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Hydrogeomorphic modeling of low-marsh habitat in coastal Georgian Bay, Lake Huron

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Abstract

Potential impacts of global climate change on the amount of low-marsh habitat in coastal wetlands of the Great Lakes are unknown, which may have important implications for the Great Lakes fish community that use such habitat. We developed a generalized linear model that uses only hydrogeomorphic (HGM) features and lake elevations to predict the extent of low marsh in coastal wetlands of eastern and northern Georgian Bay. The McMaster Coastal Wetland Inventory was used as a reference dataset to train the model, while best available data were assembled to create a digital elevation model that was used to derive all HGM features at a lake elevation of 176.17 m (International Great Lakes Datum 1985). The best predictive model included depth, slope, and exposure as HGM variables, yielding an area under the curve (AUC) score of 0.83. We classified the model output into low-marsh and open-water habitat using a threshold value identified by maximizing the true skill statistic. The classified model output had sensitivity and specificity scores of 0.80 and 0.75, respectively, and correctly identified 81% of the low-marsh units present in the reference dataset with an average 60% areal overlap between the model prediction and reference dataset. We applied the model to two external datasets to check model performance, and found the lowest AUC to be 0.79, with associated sensitivity and specificity scores of 0.65 and 0.77, respectively. Applying this model with future water-level scenarios should provide a cost-effective alternative for forecasting changes in the amount of low marsh-habitat in Georgian Bay.

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Acknowledgements

With regards to the DEM developed for this project, it was produced by McMaster University based on Canadian Hydrographic Service charts and/or data, pursuant to CHS Direct User Licence No. 2016-1121-1260-M. The incorporation of data sourced from CHS in this product shall not be construed as constituting an endorsement by CHS of this project. This product does not meet the requirements of the Charts and Nautical Publications Regulations, 1995 under the Canadian Shipping Act, 2001. Official charts and publications, corrected and up-to-date, must be used to meet the requirements of those regulations. This work was supported in part through an Ontario Graduate Scholarship for Dan Weller and a research contract from Environment and Climate Change Canada. We appreciate the comments from two anonymous reviewers whose input improved the quality of this manuscript.

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  1. Department of Biology, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4K1, Canada

    J. Daniel Weller & Patricia Chow-Fraser

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  1. J. Daniel Weller
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  2. Patricia Chow-Fraser
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Correspondence to J. Daniel Weller.

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Weller, J.D., Chow-Fraser, P. Hydrogeomorphic modeling of low-marsh habitat in coastal Georgian Bay, Lake Huron. Wetlands Ecol Manage 27, 207–221 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-019-09655-6

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