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Climate Change Impact Assessment on Blue and Green Water by Coupling of Representative CMIP5 Climate Models with Physical Based Hydrological Model

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Abstract

Climatic changes have altered hydrological and climatic parameters worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. In order to maintain the sustainable development and acquire the knowledge of water availability, climatic projection must be coupled with hydrological models. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models output were integrated with a calibrated hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) to evaluate the potential effect of climate change on green and blue water over Upper Narmada river Basin (UNB). Therefore, top three representative climate models (MIROC5, CNRM-CM5 and MPI-ESM-LR) from 24 CMIP5 climate models were selected for hydrological modelling. Selected representative climate model outputs were bias corrected by distribution mapping to remove systematic bias correction. Multi-site model calibration approaches indicated Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2) as 0.77 and 0.76 for calibration (1978–1995), and 0.73 and 0.70 for validation (1996–2005), respectively. Calibrated model was run for baseline period (1970–2000) and three futuristic period P1 (2011–2040), P2 (2041–2070) and P3 (2071–2100) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results indicated annual precipitation decreasing under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios changes in green and blue water varying from 16.22 to −14.10% (CNRM,P3) under RCP4.5 and from 38.25 to −22.57% under RCP8.5 with reference to baseline scenario. This study established the sensitivity of UNB to future climatic changes employing projections from CMIP5 climate models and exhibited an approach that applied multiple climate model outputs to estimate potential change over the river basin.

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Acknowledgments

The climatic data used in the manuscript were received from the India Meteorological Department and CORDEX-South Asia program. Historical precipitation and temperature data ordered from IMD, while the CORDEX data were downloaded from the website https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cordex-dkrz. We acknowledge financial assistantship of Ministry of Human and Research Development, Government of India. We would like to acknowledge the modeling group of Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS), University of Tokyo for archive CMIP5 model output and providing the simulation available for analysis.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources Development & Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttrakhand, India

    Brij Kishor Pandey & Deepak Khare

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Akiyuki Kawasaki

  3. Water Resources Systems Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, Uttrakhand, India

    Prabhash K. Mishra

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  1. Brij Kishor Pandey
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  2. Deepak Khare
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  3. Akiyuki Kawasaki
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  4. Prabhash K. Mishra
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Correspondence to Brij Kishor Pandey.

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Pandey, B.K., Khare, D., Kawasaki, A. et al. Climate Change Impact Assessment on Blue and Green Water by Coupling of Representative CMIP5 Climate Models with Physical Based Hydrological Model. Water Resour Manage 33, 141–158 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2093-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2093-3

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