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Comprehensive Assessment and Rechecking of Rainfall Threshold for Flash Floods Based on the Disaster Information

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Abstract

The rainfall threshold assessment of flash floods normally determines the rationality of a single warning duration for a disaster prevention object, which cannot precisely ascertain the overall reliability of the critical rainfall of disaster prevention object. Besides, the complex topographic and geomorphological characteristics of hilly areas increase the uncertainty of rainfall threshold calculation. This study aims to explore the comprehensive assessment and recheck method for rainfall threshold of flash floods, primarily considering the impact of disaster information. We used the time-interval characteristic rainfall and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate the rationality discriminant factor and the weight of warning durations, as well as determined the comprehensive rationality index (CRI) and assessed and rechecked the overall rationality of the rainfall threshold of disaster prevention objects. Then, the time-interval characteristic rainfall assessment method was used to validate the rationality of the rainfall threshold rechecked value against information from a historical actual flash flood. We found that (1) the CRI could effectively distinguish the overall rationality of the rainfall threshold of disaster prevention objects; (2) the CRI of critical rainfall rechecked value increased by about 40%, and the qualified rate of historical flood verification reached 75%, which corroborated more with the actual situation of the study area. Thus, this study elucidates the comprehensive assessment and recheck method and enhancing the rainfall threshold rationality assessment system, offering a valuable reference for the analysis and calculation of early warning indicators of a flash flood.

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Acknowledgements

Relevant research content in this paper was supported by the Natural Sciences Foundation of China (51779229), and the Henan Province Young Backbone Teachers Training Program Project (2016GGJS-004). The authors wish to express deep thanks to the anonymous reviewers for their review.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Water Conservancy and Environment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, Henan Province, China

    Wenlin Yuan, Lei Fu & Qianyu Gao

  2. School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, Henan Province, China

    Fang Wan

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  1. Wenlin Yuan
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  2. Lei Fu
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  3. Qianyu Gao
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  4. Fang Wan
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Correspondence to Lei Fu or Fang Wan.

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Yuan, W., Fu, L., Gao, Q. et al. Comprehensive Assessment and Rechecking of Rainfall Threshold for Flash Floods Based on the Disaster Information. Water Resour Manage 33, 3547–3562 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02321-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02321-9

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