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A forward Markov model for predicting bicycle speed

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Abstract

Speed prediction of different transport modes is important in applications such as route planning, transport modelling and energy calculations. In this paper we model bicycle speed as a function of slope and horizontal curvature. We developed two models, one with dependence between subsequent observations (a forward Markov model) and one without such a dependence (a generalised linear model). We show through prediction on out-of-sample data that the model including dependence between observations outperforms the model without. To estimate and evaluate our models we use a data set collected using a smart phone application. The data collected includes different sources of error, and therefore we introduce various filtering methods to make the data more appropriate for statistical analysis and model estimation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mobility and Economics, SINTEF, Trondheim, Norway

    Petter Arnesen, Olav Kåre Malmin & Erlend Dahl

Authors
  1. Petter Arnesen
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  2. Olav Kåre Malmin
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  3. Erlend Dahl
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Contributions

The authors confirm contribution to the paper as follows: literature review: Petter Arnesen and Olav Kåre Malmin; app development and data collection: Erlend Dahl; filtering and data preperation: Erlend Dahl and Petter Arnesen; model development and estimation: Petter Arnesen; analysis and interpretation of results: Petter Arnesen, Olav Kåre Malmin and Erlend Dahl; draft manuscript preparation: Petter Arnesen, Erlend Dahl and Olav Kåre Malmin. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Petter Arnesen.

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Arnesen, P., Malmin, O.K. & Dahl, E. A forward Markov model for predicting bicycle speed. Transportation 47, 2415–2437 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-019-10021-x

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