Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Terrorism’s effects on social capital in European countries

  • Published:
Public Choice Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Studies have shown that major terrorist events have the potential to exert significant influence on citizens’ risk-perceptions, (in) security sentiments, values and behavioral attitudes towards state institutions and their fellow citizens. Within this growing strand of literature, this paper, allowing for a cohort of demographic and socioeconomic traits, examines the extent to which major terrorist events in four European countries affected two key aspects of social capital, namely institutional and social trust. The data used are drawn from European Social Surveys for the years 2004, 2012 and 2014. Results reported indicate that terrorist incidents can trigger social dynamics that affect trust attitudes; however, these effects are short-lived and dissipate rapidly.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Media coverage of terrorist events will support these qualities. As such, fear is cultivated further within a society and its effects are amplified.

  2. This is because perceptions of state performance and responsiveness are most often identified as key determinants of political trust (e.g., Keele 2007).

  3. The ESS are regarded as the most reliable cross-national surveys of this kind owing to their rigor in sampling methods, questionnaire design, translation, fieldwork, face-to-face interviewing and pilot testing (Kohler 2007).

  4. Other researchers (such as Zmerli and Newton 2008) examine exactly the same institutions in their composite measure of political trust.

  5. Rosenberg (1956) first uses them to form a reliable and valid trust scale.

  6. Earlier studies (such as Paxton 1999) conclude that combining these items is an acceptable means of assessing interpersonal trust.

  7. Details of the P-PCA results and the associated eigenvalues are to be found in Table A1 in the Online Appendix; the Scree plots for each of the two composite indicators are shown in Figures A1-A8.

  8. Detailed descriptions of the variables in are available in Table A2 of the Online Appendix.

  9. This was the case for Spain, where elections were held three days after the Madrid terrorist attack.

  10. The variables’ means per country and incident can be found in Online Table A3.

  11. This is based on the estimated effect on the standardized institutional trust variable.

  12. This is based on the estimated effect on the standardized institutional trust variable.

  13. One trust question is drawn from the World Values Survey and a dummy variable for terrorist attacks is drawn from the ITERATE dataset.

  14. A probit/logit pooled model is estimated for all countries. Tables A4 to A7 in the Online Appendix present the ordered logit model estimates separately for each sub-index of social trust applied in this study. Stronger effects of the terrorist events on social trust are observed, as expected, for Spain and for Belgium (for interpersonal trust).

  15. Again the literature provides mixed evidence on this point. Some studies find females to be less trusting than males (Alesina and Ferrara 2002; Blomberg et al. 2011; Freitag and Buhlmann 2009) and others find females to be more trusting than males (Delhey and Newton 2003; Newton and Zmerli 2011), depending on the time frame and the countries examined.

References

  • Alesina, A., & Ferrara, E. L. (2002). Who trusts others? Journal of Public Economics, 85(2), 207–234.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexander, J. C. (2004). From the depths of despair: Performance, counter performance, and “September 11”. Sociological Theory, 22(1), 88–105.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Back, M., & Kestila, E. (2009). Social capital and political trust in Finland: An individual-level assessment. Scandinavian Political Studies, 32(2), 171–194.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bali, V. (2007). Terror and elections: lessons from Spain. Electoral Studies, 26(3), 669–687.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berrebi, C., & Klor, E. (2006). On terrorism and electoral outcomes. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50(6), 899–925.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bjornskov, C. (2006). The multiple facets of social capital. European Journal of Political Economy, 22(1), 22–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blomberg, S. B., Hess, G. D., & Tan, D. Y. (2011). Terrorism and the economics of trust. Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), 383–398.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bodenhausen, G. V., Sheppard, L. A., & Kramer, G. P. (1994). Negative affect and social judgment: The differential impact of anger and sadness. European Journal of Social Psychology, 24(1), 45–62.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bozzoli, C., & Muller, C. (2011). Perceptions and attitudes following a terrorist shock: Evidence from the UK. European Journal of Political Economy, 27(S1), S89–S106.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Branisa, B., Klasen, S., Ziegler, M., Drechsler, D., & Jütting, J. (2014). The institutional basis of gender inequality: The social institutions and gender index (SIGI). Feminist Economics, 20(2), 29–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brehm, J., & Rahn, W. (1997). Individual-level evidence for the causes and consequences of social capital. American Journal of Political Science, 41(3), 999–1023.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caruso, R., & Locatelli, A. (2014). Understanding terrorism. A socio-economic perspective (Vol. 22)., contributions to conflict management, peace economics and development Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chanley, V. A. (2002). Trust in government in the aftermath of 9/11: Determinants and consequences. Political Psychology, 23(3), 469–483.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chanley, V. A., Rudolph, T. J., & Rahn, W. M. (2000). The origins and consequences of public trust in government: A time series analysis. Public Opinion Quarterly, 64(3), 239–256.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chatagnier, J. T. (2012). The effect of trust in government on rallies’ round the flag. Journal of Peace Research, 49(5), 631–645.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, A., & Siems, T. (2004). The effects of terrorism on global capital markets. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), 349–366.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark, A. K., & Eisenstein, M. A. (2013). Interpersonal trust: An age–period–cohort analysis revisited. Social Science Research, 42(2), 361–375.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coleman, J. S. (1990). Foundations of social theory. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Collins, R. (2004). Rituals of solidarity and security in the wake of terrorist attack. Sociological Theory, 22(1), 53–87.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cowen, T. (2006). Terrorism as theater: Analysis and policy implications. Public Choice, 128(1–2), 233–244.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delhey, J., & Newton, K. (2003). Who trusts? The origins of social trust in seven societies. European Societies, 5(2), 93–137.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delhey, J., & Newton, K. (2005). Predicting cross-national levels of social trust: Global pattern or Nordic exceptionalism? European Sociological Review, 21(4), 311–327.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dustmann, C., & Anna Okatenko, A. (2014). Out-migration, wealth constraints, and the quality of local amenities. Journal of Development Economics, 110, 52–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Echebarria-Echabe, A., & Fernandez-Guede, E. (2006). Effects of terrorism on attitudes and ideological orientation. European Journal of Social Psychology, 36(2), 259–265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Economou, A., & Kollias, C. (2015). Terrorism and political self-placement in European Union countries. Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy, 21(2), 217–238.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (1991). Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: the case of Spain. Terrorism, 14(1), 49–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (2012). The political economy of terrorism (2nd ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Enders, W., Sandler, T., & Parise, G. (1992). An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism. Kyklos, 45(4), 531–554.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferejohn, J. (1986). Incumbent performance and electoral control. Public Choice, 50(1), 5–25.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Filmer, D., & Pritchett, L. (2001). Estimating wealth effects without expenditure data—or tears: An application to educational enrollments in states of India. Demography, 38(1), 115–132.

    Google Scholar 

  • Finseraas, H., & Listhaug, O. (2013). It can happen here: The impact of the Mumbai terror attacks on public opinion in Western Europe. Public Choice, 156(1–2), 213–228.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freitag, M., & Buhlmann, M. (2009). Crafting trust: The role of political institutions in a comparative perspective. Comparative Political Studies, 42(12), 1537–1566.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gaines, B. J. (2002). Where’s the rally? Approval and trust of the president, cabinet, congress, and government since September 11. Political Science and Politics, 35(3), 531–536.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gassebner, M., Jong-A-Pin, R., & Mierau, J. O. (2008). Terrorism and electoral accountability: One strike, you’re out! Economics Letters, 100(1), 126–129.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Glaeser, E. L., Laibson, D. I., Scheinkman, J. A., & Soutter, C. L. (2000). Measuring trust. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(3), 811–846.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greenberg, J., & Jonas, E. (2003). Psychological motives and political orientation—the left, the right, and the rigid: Comment on Jost et al. (2003). Psychological Bulletin, 129(3), 376–382.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gronlund, K., & Setala, M. (2012). In honest officials we trust: Institutional confidence in Europe. The American Review of Public Administration, 42(5), 523–542.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gross, K., Aday, S., & Brewer, P. R. (2004). A panel study of media effects on political and social trust after September 11, 2001. The Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics, 9(4), 49–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halpern, D. (1999). Social capital: The new golden goose?. London: Institute for Public Policy Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heath, R. L., & Waymer, D. (2014). Terrorism: social capital, social construction, and constructive society? Public Relations Inquiry, 3(2), 227–244.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hetherington, M., & Nelson, M. (2003). Anatomy of a rally effect: George W. Bush and the War on Terrorism. Political Science and Politics, 36(1), 37–42.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huddy, L., & Feldman, S. (2006). Personal threat, domestic security, and the erosion of civil liberties. Presented to the International Society of Political Psychology, Barcelona.

  • Huddy, L., Feldman, S., Capelos, T., & Provost, C. (2002). The consequences of terrorism: Disentangling the effects of personal and national threat. Political Psychology, 23(3), 485–509.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jakobsson, N., & Blom, S. (2014). Did the 2011 terror attacks in Norway change citizens’ attitudes toward immigrants? International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 26(4), 475–486.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jolliffe, I. T. (2002). Principal component analysis. New York: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keele, L. (2007). Social capital and the dynamics of trust in government. American Journal of Political Science, 51(2), 241–254.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knack, S., & Keefer, P. (1997). Does social capital have an economic payoff? A cross-country investigation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(4), 1251–1288.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kohler, U. (2007). Assessing the quality of European surveys: Towards an open method of coordination for survey data. In J. Alber, T. Fahey, & C. Saraceno (Eds.), Handbook of quality of life in the enlarged European Union (pp. 405–424). London: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kolenikov, S., & Angeles, G. (2009). Socioeconomic status measurement with discrete proxy variables: Is principal component analysis a reliable answer? Review of Income and Wealth, 55(1), 128–165.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kollias, C., Papadamou, S., & Arvanitis, V. (2013). Does terrorism affect the stock-bond covariance? Evidence from European countries. Southern Economic Journal, 79(4), 832–848.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Konty, M., Duell, B., & Joireman, J. (2004). Scared selfish: A culture of fear’s values in the age of terrorism. The American Sociologist, 35(2), 93–109.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krieger, T., & Meierrieks, D. (2011). What causes terrorism? Public Choice, 147(1–2), 3–27.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Legewie, J. (2013). Terrorist events and attitudes toward immigrants: A natural experiment. American Journal of Sociology, 118(5), 1199–1245.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Montalvo, J. (2011). Voting after the bombings: A natural experiment on the effect of terrorist attacks on democratic elections. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(4), 1146–1154.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moser, C., & Felton, A. (2007). The construction of an asset index measuring asset accumulation in Ecuador. Chronic Poverty Research Center, Working Paper No. 87, Washington, USA.

  • Mueller, J. E. (1973). War, presidents and public opinion. New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Newton, K. (2001). Trust, social capital, civic society, and democracy. International Political Science Review, 22(2), 201–214.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newton, K., & Zmerli, S. (2011). Three forms of trust and their association. European Political Science Review, 3(2), 169–200.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Origo, F., & Pagani, L. (2009). Flexicurity and job satisfaction in Europe: The importance of perceived and actual job stability for well-being at work. Labour Economics, 16(5), 547–555.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paldam, M. (2000). Social capital: One or many? Definition and measurement. Journal of Economic Surveys, 14(5), 629–653.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paxton, P. (1999). Is social capital declining in the United States? A multiple indicator assessment. American Journal of Sociology, 105(1), 88–127.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paxton, P. (2005). Trust in decline? Contexts, 4(1), 40–45.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perrin, A. J., & Smolek, S. J. (2009). Who trusts? Race, gender and the September 11 rally effect among young adults. Social Science Research, 38(1), 134–145.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Putnam, R. D. (1995). Tuning in, tuning out: The strange disappearance of social capital in America. Political Science and Politics, 28(4), 664–683.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Putnam, R. D. (2000). Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community. New York: Simon and Schuster.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Putnam, R. D. (2002). Bowling together. The American Prospect, 13(3), 20–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Putnam, R. D., Leonardi, R., & Nanetti, R. Y. (1993). Making democracy work: Civic traditions in modern Italy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pyszczynski, T. A., Solomon, S., & Greenberg, J. (2003). In the wake of 9/11: The psychology of terror. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Reeskens, T., & Hooghe, M. (2008). Cross-cultural measurement equivalence of generalized trust. Evidence from the European social survey (2002 and 2004). Social Indicators Research, 85(3), 515–532.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, M. (1956). Misanthropy and political ideology. American Sociological Review, 21(6), 690–695.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rothstein, B. (2000). Trust, social dilemmas and collective memories. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 12(4), 477–501.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rothstein, B., & Stolle, D. (2008). The state and social capital: An institutional theory of generalized trust. Comparative Politics, 40(4), 441–459.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sander, T. H., & Putnam, R. D. (2010). Still bowling alone? The post-9/11 split. Journal of Democracy, 21(1), 9–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sandler, T. (2014). The analytical study of terrorism: Taking stock. Journal of Peace Research, 51(2), 257–271.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sandler, T., Arce, D. G., & Enders, E. (2011). An evaluation of INTERPOL’s cooperative-based counterterrorism linkages. Journal of Law and Economics, 54(1), 79–110.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sandler, T., Tschirhart, J. T., & Cauley, J. (1983). A theoretical analysis of transnational terrorism. The American Political Science Review, 77(1), 36–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schubert, J. N., Stewart, P. A., & Curran, M. A. (2002). A defining presidential moment: 9/11 and the rally effect. Political Psychology, 23(3), 559–583.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shughart, W. F., II. (2006). An analytical history of terrorism, 1945–2000. Public Choice, 128(1–2), 7–39.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sinclair, S. J., & Antonius, D. (2012). The psychology of terrorism fears. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Sinclair, S., & LoCicero, A. (2010). Do fears of terrorism predict trust in government? Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 2(1), 57–68.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, M. N. (2008). Terrorism, shared rules and trust. Journal of Political Philosophy, 16(2), 201–219.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spilerman, S., & Stecklov, G. (2009). Societal Responses to Terrorist Attacks. Annual Review of Sociology, 35, 176–189.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tallman, M. (2007). Patriotism, or bread and circuses? A brief discussion of the September–October 2001 rally ‘round the flag effect. Critique: A Worldwide Journal of Politics, 64–80.

  • ter Huurne, E. F. J., & Gutteling, J. M. (2009). How to trust? The importance of self-efficacy and social trust in public responses to industrial risks. Journal of Risk Research, 12(6), 809–824.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Traugott, M., Brader, T., Coral, D., Curtin, R., Featherman, D., Groves, R., et al. (2002). How Americans responded: A study of public reactions to 9/11/01. Political Science and Politics, 35(3), 511–516.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uslaner, E. M. (2002). The moral foundations of trust. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Uslaner, E. M. (2008). The foundations of trust: Macro and micro. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32(2), 289–294.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uslaner, E., Canetti-Nissim, D., & Pedahzur, A. (2004). Terrorism and trust: Sustained violence and the social fabric in Israel. Unpublished manuscript available through http://www.bsos.umd.edu/gvpt/uslaner/working.htm.

  • Van Praag, B. M. S., & Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A. (2008). Happiness quantified: A satisfaction calculus approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • van Staveren, I., & Knorringa, P. (2007). Unpacking social capital in economic development: How social relations matter. Review of Social Economy, 65(1), 107–135.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Welch, M. R., Rivera, R. E., Conway, B. P., Yonkoski, J., Lupton, P. M., & Giancola, R. (2005). Determinants and consequences of social trust. Sociological Inquiry, 75(4), 453–473.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willer, R. (2004). The effects of federal government-issued terror warnings on presidential approval ratings. Current Research in Social Psychology, 10(1), 1–12.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zmerli, S., & Newton, K. (2008). Social trust and attitudes toward democracy. Public Opinion Quarterly, 72(4), 706–724.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The paper has greatly benefited from the insightful comments and constructive suggestions by Todd Sandler, two anonymous referees and the participants of the 7th Conference on Terrorism and Policy, University of Texas at Dallas. We are also grateful to the Editor in Chief for editorial corrections that improved the final version of the manuscript. The usual disclaimer applies.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, University of Thessaly, 43 Korai street, 38333, Volos, Greece

    Paschalis Arvanitidis, Athina Economou & Christos Kollias

Authors
  1. Paschalis Arvanitidis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Athina Economou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Christos Kollias
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christos Kollias.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 68 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Arvanitidis, P., Economou, A. & Kollias, C. Terrorism’s effects on social capital in European countries. Public Choice 169, 231–250 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-016-0370-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-016-0370-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation