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Journal of Systems Science and Complexity

, Volume 27, Issue 3, pp 507–523 | Cite as

Dynamic price model based on transmission delay — Petroleum price fluctuation in China

  • Yifang LiuEmail author
  • Yue Wang
  • Heng Qiao
Article

Abstract

Petroleum is a kind of fundamental energy resource. Its price fluctuation transmits from upper-stream industry to the lower-stream industry as the production factors price changes. And this leads to the price changes of final consumption. Meantime, due to the cycle of industrial chain, the price changes of lower-stream industry also affect the upper-stream industry in return. This price transmission path is quite complicated. Firstly, it includes both direct and indirect paths; secondly, the transmission process is accompanied with time delay. The traditional input-output price model based on cost-push theory can efficiently solve the first problem when estimating the impact of price fluctuation on the whole price system. However, it neither reflects the dynamic characteristics of price transmission with time nor solves the second problem. To solve this problem, this paper uses the directed weighted network to describe the price transmission among industrial sectors by taking the time-dimension into account, and dynamic price transmission network model is constructed. This model not only describes transmission time delay more accurately, but also calculates the price fluctuation dynamically. On this basis, by utilizing the 2007 Chinese input-output table, this paper conducts empirical analysis on the impact of petroleum price fluctuation on other sectors. The empirical results indicate that the price fluctuation transmission mainly depends on two factors, the price reaction period T k and the consumption relationship with petroleum a ik . 1) If t < T k , then the price change of sector k at period t Δp k t = 0, the petroleum price fluctuation has not transmitted to the sector k, so the price of sector k remains unchanged. 2) If t > T k , then Δp k t > 0, and the greater a ik , the higher price change rate. 3) If t → ∞, it is the same with that in traditional input-output price model. So it can be clearly seen that dynamic price transmission network model is more general than the traditional model, and the traditional model is just an asymptotical special case when time approaches to infinity.

Keywords

Directed weighted network input-output price model petroleum price transmission time delay 

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Copyright information

© Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Economics SchoolCentral University of Finance and EconomicsBeijingChina
  2. 2.Research Center for Climate and Energy FinanceCUFEBeijingChina
  3. 3.School of ManagementUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  4. 4.China Development BankBeijingChina

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