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Water Resources Management

, Volume 31, Issue 15, pp 4715–4729 | Cite as

Multiple Random Forests Modelling for Urban Water Consumption Forecasting

Article

Abstract

The precise forecasting of water consumption is the basis in water resources planning and management. However, predicting water consumption fluctuations is complicated, given their non-stationary and non-linear characteristics. In this paper, a multiple random forests model, integrated wavelet transform and random forests regression (W-RFR), is proposed for the prediction of daily urban water consumption in southwest of China. Raw time series were first decomposed into low- and high-frequency parts with discrete wavelet transformation (DWT). The random forests regression (RFR) method was then used for prediction using each subseries. In the process, the input and output constructions of the RFR model were proposed for each subseries on the basis of the delay times and the embedding dimension of the attractor reconstruction computed by the C-C method, respectively. The forecasting values of each subseries were summarized as the final results. Four performance criteria, i.e., correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and threshold static (TS), were used to evaluate the forecasting capacity of the W-RFR. The results indicated that the W-RFR can capture the basic dynamics of the daily urban water consumption. The forecasted performance of the proposed approach was also compared with those of models, i.e., the RFR and forward feed neural network (FFNN) models. The results indicated that among the models, the precision of the predictions of the proposed model was greater, which is attributed to good feature extractions from the multi-scale perspective and favorable feature learning performance using the decision trees.

Keywords

Wavelet transform Random forests regression Water consumption Attractor reconstruction Forecasting 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the Project in the National Science and Technology Pillar Programme during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period (2012BAJ25B06-003) and the Key Project of University Natural Science Research of Anhui, China (KJ2016A168).

Compliance with Ethical Standards

Conflict of Interest

No interest conflict.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of Urban Construction and Environmental EngineeringChongqing UniversityChongqingChina
  2. 2.Key Laboratory of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Ecological Environment, Ministry of EducationChongqing UniversityChongqingChina
  3. 3.Chongqing Water Group Co., Ltd.ChongqingChina
  4. 4.National Research Base of Intelligent Manufacturing ServiceChongqing Technology and Business UniversityChongqingChina

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