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Integrated assessment for hydrometeorological drought based on Markov chain model

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Abstract

Drought assessment based on a single index cannot comprehensively reflect the characteristics of a drought affected by multiple factors. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to accurately assess the drought by constructing an integrated drought assessment method (PDSI-SDI) that can combine the meteorological drought and hydrological drought at the same time. To better evaluate and forecast the drought, the Markov chain model is employed in this study to calculate the expected residence time, return period and transition probabilities of the drought. Furthermore, the Mann–Kendall method is adopted to predict the trend of the drought. The Weihe River Basin is selected as the study area, and according to the distribution characteristics of the water system, it is divided into five districts in order to better assess the drought. Results indicate that: (1) spatially, drought probabilities increase from south to north and west to east. (2) Temporally, probabilities of spring droughts are the highest, followed by summer droughts and autumn droughts, winter droughts have the lowest probabilities, extreme droughts are more likely to occur in autumn. (3) Drought preferentially transfers within the same scenario, except scenario 4 (meteorological drought with no hydrological drought) in autumn is prone to shift to scenario 1 (no meteorological drought with no hydrological drought). (4) There is a significant drying trend of the drought in the Weihe River Basin at the significance level of 95 %. The integrated drought assessment method and other methods adopted in this study can be applied in other regions as well.

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Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51190093), the high efficiency development and utilization of water resources key project of Ministry of Science and Technology (2016YFC0400906), the Key Innovation Group of Science and Technology of Shaanxi (2012KCT-10). Sincere gratitude is extended to the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their help.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, 710048, China

    Jie Yang, Yimin Wang, Jianxia Chang & Qiang Huang

  2. Hanjiang - to - Weihe River Water Diversion Project Construction Co. Ltd., Xi’an, 710048, Shaanxi Province, China

    Jun Yao

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  1. Jie Yang
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  2. Yimin Wang
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  3. Jianxia Chang
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  4. Jun Yao
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  5. Qiang Huang
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Correspondence to Jianxia Chang.

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Yang, J., Wang, Y., Chang, J. et al. Integrated assessment for hydrometeorological drought based on Markov chain model. Nat Hazards 84, 1137–1160 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2480-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2480-0

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