Allocating confirmation with derivational robustness
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Robustness may increase the degree to which the robust result is indirectly confirmed if it is shown to depend on confirmed rather than disconfirmed assumptions. Although increasing the weight with which existing evidence indirectly confirms it in such a case, robustness may also be irrelevant for confirmation, or may even disconfirm. Whether or not it confirms depends on the available data and on what other results have already been established.
KeywordsRobustness Indirect confirmation Climate models Diagrams
This research was financially supported by the Academy of Finland. Thanks for Till Grüne-Yanoff, Jaakko Kuorikoski, Chiara Lisciandra, Uskali Mäki, Caterina Marchionni, Jani Raerinne and Jacob Stegenga for their comments on various versions of this paper. I also wish to thank Jouni Räisänen for directing me to some relevant climate modelling literature, and Jonah Schupbach for the Sherlock Holmes quote. Finally I want to thank an anonymous reviewer for exceptionally useful comments on the manuscript at the final stages. The usual disclaimers apply.
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Conflicts of interest
There are no potential conflicts of interest concerning this paper. Humans or animals were not used in the research and thus there was no need to ask for anybody’s consent.
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