The Review of Austrian Economics

, Volume 28, Issue 1, pp 41–52 | Cite as

Mises and prediction markets: Can markets forecast?



Ludwig von Mises’s methodological position is unique because it combines apriorism with qualitative empirical approach. Nonetheless, Mises’s adherents and detractors continue to characterize his apriorism as rejecting forecasting. This paper argues that a prediction market is a traditional market for forward-looking information; it leverages subjective knowledge and aggregates information via the market process to effectively solve the Hayekian knowledge problem. We argue that Austrian economists should embrace prediction markets as a powerful method of forecasting rooted in human action.


Ludwig von Mises Prediction markets Forecasting 

JEL Codes

B53 L30 M00 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Loyola University New OrleansNew OrleansUSA

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