Influence of Rainfall, Model Parameters and Routing Methods on Stormwater Modelling
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Quantification of the uncertainty associated with stormwater models should be analyzed before using modelling results to make decisions on urban stormwater control and management programs. In this study, the InfoWorks Integrated Catchment Modelling (ICM) rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate hydrographs at the outfall of a catchment (drainage area 8.3 ha, with 95% pervious areas) in Shenzhen, China. The model was calibrated and validated for two rainfall events with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency >0.81. The influence of rainfall, model parameters and routing methods on outflow hydrograph of the catchment was systematically studied. The influence of rainfall was analyzed using generated rainfall distributions with random errors and systematic errors (± 30% offsets). Random errors had less influence than systematic errors on peak flow and runoff volume, especially for two rainfall events with larger depths and longer durations. The Monte Carlo simulations using 500 parameter sets were used to verify the equifinality of the nine model parameters and determine the prediction uncertainty. Most of the monitored flows were within the uncertainty range. The influence of two routing methods from rainfall excess to hydrograph was studied. The InfoWorks ICM model incorporating double quasilinear reservoir routing was found to have a larger effect on the simulated hydrographs for rainfall events having larger depths and longer durations than using the U.S. EPA’s Storm Water Management Model nonlinear reservoir routing method did.
KeywordsUncertainty analysis Rainfall–runoff model InfoWorks ICM Random errors Systematic errors Routing methods uncertainty
The study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41530635 and 51109002), Beijing Higher Education Young Elite Teacher Project (YETP1645), and the General Program of Science and Technology Development Project of Beijing Municipal Education Commission of China (KM201510016005).
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