Review of Industrial Organization

, Volume 33, Issue 4, pp 281–295 | Cite as

Attendance and the Uncertainty-of-Outcome Hypothesis in Baseball

  • Young Hoon Lee
  • Rodney Fort


Sports offer interesting insights into demand due to the added twist of fan preferences for outcome uncertainty. We add to and amend previous work by analyzing the time series behavior of Major League Baseball attendance (1901–2003) using break point analysis, exploring a wide variety of measures of game uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, and consecutive season uncertainty. Only playoff uncertainty is statistically significant, and it is economically significant only for (1) truly ambitious intervention and (2) recent history. The policy implication is that actual league choices may be motivated by wealth redistribution rather than concerns over competitive balance.


Attendance Outcome uncertainty Break point analysis 

JEL Classifications

L83 C22 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of EconomicsSogang UniversitySeoulKorea
  2. 2.Program in Sport Management, Division of KinesiologyUniversity of MichiganAnn ArborUSA

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