Water Resources Management

, Volume 32, Issue 2, pp 527–545 | Cite as

New Approaches for Estimation of Monthly Rainfall Based on GEP-ARCH and ANN-ARCH Hybrid Models

  • Saeid Mehdizadeh
  • Javad Behmanesh
  • Keivan Khalili


Accurate estimation of rainfall has an important role in the optimal water resources management, as well as hydrological and climatological studies. In the present study, two novel types of hybrid models, namely gene expression programming-autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GEP-ARCH) and artificial neural networks-autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ANN-ARCH) are introduced to estimate monthly rainfall time series. To fulfill this purpose, five stations with various climatic conditions were selected in Iran. The lagged monthly rainfall data was utilized to develop the different GEP and ANN scenarios. The performance of proposed hybrid models was compared to the GEP and ANN models using root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The results show that the proposed GEP-ARCH and ANN-ARCH models give a much better performance than the GEP and ANN in all of the studied stations with various climates. Furthermore, the ANN-ARCH model generally presents better performance in comparison with the GEP-ARCH model.


Estimation Rainfall GEP-ARCH ANN-ARCH 



The authors of the paper would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments, as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) to provide the monthly rainfall data for the present study.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Saeid Mehdizadeh
    • 1
  • Javad Behmanesh
    • 1
  • Keivan Khalili
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Water EngineeringUrmia UniversityUrmiaIran

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