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The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies

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Abstract

Oil is an important energy resource. Fluctuation in international crude oil prices affects all aspects of the economy. The exchange rate is one of the important channels for the international crude oil price shock to pass to the real economy and financial markets. The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of oil-importing countries has attracted more and more attention. The US dollar is the main invoice and settlement currency of the international oil market. The change of the US dollar exchange rate will inevitably affect the international crude oil price. By combing the relevant classic literature and recent literature, the relationship between international crude oil prices and the exchange rate of oil-importing countries is discussed. Due to the different methods of use, the relationship between the two is not conclusive. This paper probes into the impact paths of national crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of oil-importing countries, but the influence level depends on the relative degree of each country affected by oil prices, which cannot be generalized. The article summarizes the methods of studying the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, most of which are studying the causal relationship between the two and their mutual influence, nonlinear structure, and volatility spillover effects. Through reviewing and summarizing the relevant literatures, this paper argues that exploring the inherent laws of oil price volatility buffer under different exchange rate regimes and studying the transmission mode and intensity of oil price fluctuations on exchange rate effects can be the focus of future research.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the respected editors and the anonymous referees for their suggestions in this article. Special thanks are given to financial support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71573255) and Double First-Class Construction Cultural Inheritance Innovation Key Special Project (2018WHCC05).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, No. 1, Daxue Road, Xuzhou, 221116, Jiangsu Province, China

    Wei Qiang, Aimei Lin, Chao Zhao, Zhenhua Liu, Manzhi Liu & Xiaozhen Wang

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  1. Wei Qiang
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  2. Aimei Lin
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  3. Chao Zhao
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  4. Zhenhua Liu
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  5. Manzhi Liu
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  6. Xiaozhen Wang
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Correspondence to Aimei Lin.

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Qiang, W., Lin, A., Zhao, C. et al. The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies. Nat Hazards 95, 227–239 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3501-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3501-y

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