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Science China Earth Sciences

, Volume 60, Issue 11, pp 2001–2012 | Cite as

The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects

  • Mu Mu
  • WanSuo Duan
  • YouMin Tang
Review

Abstract

This paper reviews the historic understanding of the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions, and interprets it in a general framework. On this basis, the existing challenges and unsolved problems in the study of the intrinsic predictability limit (IPL) of weather and climate events of different spatio-temporal scales are summarized. Emphasis is also placed on the structure of the initial error and model parameter errors as well as the associated targeting observation issue. Finally, the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motion in the ensemble-probabilistic methods widely used in current operational forecasts are discussed. The necessity of considering IPLs in the framework of stochastic dynamic systems is also addressed.

Keywords

Atmosphere-ocean Predictability Intrinsic predictability limit Ensemble forecast 

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Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors sincerely thank Meng Zhiyong, Yang Haijun, Ding Ruiqiang, Wu Bo, Wang Qiang, Zhou Feifan, Sun Guodong, Jiang Zhina, Feng Rong and Wu Yujie for their help. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41230420, 41376018 & 41606012).

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© Science China Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghaiChina
  2. 2.Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesQingdaoChina
  3. 3.Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  4. 4.College of Earth SciencesUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  5. 5.Second Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic AdministrationHangzhouChina

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