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Journal of Systems Science and Complexity

, Volume 28, Issue 5, pp 1080–1101 | Cite as

A novel hybrid FA-Based LSSVR learning paradigm for hydropower consumption forecasting

  • Ling Tang
  • Zishu Wang
  • Xinxie Li
  • Lean YuEmail author
  • Guoxing Zhang
Article

Abstract

Due to the nonlinearity and nonstationary of hydropower market data, a novel hybrid learning paradigm is proposed to predict hydropower consumption, by incorporating firefly algorithm (FA) into least square support vector regression (LSSVR), i.e., FA-based LSSVR model. In the novel model, the powerful and effective artificial intelligence (AI) technique, i.e., LSSVR, is employed to forecast hydropower consumption. Furthermore, a promising AI optimization tool, i.e., FA, is especially introduced to address the crucial but difficult task of parameters determination in LSSVR (e.g., hyper and kernel function parameters). With the Chinese hydropower consumption as sample data, the empirical study has statistically confirmed the superiority of the novel FA-based LSSVR model to other benchmark models (including existing popular traditional econometric models, AI models and similar hybrid LSSVRs with other popular parameter searching tools), in terms of level and directional accuracy. The empirical results also imply that the hybrid FA-based LSSVR learning paradigm with powerful forecasting tool and parameters optimization method can be employed as an effective forecasting tool for not only hydropower consumption but also other complex data.

Keywords

Artificial intelligence firefly algorithm hybrid model hydropower consumption least squares support vector regression time series forecasting 

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Copyright information

© Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ling Tang
    • 1
  • Zishu Wang
    • 1
  • Xinxie Li
    • 1
  • Lean Yu
    • 1
    Email author
  • Guoxing Zhang
    • 2
  1. 1.School of Economics and ManagementBeijing University of Chemical TechnologyBeijingChina
  2. 2.School of ManagementLanzhou UniversityLanzhouChina

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