract

The study was carried out to assess the impact of climate change on potato productivity to develop adaptation strategies in Punjab, using crop growth simulation models for future climate scenarios (2030, 2050 and 2080) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 6.0. Three potato cultivars belonging to distinct maturity groups, late (Kufri Badshah), medium (Kufri Jyoti) and early (Kufri Pukhraj), were used. Simulation results showed that under RCP 4.5, increase in CO2 concentration is expected to bring an increase in productivity of Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti and Kufri Pukhraj by 6.7, 7.2 and 7.1% in 2030; 10.8, 11.6 and 11.4% in 2050; and 14.0, 15.0 and 14.8% in 2080. However, the corresponding increase in temperature is likely to decline the mean productivity by 2.6, 3.8 and 3.8% in 2030; 6.5, 8.7 and 9.3% in 2050; and 14.4, 17.6 and 18.4% in 2080, for Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti and Kufri Pukhraj. But, when combined influence of temperature and CO2 was considered, the productivity of potato will not be affected in 2030 and 2050 over the baseline scenario but is expected to decline in 2080 (Kufri Badshah − 1.9%, Kufri Jyoti − 4.1% and Kufri Pukhraj − 5.2%). Similarly, for RCP 6.0, increased CO2 concentration is expected to increase the mean productivity by 6.5% in 2030, 10.5% in 2050 and 19.4% in 2080. However, yield increase due to CO2 is negated by increased temperature with respective values of 2.2, 4.4 and 14.2%. However, under combined effect for RCP 6.0, productivity of potato cultivars is not likely to be affected over the baseline scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Results further revealed that by changing the dates of planting or selection of suitable cultivars, yield can increase in 2030 by 7.4% in Kufri Badshah and 7.8 and 1.5% in Kufri Pukhraj in 2050 and 2080, under RCP 4.5. Similarly, adaptation may increase mean yield up to 9.1% for Kufri Pukhraj in 2030, 9.8% for Kufri Badshah in 2050 and 8.2% for Kufri Badshah and Kufri Jyoti in 2080 under RCP 6.0. Further, with proper irrigation and nitrogen management practices, yield can be increased.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Fig. 1

References

  1. Anonymous (2018). Horticultural statistics at a glance. www.agricoop.nic.in. Accessed 27 Nov 2018

  2. Aggarwal PK, Kalra N, Chander S, Pathak H (2006a) InfoCrop: a dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. II. performance of the model. Agric Syst 89:47–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Aggarwal PK, Banerjee B, Daryaei MG, Bhatia A, Bala A, Rani S, Chander S, Pathak H, Kalra N (2006b) InfoCrop: a dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. model description. Agric Syst 89:1–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Annual Report (2010–11) ICAR network project on impact, adaptation and vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change. Central Research Institute for Dry Land Agriculture, Hyderabad

  5. Ashiq M, Zhao C, Ni J, Akhtar M (2010) GIS-based high-resolution spatial interpolation of precipitation in mountain–plain areas of Upper Pakistan for regional climate change impact studies. Theor Appl Climatol 99(3):239–253

  6. Boogaard HL, Van Diepen CA, Rotter RP, Cabrera JMCA, Van Laar HH (1998) WOFOST 7.1; User’s Guide for the WOFOST 7.1 Crop Growth Simulation Model and WOFOST Control Center 1.5, Technical Document, Wageningen, DLO Win and Staring Centre, The Netherlands

  7. Dua VK, Govindakrishnan PM, Singh BP and Lal SS (2012) WOFOST calibration and validation for potato under Indian conditions. In Extended Summaries, Vol. 3, Third International Agronomy Congress, New Delhi, p. 1144

  8. Dua VK, Radhika P, Tanvi K, Jagdev S, Anchal R (2018) Climate change and potato productivity in Madhya Pradesh-Impact and adaptation. J Agrometeorol 20(2):97–104

    Google Scholar 

  9. Haverkort AJ. (1990) Ecology of potato cropping systems in relation to latitude and altitude. Agricultural Systems 32(3):251–272

  10. Haverkort AJ, Verhagen A (2008) Climate change and its repercussions for the potato supply chain. Potato Res 51:223–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M and others (eds) Climate change 2013:the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 3–29

  12. Katny MAC, Hoffmann GT, Schrier AA, Fangmeier A, Jager HJ, Bel van AEJ (2005) Increase of photosynthesis and starch in potato under elevated CO2 is dependent on leaf age. J Plant Physiol 162:429–438

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Kochki A, Hosseini M, Nasiri-Mahallati M (1995) Crops in relation to soil and water. Publications Jahad. Mashhad. Iran. ppMavi, H.S. (1986). “Introduction to Agrometeorology” (Ed.), published by Oxford & IBH Publishing Co., pp. 290

  14. Kooman PL, Haverkort AJ (1995) Modelling development and growth of the potato crop influenced by temperature and day length: Lintul-Potato. In: Haverkort AJ, MacKerron DKL (eds) Potato Ecology and Modelling of Crops Under Conditions Limiting Growth. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 41–60

    Google Scholar 

  15. Miglietta F, Magliulo V, Bindi M, Cerio L, Vaccari FP, Loduca V, Peressotti A (1998) Free air CO2 enrichment of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.): development, growth and yield. Glob Chang Biol 4:163–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space (GISS) (2016) “Global temperature,” NASA website, http://climate.nasa.gov/vitalsigns/ global-temperature/, accessed August 2016

  17. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: global climate report for July 2018, published online August 2018, retrieved on August 23, 2018 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201807

  18. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: global climate report for annual 2019, published online January 2020, retrieved on February 4, 2020 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201913

  19. Pandey SR, Kang GS (2003) Ecological zones and Varietal Improvement. In: “The Potato Production and Utilization in Sub Tropics”. (Eds SM Khurana Paul, JS Minhas, SK Pandey). pp 48-60. (Mehta Publishers, New Delhi, India).

  20. Patil DD, Pandey V, Acharya RR, Baraiya LN (2018) Effect of intra-seasonal variation in temperature on tuber yield of potato in middle Gujarat using SUBSTOR model. J Agrometeorol 20(1):22–27

    Google Scholar 

  21. Rosenzweig C, Hillel D (1998) Climate change and the global harvest: potential impacts of the greenhouse effect on agriculture. Oxford University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  22. Reidsma P, Wolf J, Kanellopoulos A, Schaap BF, Mandryk M, Verhagen J, van Ittersum MK (2015) Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands. Environmental Research Letters 10 (4):045004

  23. Singh JP, Lal SS, Govindakrishnan PM, Dua VK, Pandey SK (2008) Impact of climate change on potato. In: Lal SS (ed) Impact assessment of climate change for research priority planning in horticultural crops. Central Potato Research Institute, Shimla, pp 125–136

    Google Scholar 

  24. The Dictionary of the Climate Debate (DCD), tCO2e, http://www.odlt.org/dcd/ballast/tco2e.html, accessed June 2016

  25. Van Diepen CA, Van Keulen H, Penning de Vries FWT, Noij IGAM, Goudriaan J (1987) Simulated variability of wheat and rice in current weather conditions and in future weather when ambient CO2 has doubled. Simulation Reports CABO-TT 14, CABO-DLO, WAU-TPE, Wageningen, The Netherlands

  26. Wolf J, Mandryk M, Kanellopoulos A, van Oort P, Schaap B, Reidsma P, van Ittersum M (2010) Methodologies for analysing future farming systems and climate change impacts in Flevoland as applied within the AgriAdapt project. In: AgriAdapt Project Report No. 1, Wageningen University, Groups Plant Production Systems and Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, The Netherlands p 108

  27. World Bank (2014) Turn down the heat: confronting the new climate normal, p. xviii, available at http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/11/20404287/turn-down-heat-confronting-new-climate-normal-vol-2-2-main-report, accessed May 2016

Download references

Acknowledgements

The present work was carried out under the Strategic Research Component of National Initiatives on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA). Authors are thankful to NICRA for providing the financial and technical assistance to carry out the present work.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Anchal Rana.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic Supplementary Material

ESM 1

(DOCX 13 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rana, A., Dua, V.K., Chauhan, S. et al. Climate Change and Potato Productivity in Punjab—Impacts and Adaptation. Potato Res. (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11540-020-09460-2

Download citation

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • CO2 concentration
  • Potato productivity
  • Temperature
  • Potato cultivars
  • WOFOST