Citation impact prediction for scientific papers using stepwise regression analysis
- 1k Downloads
Researchers typically pay greater attention to scientific papers published within the last 2 years, and especially papers that may have great citation impact in the future. However, the accuracy of current citation impact prediction methods is still not satisfactory. This paper argues that objective features of scientific papers can make citation impact prediction relatively accurate. The external features of a paper, features of authors, features of the journal of publication, and features of citations are all considered in constructing a paper’s feature space. The stepwise multiple regression analysis is used to select appropriate features from the space and to build a regression model for explaining the relationship between citation impact and the chosen features. The validity of this model is also experimentally verified in the subject area of Information Science & Library Science. The results show that the regression model is effective within this subject.
KeywordsScientific paper Citation impact prediction Feature space Multiple regression
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 70973031).
- Boyack, K. W., & Klavans, R. (2011). Multiple dimensions of journal specificity: Why journals can’t be assigned to disciplines. In E. Noyons, P. Ngulube, & J. Leta (Eds.), The 13th conference of the international society for scientometrics and informetrics (Vol. I, pp. 123–133). Durban: ISSI, Leiden University and the University of Zululand.Google Scholar
- Garfield, E. (1979). Citation indexing: Its theory and application in science, technology and humanities. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
- Kleinbaum, D. G., Kupper, L. L., Muller, K. E., & Nizam, A. (1998). Applied regression analysis and other multivariable methods. Pacific Grove: Brooks/Cole Publishing Company.Google Scholar
- Kohavi, R. (1995). A study of cross-validation and bootstrap for accuracy estimation and model selection. Proceedings of the Fourteenth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2(12), 1137–1143.Google Scholar