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A Multilevel Multinomial Model for the Dynamics of Graduates Employment in Italy

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Abstract

Several studies have demonstrated that skilled human capital is a key resource for the economic growth of a territory, since it helps to increase productivity, competitiveness and sustainability over time. The aim of this paper is to model the probability of working for university graduates 3 years after degree, taking into account the effectiveness and coherence of a degree with respect to the labour market. Hence, first of all, a multilevel binary logit model for measuring the probability of working will be discussed. Then, a multilevel multinomial model suitable to predict the probability of the possible job status, such as unemployed/unsteady employed/steady employed, will be further proposed. The ISTAT microdata regarding the Italian survey on the graduates’ employment conditions, will be used.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Editor and the reviewers for their interest in the paper and the constructive suggestions provided during the revision process.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Management and Economics (Sect. Mathematics and Statistics), University of Salento, Lecce, Italy

    Sandra De Iaco, Sabrina Maggio & Donato Posa

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  1. Sandra De Iaco
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  2. Sabrina Maggio
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  3. Donato Posa
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Correspondence to Sandra De Iaco.

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De Iaco, S., Maggio, S. & Posa, D. A Multilevel Multinomial Model for the Dynamics of Graduates Employment in Italy. Soc Indic Res 146, 149–168 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-1884-5

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