Advertisement

Prevention Science

, Volume 20, Issue 6, pp 811–823 | Cite as

Demographic Moderation of the Prediction of Adolescent Alcohol Involvement Trajectories

  • Nisha C. GottfredsonEmail author
  • Blythe E. Rhodes
  • Susan T. Ennett
Article
  • 232 Downloads

Abstract

Several school- and family-based preventive interventions target and effectively reduce adolescent alcohol misuse. However, whether demographic groups achieve equal success with these interventions is unclear. In particular, most interventions target younger adolescents, and program effectiveness tends to be measured with majority White samples; subgroup analyses are rarely reported. We analyze longitudinal data from a sample of N = 6189 adolescents (40% Black, 60% White; 50% female) in 6th through 12th grade to quantify the degree to which age, race, and gender moderate the associations between seven well-known risk and protective factors (RPFs) that serve as common intervention targets. The RPFs that we study are drawn from social learning theory, problem behavior theory, and social control theory, including individual factors (positive alcohol expectancies and deviant behavior), family context (perceived parental involvement, perceived parent alcohol use, and access to alcohol), and peer context (descriptive and injunctive norms). Multilevel growth models allow us to conduct the demographic subgroup moderation analysis. Results suggest that these well-studied RPFs explain alcohol involvement to varying degrees, but they explain substantially more variation in alcohol involvement by White adolescents compared with Black adolescents. We find differential patterns of significance and of leading predictors of alcohol involvement as a function of age, race, and gender and the interactions thereof. These results indicate that the prevention field needs to better understand the RPFs affecting minority and high school youth in order to provide a stronger basis for alcohol prevention efforts.

Keywords

Adolescent Alcohol Trajectories Subgroups Tailored interventions 

Notes

Funding

Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health through grant funding awarded to Drs. Ennett (R01 DA013459) and Gottfredson (K01 DA035153).

Compliance with Ethical Standards

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

The study was approved by the UNC Institutional Review Board.

Informed Consent

All participants in this study consented to participate after parents assented.

Disclaimer

The content of this manuscript is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not represent the official views of the NIH.

Supplementary material

11121_2018_946_MOESM1_ESM.docx (94 kb)
ESM 1 (DOCX 94 kb)

References

  1. Bandura, A., & Walters, R. H. (1977). Social learning theory (Vol. 1): Prentice-Hall NJ.Google Scholar
  2. Bauer, D. J., & Hussong, A. M. (2009). Psychometric approaches for developing commensurate measures across independent studies: Traditional and new models. Psychological Methods, 14, 101.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  3. Biesanz, J. C., Deeb-Sossa, N., Papadakis, A., Bollen, K., & Curran, P. (2004). The role of coding time in estimating and interpreting growth curve models. Psychological Methods, 9, 30–52.  https://doi.org/10.1037/1082-989X.9.1.30.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  4. Bolland, K. A., Bolland, J. M., Tomek, S., Devereaux, R. S., Mrug, S., & Wimberly, J. C. (2016). Trajectories of adolescent alcohol use by gender and early initiation status. Youth & Society, 48, 3–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Botvin, G. J., & Griffin, K. W. (2004). Life skills training: Empirical findings and future directions. Journal of Primary Prevention, 25, 211–232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Botvin, G. J., Schinke, S. P., Epstein, J. A., Diaz, T., & Botvin, E. M. (1995). Effectiveness of culturally focused and generic skills training approaches to alcohol and drug abuse prevention among minority adolescents: Two-year follow-up results. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 9, 183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bradizza, C. M., Reifman, A., & Barnes, G. M. (1999). Social and coping reasons for drinking: Predicting alcohol misuse in adolescents. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 60, 491–499.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  8. Carney, T., & Myers, B. (2012). Effectiveness of early interventions for substance-using adolescents: Findings from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Substance Abuse Treatment, Prevention, and Policy, 7, 1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Case, S. (2007). Indicators of adolescent alcohol use: A composite risk factor approach. Substance Use & Misuse, 42, 89–111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chartier, K., Hesselbrock, M., & Hesselbrock, V. (2010). Development and vulnerability factors in adolescent alcohol use. Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Clinics of North America, 19, 493–504.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  11. Chassin, L., Pitts, S. C., & Prost, J. (2002). Binge drinking trajectories from adolescence to emerging adulthood in a high-risk sample: Predictors and substance abuse outcomes. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 70, 67.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  12. Chen, P., & Jacobson, K. C. (2012). Developmental trajectories of substance use from early adolescence to young adulthood: Gender and racial/ethnic differences. Journal of Adolescent Health, 50, 154–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Choukas-Bradley, S., Giletta, M., Neblett, E. W., & Prinstein, M. J. (2015). Ethnic differences in associations among popularity, likability, and trajectories of adolescents’ alcohol use and frequency. Child Development, 86, 519–535.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  14. Clark, T., Corneille, M., & Coman, E. (2013). Developmental trajectories of alcohol use among monoracial and biracial Black adolescents and adults. Journal of Psychoactive Drugs, 45, 249.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  15. Cooper, M. L., Krull, J. L., Agocha, V. B., Flanagan, M. E., Orcutt, H. K., Grabe, S., & Jackson, M. (2008). Motivational pathways to alcohol use and abuse among Black and White adolescents. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 117, 485.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Curran, P. J., McGinley, J. S., Bauer, D. J., Hussong, A. M., Burns, A., Chassin, L., & Zucker, R. (2014). A moderated nonlinear factor model for the development of commensurate measures in integrative data analysis. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 49, 214–231.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  17. Danielsson, A.-K., Wennberg, P., Tengström, A., & Romelsjö, A. (2010). Adolescent alcohol use trajectories: Predictors and subsequent problems. Addictive Behaviors, 35, 848–852.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  18. Dauber, S. E., Paulson, J. F., & Leiferman, J. A. (2011). Race-specific transition patterns among alcohol use classes in adolescent girls. Journal of Adolescence, 34, 407–420.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  19. Elliott, D., Huizinga, D., & Ageton, S. (1985). Explaining delinquency and drug use. Thousand Oaks: Sage.Google Scholar
  20. Enders, C., Mistler, S., & Keller, B. (2016). Multilevel multiple imputation: Review and evaluation of joint modeling and chained equations imputation. Psychological Methods, 21, 222.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  21. Ennett, S. T., Bauman, K. E., Hussong, A., Faris, R., Foshee, V. A., Cai, L., & DuRant, R. H. (2006). The peer context of adolescent substance use: Findings from social network analysis. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 16, 159–186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Ennett, S. T., Jackson, C., Cole, V. T., Haws, S., Foshee, V. A., Reyes, H. L. M., & Cai, L. (2016). A multidimensional model of mothers’ perceptions of parent alcohol socialization and adolescent alcohol misuse. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 30, 18.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  23. Ewing, S. W. F., Wray, A. M., Mead, H. K., & Adams, S. K. (2012). Two approaches to tailoring treatment for cultural minority adolescents. Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment, 43, 190–203.CrossRefPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  24. Farrell, A. D., Kung, E. M., White, K. S., & Valois, R. F. (2000). The structure of self-reported aggression, drug use, and delinquent behaviors during early adolescence. Journal of Clinical Child Psychology, 29, 282–292.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Flory, K., Brown, T. L., Lynam, D. R., Miller, J. D., Leukefeld, C., & Clayton, R. R. (2006). Developmental patterns of African American and Caucasian adolescents’ alcohol use. Cultural Diversity and Ethnic Minority Psychology, 12, 740.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  26. Foxcroft, D. R., & Tsertsvadze, A. (2012). Cochrane Review: Universal school-based prevention programs for alcohol misuse in young people. Evidence-Based Child Health: A Cochrane Review Journal, 7, 450–575.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Gottfredson, D. C., & Koper, C. S. (1996). Race and sex differences in the prediction of drug use. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 64, 305.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  28. Gottfredson, D. C., Cook, T. D., Gardner, F. E., Gorman-Smith, D., Howe, G. W., Sandler, I. N., & Zafft, K. M. (2015). Standards of evidence for efficacy, effectiveness, and scale-up research in prevention science: Next generation. Prevention Science, 16, 893–926.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  29. Gottfredson, N. C., Sterba, S. K., & Jackson, K. M. (2017). Explicating the conditions under which multilevel multiple imputation mitigates bias resulting from random coefficient-dependent missing longitudinal data. Prevention Science : the Official Journal of the Society for Prevention Research, 18, 12–19.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11121-016-0735-3.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Griffin, K. W., & Botvin, G. J. (2010). Evidence-based interventions for preventing substance use disorders in adolescents. Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Clinics, 19, 505–526.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Hirchi, T. (1969). Causes of delinquency. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
  32. Jackson, C., Henriksen, L., & Foshee, V. A. (1998). The Authoritative Parenting Index: Predicting health risk behaviors among children and adolescents. Health Education & Behavior, 25, 319–337.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Jessor, R. (1987). Problem-behavior theory, psychosocial development, and adolescent problem drinking. Addiction, 82, 331–342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Jester, J. M., Wong, M. M., Cranford, J. A., Buu, A., Fitzgerald, H. E., & Zucker, R. A. (2015). Alcohol expectancies in childhood: Change with the onset of drinking and ability to predict adolescent drunkenness and binge drinking. Addiction, 110, 71–79.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  35. Kann, L., McManus, T., Harris, W. A., Shanklin, S. L., Flint, K. H., Queen, B., & Thornton, J. (2018). Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2017. MMWR Surveillance Summaries, 67, 1.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  36. Kelly, A. B., Toumbourou, J. W., O’Flaherty, M., Patton, G. C., Homel, R., Connor, J. P., & Williams, J. (2011). Family relationship quality and early alcohol use: Evidence for gender-specific risk processes. Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, 72, 399–407.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  37. Leung, R. K., Toumbourou, J. W., & Hemphill, S. A. (2014). The effect of peer influence and selection processes on adolescent alcohol use: A systematic review of longitudinal studies. Health Psychology Review, 8, 426–457.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Martineau, K. M., & Cook, E. C. (2017). Trajectories of adolescent alcohol use: The effect of individual and social risk factors by race. Journal of Child & Adolescent Substance Abuse, 26, 387–400.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Midford, R. (2010). Drug prevention programmes for young people: Where have we been and where should we be going? Addiction, 105, 1688–1695.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  40. Millsap, R. E. (1998). Group differences in regression intercepts: Implications for factorial invariance. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 33, 403–424.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  41. Montes, K. S., Witkiewitz, K., Andersson, C., Fossos-Wong, N., Pace, T., Berglund, M., & Larimer, M. E. (2017). Trajectories of positive alcohol expectancies and drinking: An examination of young adults in the US and Sweden. Addictive Behaviors, 73, 74–80.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  42. Newcomb, M. D., & Bentler, P. M. (1986). Substance use and ethnicity: Differential impact of peer and adult models. The Journal of Psychology, 120, 83–95.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  43. Newton, N. C., Conrod, P., Teesson, M., & Faggiano, F. (2012). School-based alcohol and other drug prevention. In Drug abuse and addiction in medical illness (pp. 545-560). New York, NY, Springer.Google Scholar
  44. Newton, N. C., Barrett, E. L., Swaffield, L., & Teesson, M. (2014). Risky cognitions associated with adolescent alcohol misuse: Moral disengagement, alcohol expectancies and perceived self-regulatory efficacy. Addictive Behaviors, 39, 165–172.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  45. Park, E., McCoy, T. P., Erausquin, J. T., & Bartlett, R. (2018). Trajectories of risk behaviors across adolescence and young adulthood: The role of race and ethnicity. Addictive Behaviors, 76, 1–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Patrick, M. E., Wray-Lake, L., Finlay, A. K., & Maggs, J. L. (2009). The long arm of expectancies: Adolescent alcohol expectancies predict adult alcohol use. Alcohol & Alcoholism, 45, 17–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Pedersen, E. R., Osilla, K. C., Miles, J. N., Tucker, J. S., Ewing, B. A., Shih, R. A., & D’Amico, E. J. (2017). The role of perceived injunctive alcohol norms in adolescent drinking behavior. Addictive Behaviors, 67, 1–7.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  48. Petraitis, J., Flay, B. R., & Miller, T. Q. (1995). Reviewing theories of adolescent substance use: Organizing pieces in the puzzle. Psychological Bulletin, 117, 67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Raudenbush, S. W., & Bryk, A. S. (2002). Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods (Vol. 1). Thousand Oaks: Sage.Google Scholar
  50. Rohrbach, L. A., Gunning, M., Sun, P., & Sussman, S. (2010). The project towards no drug abuse (TND) dissemination trial: Implementation fidelity and immediate outcomes. Prevention Science, 11, 77–88.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  51. SAMHSA. (2014). 2013 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. MD.Google Scholar
  52. SAMHSA. (2016). 2016 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. MD.Google Scholar
  53. Schulte, M., Ramo, D., & Brown, S. (2009). Gender differences in factors influencing alcohol use and drinking progression among adolescents. Clinical Psychology Review, 29, 535.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  54. Seffrin, P. (2016) Alcohol use among black and white adolescents: exploring the influence of interracial friendship, the racial composition of peer groups, and communities. The Sociological Quarterly, 53(4), 610–635.Google Scholar
  55. Soole, D. W., Mazerolle, L., & Rombouts, S. (2008). School-based drug prevention programs: A review of what works. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 41, 259–286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Spoth, R., Greenberg, M., & Turrisi, R. (2008) Preventive interventions addressing underage drinking: state of the evidence and steps toward public health impact. Pediatrics, 121(Supplement 4), S311–S336.Google Scholar
  57. Stephens, P. C., Sloboda, Z., Stephens, R., Teasdale, B., Grey, S., Hawthorne, R., & Williams, J. (2009). Universal school-based substance abuse prevention programs. Drug & Alcohol Dependence, 102, 19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Terling Watt, T., & McCoy Rogers, J. (2007). Factors contributing to differences in substance use among Black and White adolescents. Youth & Society, 39(1), 54–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Thissen, D., Steinberg, L., & Kuang, D. (2002). Quick and easy implementation of the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure for controlling the false positive rate in multiple comparisons. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 27, 77–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Tripodi, S., Bender, K., Litschge, C., & Vaughn, M. (2010). Interventions for reducing adolescent alcohol abuse. Archives of Pediatrics & Adolescent Medicine, 164, 85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Tyler, K., Stone, R. T., & Bersani, B. (2007). Examining the changing influence of predictors on adolescent alcohol misuse. Journal of Child & Adolescent Substance Abuse, 16, 95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Van Ryzin, M. J., Fosco, G. M., & Dishion, T. J. (2012). Family and peer predictors of substance use from early adolescence to early adulthood: An 11-year prospective analysis. Addictive Behaviors, 37, 1314–1324.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar
  63. Vermeulen-Smit, E., Koning, I. M., Verdurmen, J. E., Van der Vorst, H., Engels, R. C., & Vollebergh, W. A. (2012). The influence of paternal and maternal drinking patterns within two-partner families on the initiation and development of adolescent drinking. Addictive Behaviors, 37, 1248–1256.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  64. Walker, S., Treno, A. J., Grube, J. W., & Light, J. M. (2003). Ethnic differences in driving after drinking and riding with drinking drivers among adolescents. Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, 27, 1299–1304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Wallace, J., & Muroff, J. (2002). Preventing substance abuse among African American children and youth. Journal of Primary Prevention, 22, 235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Weichold, K., Wiesner, M. F., & Silbereisen, R. K. (2014). Childhood predictors and mid-adolescent correlates of developmental trajectories of alcohol use among male and female youth. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 43, 698–716.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  67. White, D., & Pitts, M. (1998). Educating young people about drugs: a systematic review. Addiction, 93, 1475–1487.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  68. Wiesner, M., Weichold, K., & Silbereisen, R. K. (2007). Trajectories of alcohol use among adolescent boys and girls: Identification, validation, and sociodemographic characteristics. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 21, 62.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  69. Witbrodt, J., Mulia, N., Zemore, S. E., & Kerr, W. C. (2014). Racial/ethnic disparities in alcohol-related problems: Differences by gender and level of heavy drinking. Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, 38, 1662–1670.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Zucker, R. A. (2008). Anticipating problem alcohol use developmentally from childhood into middle adulthood: What have we learned? Addiction, 103, 100–108.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentralGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Society for Prevention Research 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Gillings School of Global Public HealthUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel HillChapel HillUSA

Personalised recommendations