Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Global strain rates in western to central Himalayas and their implications in seismic hazard assessment

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Himalayas has experienced varying rates of earthquake occurrence in the past in its seismo-tectonically distinguished segments which may be attributed to different physical processes of accumulation of stress and its release, and due diligence is required for its inclusion for working out the seismic hazard. The present paper intends to revisit the various earthquake occurrence models applied to Himalayas and examines it in the light of recent damaging earthquakes in Himalayan belt. Due to discordant seismicity of Himalayas, three types of regions have been considered to estimate larger return period events. The regions selected are (1) the North-West Himalayan Fold and Thrust Belt which is seismically very active, (2) the Garhwal Himalaya which has never experienced large earthquake although sufficient stress exists and (3) the Nepal region which is very seismically active region due to unlocked rupture and frequently experienced large earthquake events. The seismicity parameters have been revisited using two earthquake recurrence models namely constant seismicity and constant moment release. For constant moment release model, the strain rates have been derived from global strain rate model and are converted into seismic moment of earthquake events considering the geometry of the finite source and the rates being consumed fully by the contemporary seismicity. Probability of earthquake occurrence with time has been estimated for each region using both models and compared assuming Poissonian distribution. The results show that seismicity for North-West region is observed to be relatively less when estimated using constant seismicity model which implies that either the occupied accumulated stress is not being unconfined in the form of earthquakes or the compiled earthquake catalogue is insufficient. Similar trend has been observed for seismic gap area but with lesser difference reported from both methods. However, for the Nepal region, the estimated seismicity by the two methods has been found to be relatively less when estimated using constant moment release model which implies that in the Nepal region, accumulated strain is releasing in the form of large earthquake occurrence event. The partial release in second event of May 2015 of similar size shows that the physical process is trying to release the energy with large earthquake event. If it would have been in other regions like that of seismic gap region, the fault may not have released the energy and may be inviting even bigger event in future. It is, therefore, necessary to look into the seismicity from strain rates also for its due interpretation in terms of predicting the seismic hazard in various segments of Himalayas.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ader T, Avouac JP, Liu Zeng J, Lyon-Caen H, Bollinger L, Galetzka J, Genrich J, Thomas M, Chanard K, Sapkota SN, Raujari S, Shrestha P, Ding L, Flouzat M (2012) Convergence rate across the Nepal Himalaya and interseismic decoupling on the main Himalayan thrust: implications for seismic hazard. J Geophys Res 117:B044403. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009071

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andermann C, Behling R, Cook KL, Emberson R, Hovius N, Marc O, Motagh M, Roessner S, Sens-Schoenfelder C, Turowski JM (2015) Landscape response to the MW 7.9 Gorkha 102 earthquake. GSA Abs Prog, 105-12

  • Anderson JG (1979) Estimating the seismicity from geological structures for seismic risk studies. Bull Seismol Soc Am 69:135–158

    Google Scholar 

  • Arora M, Sharma ML (1998) Seismic hazard analysis—an artificial neural network approach. Curr Sci 75(1):54–59

    Google Scholar 

  • Avouac J-P, Meng L, Wei S, Wang T, Ampuero J-P (2015) Lower edge of locked main Himalayan thrust unzipped by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake. Nat Geosci 8:708e711

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bendick R, Bilham R (2001) How perfect is the Himalayan arc? Geology 29:79–794

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bilham R, Ambraseys N (2005) Apparent Himalayan slip deficit from the summation of seismic moments for Himalayan earthquakes, 1500–2000. Curr Sci 88(10):1658–1663

    Google Scholar 

  • Bilham R, Larson K, Freymueller J, Project ldylhim Members (1997) GPS measurements of presentday convergence across the Nepal Himalaya. Nature 386:61–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bilham R, Gaur VK, Molnar P (2001) Himalayan seismic hazard. Science 293:1441–1444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bilham R, Mencin D, Bendick R, Bürgmann R (2017) Implications for elastic energy storage in the Himalaya from the Gorkha 2015 earthquake and other incomplete ruptures of the Main Himalayan Thrust. Quat Int 46:3–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brune JN (1968) Seismic moment, seismicity and rate of slip along major fault zones. J Geophys Res 73:777–784

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choudhary C, Sharma ML (2017) Probabilistic models for earthquakes with large return periods in Himalaya region. Pure Appl Geophys. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1667-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cornell CA, Vanmarcke EH (1969) The major influences on seismic risk. In: Proceedings of the fourth world conference on earthquake engineering, Santiago, Chile, vol A-1, pp 69–93

  • Cosentino P (1976) Difficulties and related criticism in applying the Gutenberg and Richter relation to the seismic regions in statistical seismology. Boll Geofis Teor Appl 70:79–91

    Google Scholar 

  • Cosentino P, Ficarra V, Luzio D (1977) Truncated exponential frequency-magnitude relationship in earthquake statistics. Bull Seismol Soc Am 67(6):1615–1623

    Google Scholar 

  • Elliott JR, Jolivet R, Gonzalez P, Avouac J-P, Hollingsworth J, Searle M, Stevens V (2016) Himalayan megathrust geometry and relation to topography revealed by the Gorkha earthquake. Nat Geosci 9:174–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gallen SF, Clark MK, Niemi N, Lupker M, Gajurel AP, West AJ, Lowe K, Roback K (2015) Coseismic landslide hazards and geomorphic consequences of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal. GSA Abs Prog, 105-11

  • Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1944) Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bull Seismol Soc Am 34(4):1985–1988

    Google Scholar 

  • Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1954) Seismicity of the earth, 2nd edn. Princeton Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanks TH, Kanamori H (1979) A moment magnitude scale. J Geophys Res 84:2348–2350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holt WE, Kreemer C, Haines AJ, Estey L, Meertens C, Blewitt G, Lavallee D (2005) Project helps constrain continental dynamics and seismic hazards. EOS Trans AGU 86(41):383–387

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khattri KN, Rogers AM, Algermissen ST (1984) A seismic hazard map of India and adjacent areas. Tectonophysics 108:93–134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kijko A (2004) Estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude, M max. Pure Appl Geophys 161(8):1655–1681

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kijko A, Smit A (2012) Extension of the Aki-Utsu b-value estimator for incomplete catalogs. Bull Seismol Soc Am 102(3):1283–1287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kostrov VV (1974) Seismic moment and energy of earthquakes and seismic flow of rock. Izv Acad Sci USSR Phys Solid Earth 1:13–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Kreemer C, Haines J, Holt W, Blewitt G, Lavallee D (2000) On the determination of a global strain rate model. Geophys J Int 52(10):765–770

    Google Scholar 

  • Kreemer C, Holt WE, Haines AJ (2003) An integrated global model of present-day plate motions and plate boundary deformation. Geophys J Int 154(1):8–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lay T, Ye L, Koper K, Kanamori H (2016) Assessment of tele seismically determined source parameters for the April 25, 2015 MW 7.9 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake and the May 12, 2015 MW 7.2 aftershock. Tectonophysics 714:4–20

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindholm C, Sharma ML, Malik S (2006) Seismic hazard estimation in Dehradun city. In: First European conference on earthquake engineering and seismology, Geneva, Sept 3–8, 2006

  • Lisa M, Khan SA, Khwaja AA (2004) Focal mechanism studies of North Potwar deformed zone (NPDZ), Pakistan. Acta Seismol Sin China 17:255–261

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahajan AK, Thakur VC, Sharma ML, Chauhan M (2010) Probabilistic seismic hazard map of NW Himalaya and its adjoining area, India. Nat Hazards 53:443–457

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Molnar P (1979) Earthquake recurrence intervals and plate tectonics. Bull Seism Soc Am 69:115–133

    Google Scholar 

  • Monalisa KAA, Qaiser M (2002) Focal mechanism studies of Kohat and Northern Potwar deformed zone. Geol Bull Univ Peshawar 35:85–95

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohja TP, Decelles PG (2015) Landslide distribution before and after the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in central Nepal: relationships with dip slopes and villages. GSA Abs Prog

  • Paul A, Sharma ML (2011) Recent earthquake swarms in Garhwal Himalaya: a precursor to moderate to great earthquakes in the region. J Asian Earth Sci (JAES) 42:1179–1186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poudel DD (2015) Development of Nepal Argo-Industrial information systems (NAIS): the first-step in rebuilding Gorkha earthquake devastated rural Nepal. GSA Abs Prog, 140-2

  • Roth JP (1976) Les recherches de s6ismicit ~ historique et la magnitude maximale A envisage en un site donn6, Proc. E. S. C. Sump. On earthquake risk for Nuclear Power Plants, Luxemburg

  • Savage JC, Simpson RW (1997) Surface strain accumulation and the seismic moment tensor. Bull Seismol Soc Am 87:1345–1353

    Google Scholar 

  • Schiffman C, Bali BS, Szeliga W, Bilham R (2013) Seismic slip deficit in the Kashmir Himalaya from GPS observations. Geophys Res Lett 40(21):5642–5645

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sella GF, Dixon TH, Mao A (2002) REVEL: a model for Recent plate velocities from space geodesy. J Geophys Res 107:B4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JB000033

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shanker D, Sharma ML (1997) Statistical analysis of completeness of seismicity data of the Himalayas and its effect on earthquake hazard determination. Bull Ind Soc Earthq Technol 34(3):159–170

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharma ML (2001) Seismotectonic implications of Chamoli earthquake of March 29, 1999. In: Proceedings of workshop on recent earthquakes of Chamoli and Bhuj, May 24–26, Roorkee, vol II, pp 359–368

  • Sharma ML (2003) Seismic hazard in Northern India region. Seismol Res Lett 74(2):140–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharma ML, Arora M (2002) Cyclic behaviour of seismicity in the Himalayas and its prediction using ANN, Asian Seismological commission 2002. In: Symposium on seismology, earthquake hazard assessment and risk management, 24–26 Nov, 2002, Kathmandu, Nepal, pp 158–159

  • Sharma ML, Dimri R (2003) Seismic hazard estimation and zonation of northern Indian region for bed rock ground motion. J Seismol Earthq Eng 5(2):23–34

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharma ML, Lindolhm C (2012) Earthquake hazard assessment for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India, including a characteristic earthquake recurrence model for the Himalaya Frontal Fault (HFF). Pure Appl Geophys 169:1601–1617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharma ML, Shanker D (2001) Estimation of seismic hazard parameters for the Himalayas and its vicinity from mix data files. ISET J Earthq Technol 38(2–4):93–102

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharma ML, Khan M, Arora MK (2002) A GIS based approach for seismic hazard assessment, Asian Seismological commission 2002. In: Symposium on seismology, earthquake hazard assessment and risk management, 24–26 Nov, 2002, Kathmandu, Nepal, p 43

  • Sharma ML, Lindholm C, Malik S, Bungum H, Kaynia A, Kumar A (2006) Seismic microzonation of Dehradun city, Indo Norwegian workshop on seismic hazard and risk Assessment, IHC, New Delhi, March 17–18, 2006

  • Shedlock KM, Mcguire RK, Herd DG (1980) Earthquake recurrence in the San Francisco Bay Region, California, from the fault slip and seismic moment, USGS Open File Report, 1980, 80-999

  • Srivastava HN, Bansal B, Sutar AK (2013) Discriminatory characteristics of seismic gaps in Himalaya. Geomat Nat Hazards Risk 6(3):224–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stevens VL, Avouac JP (2015) Interseismic decoupling of the main Himalayan thrust. Geophys Res Lett 42:5828–5837

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Upreti BN, Kumahara Y, Nakata T (2007) Paleoseismological study in the Nepal Himalaya e present status. In: Proceedings of the Korea–Nepal joint symposium on slope stability and landslides, April, 1, 2007, pp 1–9

  • Vernant P, Bilham R, Szeliga W, Drupka D, Skalita S, Bhattacharyya A, Gaur VK, Pelgay P, Cattin R, Berthet T (2014) Clockwise rotation of the Brahmaputra valley: tectonic convergence in the eastern Himalaya, Naga Hills and Shillong plateau. J Geophys Res 119(8):6558–6571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ward SN (1998) On the consistency of earthquake moment rates, geological fault data, and space geodetic strain rates: United States. Geophy J Intern 134(1):172–186. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246x.1998.00556.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woessner J, Wiemer S (2005) Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty. Bull Seismol Soc Am 95(2):684–698

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) (1995) Seismic hazards in southern California: Probable earthquakes, 1994–2004. Bull Seismol Soc Am 85:379–439

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We are thankful to the Department of earthquake engineering for providing all help and support and thankful to Rituraj Nath for helped in preparation of the manuscript. We would like to show our gratitude to reviewers who have very thoroughly reviewed the manuscript which has technically improved the article a lot.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, 247 667, India

    Chhavi Choudhary & Mukat Lal Sharma

Authors
  1. Chhavi Choudhary
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mukat Lal Sharma
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Chhavi Choudhary or Mukat Lal Sharma.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Choudhary, C., Sharma, M.L. Global strain rates in western to central Himalayas and their implications in seismic hazard assessment. Nat Hazards 94, 1211–1224 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3467-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3467-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation