Land use change simulation and spatial analysis of ecosystem service value in Shijiazhuang under multi-scenarios

Abstract

Simulating changes in the value of ecosystem services caused by land use changes in large cities under multiple scenarios is of great significance for cities to formulate land use policies and improve ecosystem services. Take Shijiazhuang, which is in the process of rapid urbanization, as an example. Based on the remote sensing image data and statistical yearbook of 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2018 as the basic data to analyze and estimate the 30 years of land use and ecosystem service value changes in Shijiazhuang. According to this, the CA-Markov model was used to simulate the land use change in Shijiazhuang under three scenarios in 2030 and estimate the value of ecosystem services under each scenario, using grid tools to visually express the spatial distribution of ecosystem service values and the degree of agglomeration under three scenarios. The results indicate that the most obvious feature of land use change in Shijiazhuang from 1988 to 2018 was that the farmland area decreased year by year, the built-up expanded rapidly, the farmland area decreased by 86,874.75 hm2 in 30 years, and the built-up increased by 154,711.90 hm2. In 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2018, the ecosystem service value of Shijiazhuang was 32.578 billion yuan, 32.799 billion yuan, 29.944 billion yuan, and 31.251 billion yuan respectively. In 2030, under three scenarios of natural development, farmland protection, and ecological protection, the value of ecosystem services is 331.111 billion yuan, 33.670 billion yuan, and 33.891 billion yuan in order. The hot spots are mainly concentrated in the northwest and southwest of Shijiazhuang, and cold spots are concentrated in the eastern cities, counties, and districts. Based on changes in land use brought about by urban expansion, simulating the value of ecosystem services under multiple scenarios in the future, providing scientific guidance for building urban ecological networks, and realizing sustainable urban ecological development.

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Availability of data and materials

The datasets used or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Funding

This study has been supported by Hebei Province Higher Education Scientific Research Project (Grant No. QN2019023), Hebei Youth College Top Talent Program Project (Grant No. BJ2018117), Youth Fund Project for Humanities and Social Sciences Research of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. 18XJC630007), Joint Project of Major Theoretical and Practical Problems in the Social Sciences of Shaanxi Province (Grant No. 20ST-98), and Social Science Fund of Shaanxi Province (Grant No. 2020R051).

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Xing Gao and Chenxi Li contributed to the conception of the study; Xing Gao, Jie Wang, and Chenxi Li performed the experiment; Xing Gao and Weining Shen contributed significantly to analysis and manuscript preparation; Zhaoying Song performed the data analyses and wrote the manuscript; Chengjing Nie and Xueru Zhang helped perform the analysis with constructive discussions.

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Correspondence to Chenxi Li.

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Gao, X., Wang, J., Li, C. et al. Land use change simulation and spatial analysis of ecosystem service value in Shijiazhuang under multi-scenarios. Environ Sci Pollut Res (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12826-9

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Keywords

  • Change of land use
  • Ecosystem service value
  • CA-Markov
  • Hot spot analysis