Abstract
This paper presents a macro-economic methodology for evaluating the forward-looking Sharpe Ratios of the equity and debt components of the United States public company capital structure. Using this framework, it is shown that the equity and debt Sharpe Ratios are both time variant and disparate. The methodology is used to review the risk aversion behavior of equity and debt market participants surrounding the past three major market events, the 1987 crash, the 2000–2001 Internet bubble and the 2008–2009 credit crisis. The forward-looking Sharpe Ratios are used to construct a dynamic portfolio of stocks and corporate bonds that outperforms a static portfolio on a risk-adjusted basis. This paper then offers market segmentation and the differing behavior of equity and corporate bond investors as an explanation for the observed Sharpe Ratios.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
The Markowitz two asset optimization with a zero correlation results in an equity weight = λ et /[λ et + λ dt * (σ et /σ dt )].
The Markowitz two asset optimization with a negative one correlation results in an equity weight = 1/[1 + * (σ et/σ dt )]. Equation (11) can be rewritten as W et = 1/[1 + (σ et /σ dt ) * (K Et − r et )/(K dt − r dt )].
References
Allen L, Gottesman A (2006) The informational efficiency of the equity market as compared to the syndicated loan market. J Financ Serv Res 30(1):5–42
Avino D, Lazar E (2012) Rethinking capital structure arbitrage. Working paper, University of Reading
Berben R, Jansen WJ (2005) Bond market and stock market integration in europe. Working paper, De Nederlandsche Bank. No. 60. November
Bhamra HS, Kuehn L, Strebulaev IA (2010)The levered equity risk premium and credit spreads: a unified framework. Rev Financ Stud (23)2:646–703
Biglova A, Jasic T, Rachev S, Fabozzi FJ (2004) Profitability of momentum strategies: application of novel risk/return Ratio stock selection criteria. Invest Manag Financ Innov 4(2004):47–61
Bloomberg (2011a) CDS series. Bloomberg
Bloomberg (2011b) GB3, GT10 and GT30 Treasury bond series. Bloomberg
Campbell JY, Cochrane JH (1999) By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior. J Political Econ 107(2):205–251
CBO (1985–1990) Yearly Economic Forecasts. CBO, Washington, DC
Chen L, Collin-Dufresne P, Goldstein RS (2009) On the relation between the credit spread puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. Rev Financ Stud 22(9):3367–3409
Cheung SA, Kwan CCY, Lee J (1995) The pricing of exchange rate risk and stock market segmentation: the Canadian case. Rev Quant Financ Acc 5:393–402
Cornell B (1999) The equity risk premium. Wiley, New Jersey
Cornell B (2012) Dividend-price ratios and stock returns: another look at the history. Working paper, California Institute of Technology
Damodaran A (2010) A new “risky” world order: unstable risk premiums implications for practice. Working paper, New York University
Damodaran A (2011) Equity risk premiums (ERP): determinants, estimations and implications-the 2011 edition. Working paper, New York University
De Jong F, De Roon FA (2005) Time-varing market integration and expected returns in emerging markets. J Financ Econ 78:583–613
DeFusco RA, McLeavey DW, Pinto JE, Runkle DL (2007) Quantitative investment analysis, 2nd edn. Wiley, New Jersey, p 115
Dionne G, Gauthier G, Hammami K, Maurice M, Simonato JG (2010) Default risk in corporate yield spreads. Financ Manage 39(2):707–731
Doran JS, Ronn EI, Goldberg RS (2009) A simple model for time-varying expected returns on the S&P 500 index. J Invest Manage 7:47–72
Driessen J (2005) Is default event risk priced in corporate bonds? Rev Financ Stud 18(1):165–195
Duarte J, Longstaff FA, Yu F (2007) Risk and return in fixed-income arbitrage: nickels in front of a steamroller? Rev Financ Stud 20(3):769–811
Duxbury D, Hudson R, Keasey K, Yang Z, Yao S (2013) How prior realized outcomes affect portfolio decisions. Rev Quant Financ Acc 41:611–629
Elton EJ, Gruber MJ, Agrawal D, Mann C (2001) Explaining the rate spread on corporate bonds. J Financ 56:247–277
Fetch JA, KeaRJ, Kutin JB, Schoen RJ, Vaillancourt JR (2013) Seeking a better balance: Putnam’s dynamic risk allocation strategy. Putnam Investments White Paper
Finnerty JD, Leistikow D (1993) The behavior of equity and debt risk premiums. J Portfolio Manage Summer 19(4):73–84
Forte S, Pena JI (2009) Credit spreads: an empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds and CDS. J Bank Financ 33(2009):2013–2025
Frankfurter GM, Phillips HE, Fauk G (1999) The ex post performance of four portfolio selection algorithms. Rev Quant Financ Acc 13:347–366
Giesecke K, Longstaff FA, Schaefer S, Strebulaev I (2011) Corporate bond default risk: a 150-year perspective. J Financ Econ 102(2011):233–250
Goyenko R, Ukhov A (2009) Stock and bond market liquidity: a long-run empirical analysis. J Financ Quant Anal 44(1):189–212
Guttler A (2005) Using a bootstrap approach to rate the raters. Fin Markets Portfolio Mgmt 19(3):277–295
Huang JZ, Huang M (2012) How much of corporate-treasury yield spread is due to credit risk? Rev Asset Pricing Stud 2(2):153–202
Hull J, Predescu M, White A (2005) Bond prices, default probabilities and risk premiums. J Credit Risk 1:53–60
Kanmg-por Fung L, Tam C, Yu I (2008) Changes in investors’ risk appetite- an assessment of financial integration and interdependence. IFC Bull 31:294–321
Laerd Statistics (2013) www.statistics.laerd.com, Lund Research Ltd
Lam K, Li W (2004) Is the ‘Perfect’ timing strategy truly perfect? Rev Quant Financ Acc 22:39–51
Lin MC (2005) Returns and investor behavior in Taiwan: does overconfidence explain this relationship? Rev Pac Basin Financ Mark Policies 8(3):405–446
Livingston Survey (2011) Historical data. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Lochoff RW (1998) Beating the bond market with no skill. J Portfolio Manage 25:1
Loffler G (2013) Can rating agencies look through the cycle? Rev Quant Financ Acc 40:623–646
Marotta DJ (2012) Using dynamic asset allocation to boost returns. Marotta wealth management white paper
Mehra R (2003) The equity premium: why is it a puzzle? Financ Anal J. January/February:54–69
Mehra R, Prescott EC (1985) The equity premium: a puzzle. J Monet Econ 15:145–161
Merrill Lynch (2011) COAO corporate bond master. Bloomberg
Merton RC (1973) On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates. American Finance Association meetings
Modigliani F, Miller M (1958) The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment. Am Econ Rev 48(3):261–297
Moody’s Global Credit Policy (2009) Corporate default and recovery rates, 1920–2008. Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s Investor Service (2003) Measuring the performance of corporate bond ratings. Special Comment, April 2003
Moody’s Investor Service (2011) Moody’s yield on seasoned corporate bonds-all industrials Baa. U.S. Federal Reserve Report H15
Rogers L (2010) Monthly momentum allocation by Sharpe Ratio—a tactical allocation strategy for maximizing risk-adjusted returns. National Association of Investment Managers Conference
Sharpe WF (1966) Mutual fund performance. J Bus 1966:119–138
Sheskin DJ (2004) Handbook of parametric and nonparametric statistical procedures, 3rd edn. CRC, Chapman & Hall, p 694
SIFMA (2011) Report on US bond market outstanding and US bond market issuance. SIFMA 3/14/2011
Standard & Poor's (2011) History of S&P 500 dividends. Standard and Poors
Titman S (2002) The Modigliani and Miller theorem and the integration of financial markets. Financial management. Spring, New York, pp 101–115
US Census Bureau (2009) Table 1200. Federal reserve release Z.1. Flow of funds March 2010
Wang P, Kochard L (2012) Using a Z-score approach to combine value and momentum in tactical asset allocation. J Wealth Manage 15(1):52–71
Welch I (2000) Views of financial economists on the equity premium and other issues. J Bus 73(4):501–537, with 2009 update
Welch I (2009) Views of economists about the equity premium and policy. Working paper UCLA
Whitelaw RF, Tang Y (2011) Time-varying sharpe ratios and market timing. Q J Financ 1(3):465–493
Yu F (2006) How profitable is capital structure arbitrage? Financ Anal 62(5):47–62
Acknowledgments
The author acknowledges with thanks the comments and feedback of Ehud Ronn, Michael Evelyn, Jayen Patel and the anonymous referees. The author remains solely responsible for any errors in the paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Goldberg, R.S. A methodology for computing and comparing implied equity and corporate-debt Sharpe Ratios. Rev Quant Finan Acc 44, 733–754 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-013-0424-2
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-013-0424-2