Table 7 Coefficients of economic policy uncertainty in dynamic specifications that use annual data

From: Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions

Dependent variable: growth (%) in import volume, by type A. Relative prices: REER B. Relative prices: ratio of import deflator to GDP deflator
log of EPU index log of EPU index: lagged 2 months log of EPU index: lagged 6 months log of EPU index log of EPU index: lagged 2 months log of EPU index: lagged 6 months
1. Goods and services: lagged dep. var. − 2.042** − 2.216** − 1.516** − 2.481** − 2.572** − 1.694**
2. Goods and services: lagged covariates (real GDP and REER) − 3.277*** − 3.349*** − 2.366** − 3.309*** − 3.183*** − 2.049**
3. Goods and services: lagged dep. var. and covariates − 3.035*** − 3.095*** − 2.000** − 3.026*** − 2.887*** − 1.617**
4. Goods (IMF data): lagged dep. var. − 2.250** − 2.451** − 1.722** − 2.661** − 2.767** − 1.769*
5. Goods (IMF data): lagged covariates (real GDP and REER) − 3.482*** − 3.578*** − 2.510** − 3.325** − 3.189** − 1.862*
6. Goods (IMF data): lagged dep. var. and covariates − 3.375** − 3.471** − 2.337** − 3.114** − 2.967** − 1.530
7. Goods (WTO data): lagged dep. var. − 2.451** − 2.720** − 1.898* − 2.412* − 2.633** − 1.779
8. Goods (WTO data): lagged covariates (real GDP and REER) − 3.724** − 3.898*** − 2.718** − 3.179** − 3.197** − 1.853
9. Goods (WTO data): lagged dep. var. and covariates − 3.401** − 3.559*** − 2.313** − 2.706** − 2.706** − 1.280
  1. : Heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors corrected for clustering at country level. *p < 0.10; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01. Panel covers 18 countries and period 1995–2018. The number reported in each cell comes from a regression and represents the coefficient of log of EPU index, either contemporaneous or lagged, depending on the specification. All regressions include country and time fixed effects as well as controls for growth in absorption and in relative prices