Water Resources Management

, Volume 32, Issue 2, pp 599–617 | Cite as

A Metric Model on Identifying the National Water Scarcity Management Ability

  • Yue Chen
  • Guoping Cen
  • Chuanping Hong
  • Jiying Liu
  • Song Lu


Our planet is getting thirstier and thirstier. Water scarcity has become an increasingly hard but urgent problem. The world's water situation engenders little optimism. About one quarter of the world's population is experiencing water scarcity. Moreover, water resources are unevenly distributed and extremely scarce in Africa and the Middle East. Water scarcity further incurs many international issues such as international conflicts, environmental refugees and disease caused by water pollution, which have made a more unstable world. To make contributions to solve the water problems, this study proposed a metric model to identify the ability of each country to manage water scarcity, and offered solutions to a country considered water over-loaded. In this paper, we developed our metric, Total Scarcity Metric, and divided it into Physical Scarcity Metric ( affected by environmental factors and population) and Economic Scarcity Metric ( affected by social factors other than population) by the two causes of water scarcity. This paper made some adjustments to an indicator we found widely-used in the literatures, and determine Physical Scarcity Metric based on it. Based on that result, Pakistan was chose as a sample region for further analysis, and Pakistan still has a long way to go. This model will prove to be advantageous for a region’s authoritative figures to consult with when in pursuit of obtaining a higher level of water resources allocation. It also can serve as a public rationale to support certain superficially incomprehensive judgments made by the administration.


Water scarcity Total scarcity metric Physical scarcity metric Economic scarcity metric Grey relational analysis Pakistan Water situation forecasting Grey forecasting model Regression analysis Sample plan 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yue Chen
    • 1
  • Guoping Cen
    • 1
  • Chuanping Hong
    • 1
  • Jiying Liu
    • 1
  • Song Lu
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Airfield and Building EngineeringAir Force Engineering UniversityXi’anChina

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