Investigation of earthquake recurrence networks: the cases of 2014 and 2015 aftershock sequences in Ionian Islands, Greece

Abstract

The investigation of earthquake recurrence networks that were constructed from two aftershock sequences in Greece, is performed, aiming to detect whether the structure of networks became distinct (non-random) before the occurrence of either the main shock or a major (strong) aftershock. The network nodes are the time series observations, which are the aftershocks magnitudes. Their binary connections are given by the arbitrary threshold \(\varepsilon\) on the recurrence matrix, which is computed with the Heaviside function. Two aftershock sequences are the 2014 Kefalonia doublet, main shocks (\(M = 6.1\) and \(M = 6.0\)), and the 2015 Lefkada main shock (\(M = 6.5\)) sequence. The earthquake networks are formed for three different thresholds of \(\varepsilon\), for monitoring eight basic network measures and non-trivial properties such as the small world and scale free, and examining their structure during the evolution of the sequences. To assess whether the values of the eight network measures are statistically significant and the network gets non-trivial properties are present, the construction of randomized networks is required and then the comparison of the randomized network values with the ones from the original recurrence networks. The monitoring of network measures reveals that their original values diverge from the statistical significance, i.e., the structure of networks is random, immediately after the main shocks and shortly before the occurrence of the strongest aftershocks. On the contrary, in the intervening time, between the occurrences of main shocks and strongest aftershocks, their original values are statistically significant, which means that reveal the distinct network structure. The small-world and scale-free properties are sought but not revealed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15

References

  1. Abe S, Suzuki N (2004a) Small-world structure of earthquake network. Physica A 337:357–362

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Abe S, Suzuki N (2004b) Scale-free network of earthquakes. Europhys Lett 65:581–586

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Abe S, Suzuki N (2006) Complex-network description of seismicity. Nonlinear Proc Geophys 13:145–150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Abe S, Suzuki N (2007) Dynamical evolution of clustering in complex network of earthquakes. Eur Phys J B 59:93–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Abe S, Suzuki N (2009) Main shocks and evolution of complex earthquake networks. Braz J Phys 39(2A):428–430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Abe S, Pasten D, Munoz V, Suzuki N (2011) Universalities of earthquake-network characteristics. Chin Sci Bull 56(34):3697–3701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Albert R, Barabasi AL (2002) Statistical mechanics of complex networks. Rev Mod Phys 74:47–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Baek WH, Lim G, Kim K, Chang KH, Jung JW, Seo SK, Yi M, Lee DI, Ha DH (2011) Robustness of the topological properties of a seismic network. J Korean Phys Soc 58(6):1712–1714

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Baiesi M, Paczuski M (2004) Scale-free networks of earthquakes and aftershocks. Phys Rev E 69(6):066106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Barabasi A, Albert R (1999) Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science 286(5439):509–512

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Chorozoglou D, Kugiumtzis D, Papadimitriou E (2017) Application of complex network theory to the recent foreshock sequences of Methoni (2008) and Kefalonia (2014) in Greece. Acta Geophys 65(3):543–553

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Chorozoglou D, Kugiumtzis D, Papadimitriou E (2018) Testing the structure of earthquake networks from multivariate time series of successive main shocks in Greece. Physica A 499C:28–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Daskalaki E, Papadopoulos GA, Spiliotis K, Siettos C (2014) Analysing the topology of seismicity in the Hellenic arc using complex networks. J Seismol 18:37–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Daskalaki E, Spiliotis K, Siettos C, Minadakis G, Papadopoulos GA (2016) Foreshocks and short-term hazard assessment of large earthquakes using complex networks: the case of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. Nonlinear Proc Geophys 23:241–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Del Genio C, Kim H, Toroczkai Z, Bassler K (2010) Efficient and exact sampling of simple graphs with given arbitrary degree sequence. PLoS ONE 5(4):e10012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Donges JF, Zou Y, Marwan N, Kurths J (2009) The backbone of the climate network export. Europhys Lett 87:48007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Donner RV, Small M, Donges JF, Marwan N, Zou Y, Xiang R, Kurths J (2011) Recurrence-based time series analysis by means of complex network methods. Int J Bifurcat Chaos 21:1019–1046

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Erdős P, Rényi A (1959) On random graphs Pub Math (Debrecen) 6:290–297

    Google Scholar 

  19. Gerstenberger CM, Wiemer S, Jones LM, Reasenberg PA (2005) Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California. Nature 435(7040):328–331

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1944) Frequency of earthquakes in California. Seismol Soc Am Bull 34:185–188

    Google Scholar 

  21. Janer C, Biton D, Batac R (2017) Incorporating space, time, and magnitude measures in a network characterization of earthquake events. Acta Geophys 65:1153–1166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Kanamori H, Anderson L (1975) Theoretical basis of some empirical relations in seismology. Seismol Soc Am Bull 65(5):1073–1095

    Google Scholar 

  23. Karakostas V, Papadimitriou E, Mesimeri M, Gkarlaouni C, Paradisopoulou P (2015) The 2014 Kefalonia doublet (Mw6.1 and Mw6.0) central Ionian Islands, Greece: seismotectonic implications along the Kefalonia transform fault zone. Acta Geophys 63:1–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Lippiello E, Cirillo A, Godano G, Papadimitriou E, Karakostas V (2016) Real time forecast of aftershocks from a single seismic station signal. Geophys Res Lett 43:6252–6258

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Marwan N, Donges JF, Zou Y, Donner RV, Kurths J (2009) Complex network approach for recurrence analysis of time series. Phys Lett A 373:4246–4254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2009.09.042

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Maslov S, Sneppen K (2002) Specificity and stability in topology of protein networks. Science 296:910–913

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Matcharashvili T, Chelidze T, Peinke J (2008) Increase of order in seismic processes around large reservoir induced by water level periodic variation. Nonlinear Dyn 51:399–407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Newman MEJ (2003) Mixing patterns in networks. Phys Rev 67:026126

    Google Scholar 

  29. Newman M (2010) Networks, an introduction. Oxford University Press, Oxford, ISBN: 9780199206650, p 1042

  30. Omori F (1894) On the aftershocks of earthquakes. Sc Imp Univ Tokyo 7:111–120

    Google Scholar 

  31. Papadimitriou E, Karakostas V, Mesimeri M, Ghouliaras C, Kourouklas C (2017) The Mw6.5 17 November 2015 Lefkada (Greece) earthquake: structural interpretation by means of the aftershock analysis. Pure Appl Geophys 174(10):3869–3888

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Pastén D, Torres F, Toledo B, Muñoz V, Rogan J, Valdivia JA (2016) Time-based network analysis before and after the Mw8.3 Illapel earthquake 2015 Chile. Pure Appl Geophys 173(7):2267–2275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Poincaré H (1890) Sur la probleme des trois corps et les équations de la dynamique. Acta Math 13:1–271

    Google Scholar 

  34. Rubinov M, Sporns O (2010) Complex network measures of brain connectivity: uses and interpretations. Neuroimage 52:1059–1069

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Schinkel S, Dimigen O, Marwan N (2008) Selection of recurrence threshold for signal detection. Eur Phys J 164:45–53

    Google Scholar 

  36. Telesca L, Báez-Benitez J (2018) Investigating dynamical features in the long-term daily maximum temperature time series recorded at Adrián Jara, Paraguay. Acta Geophys 66(3):393–403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Utsu T (1961) A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks. Geophys Mag 30:521–605

    Google Scholar 

  38. Utsu T, Ogata Y, Matsura RS (1995) The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity. J Phys Earth 43:1–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Utsu T (2002) Statistical features of seismicity. In: International handbook of earthquake and engineering seismology part A. Academic, San Diego, pp 719–732

  40. Viger F, Latapy M (2015) Efficient and simple generation of random simple connected graphs with prescribed degree sequence. J Complex Netw 4(1):15–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Watts DJ, Strogatz SH (1998) Collective dynamics of small-world networks. Nature 393:440–442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Wessel P, Smith WHF, Scharroo R, Luis JF, Wobbe F (2013) Generic mapping tools: improved version released. EOS Trans AGU 94:409–410

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The maps are generated using the Generic Mapping Tool (Wessel et al. 2013). All the calculations and plots are made using the Matlab software (www.mathworks.com/products/matlab). The financial support by the European Union and Greece (Partnership Agreement for the Development Framework 2014–2020) for the project “Development and application of time-dependent stochastic models in selected regions of Greece for assessing the seismic hazard” is gratefully acknowledged, MIS5004504. Geophysics Department Contribution 932.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to D. Chorozoglou.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Chorozoglou, D., Papadimitriou, E. Investigation of earthquake recurrence networks: the cases of 2014 and 2015 aftershock sequences in Ionian Islands, Greece. Nat Hazards 102, 783–805 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03915-y

Download citation

Keywords

  • Recurrence network
  • Time series
  • Small-world network
  • Scale-free network
  • Aftershock sequence
  • Greek seismicity