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Integrating genetics and suitability modelling to bolster climate change adaptation planning in Patagonian Nothofagus forests

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Abstract

We investigated the impact of past changes in habitat suitability on the current patterns of genetic diversity of two southern beeches (Nothofagus nervosa and Nothofagus obliqua) in their eastern fragmented range in Patagonian Argentina, and model likely future threats to their population genetic structure. Our goal was to develop a spatially-explicit strategy for guiding conservation and management interventions in light of climate change. We combined suitability modelling under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum ~ 21,000 bp), and future (2050s) climatic conditions with genetic characterization data based on chloroplast DNA, isozymes, and microsatellites. We show the complementary usefulness of the distribution of chloroplast haplotypes and locally common allelic richness calculated from microsatellite data for identifying the locations of putative glacial refugia. Our findings suggest that contemporary hotspots of genetic diversity correspond to convergence zones of different expansion routes, most likely as a consequence of admixture processes. Future suitability predictions suggest that climate change might differentially affect both species. All genetically most diverse populations of N. nervosa and several of N. obliqua are located in areas that may be most severely impacted by climate change, calling for forward-looking conservation interventions. We propose a practical spatially- explicit strategy to target conservation interventions distinguishing priority populations for (1) in situ conservation (hotspots of genetic diversity likely to remain suitable under climate change), (2) ex situ conservation in areas where high genetic diversity overlaps with high likelihood of drastic climate change, (3) vulnerable populations (areas expected to be negatively affected by climate change), and (4) potential expansion areas under climate change.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to A. Martínez, M. Huentú, F. Barbero, M. Pastorino, A. Aparicio, and S. Zuki for helping in the collection of the vegetative material and to C. Moreno for laboratory assistance. Genotypes at Quilanlahue population were gently provided by G. Sola. Sampling of Nothofagus species in National Parks was authorized by the INTA-APN collaboration agreement. This research has been supported by the INIA—Spain financed project “Strengthening Regional Collaboration in Conservation and Sustainable Use of Forest Genetic Resources in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa” within the context of MAPFORGEN, by INTA (PNFOR 1104063 and 1104064) and by PIP11220110100891 CONICET, Argentina.

Funding

We thank the CGIAR program on Forests Trees and Agroforestry for financial support.

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Author notes

  1. P. Marchelli and E. Thomas contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Genética Ecológica y Mejoramiento Forestal, INTA EEA Bariloche, Modesta Victoria 4450 (8400), San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina

    P. Marchelli, M. M. Azpilicueta & L. Gallo

  2. CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    P. Marchelli

  3. Bioversity International, Lima, Perú

    E. Thomas

  4. Bioversity International, Costa Rica Office, Turrialba, Costa Rica

    M. van Zonneveld

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  1. P. Marchelli
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Correspondence to P. Marchelli.

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Genotypic data for the three genetic markers are provided as supplementary material (Table S3).

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Communicated by D. B. Neale

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Marchelli, P., Thomas, E., Azpilicueta, M.M. et al. Integrating genetics and suitability modelling to bolster climate change adaptation planning in Patagonian Nothofagus forests. Tree Genetics & Genomes 13, 119 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11295-017-1201-5

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