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Modeling and analysis of mining subsidence disaster chains based on stochastic Petri nets

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Abstract

Coal mining that results in goaf causes ground surface subsidence. It will in turn cause a disruptive threat to the surface construction, water, and slope body, which constitutes a transitive relationship. In the process of a disaster chain, the interactions between disasters have serious negative consequences. To solve these problems, we clearly established model elements of the disaster chain and analyzed their control flow relationships. On that basis, the stochastic Petri nets, as a powerful mathematical modeling tool that can be used to describe discrete and distributed systems, were adopted to model the process of mine ground surface subsidence disaster chains using the DISChain_Net model. The cause and process of the destruction as well as the disaster consequences were discussed. Then, the crucial nodes in the process of the disaster chain delivery were identified, which enabled the decision makers to make a reasonable judgment and implement mitigation measures. The study will thus provide new research ideas for studying the mine ground surface subsidence disasters through modeling, analysis, and assessment.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41771443, 41371373) and the National Key Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2016YFB0502601). The authors would like to express sincere thanks to the editors and anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and insightful feedback.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Mining Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, No. 79, West Yingze Street, Taiyuan, 030024, China

    Yuejuan Chen, Jin Zhang, Anchao Zhou & Bo Yin

  2. College of Mining Engineering, Inner Mongolia University of Technology, No. 49, Aimin Street, Hohhot, 010051, China

    Yuejuan Chen & Bo Yin

Authors
  1. Yuejuan Chen
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  2. Jin Zhang
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  3. Anchao Zhou
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  4. Bo Yin
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Correspondence to Jin Zhang.

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Chen, Y., Zhang, J., Zhou, A. et al. Modeling and analysis of mining subsidence disaster chains based on stochastic Petri nets. Nat Hazards 92, 19–41 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3190-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3190-6

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