Quality & Quantity

, Volume 50, Issue 5, pp 2313–2329 | Cite as

An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework for property valuation to identify the ideal 2050 portfolio mixes in EU-27 countries with shrinking populations

  • Roberto Cervelló-Royo
  • Francisco Guijarro
  • Thomas Pfahler
  • Marion Preuss


This paper presents a new methodology to evaluate the development trends of the residential trade and industry up until 2050. In the first step available data are analysed for the period 1970–2050. In the second step an expert assessment based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology is integrated to reflect the estimation of various expert forecasts of the future. The AHP methodology is based on different variables in the fields of demographic, social-environmental as well as build-quality characteristics to imply a widespread perception of the portfolio mix of habitations in 2050. There will mainly be a focus on several EU-27 countries with potential future-shrinking populations like Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Furthermore, they will be compared with Spain whose population is expected to increase.


Analytic Hierarchy Process European Union 27 2050 real estate portfolio Demographic development Social-environmental development 



We want to thank the reviewer for the suggestions he/she made that help us to improve the first draft of this paper.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Roberto Cervelló-Royo
    • 1
  • Francisco Guijarro
    • 1
  • Thomas Pfahler
    • 2
  • Marion Preuss
    • 3
  1. 1.Faculty of Business Administration and ManagementUniversitat Politècnica de ValènciaValenciaSpain
  2. 2.Faculty Economy and Public ManagementHochschule für Angewandte WissenschaftenHamburgGermany
  3. 3.Faculty Economy and Public ManagementHochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften in cooperation with the Universitat Politècnica de ValènciaHamburgGermany

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