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Natural Hazards

, Volume 84, Issue 2, pp 1137–1160 | Cite as

Integrated assessment for hydrometeorological drought based on Markov chain model

  • Jie Yang
  • Yimin Wang
  • Jianxia Chang
  • Jun Yao
  • Qiang Huang
Original Paper
  • 243 Downloads

Abstract

Drought assessment based on a single index cannot comprehensively reflect the characteristics of a drought affected by multiple factors. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to accurately assess the drought by constructing an integrated drought assessment method (PDSI-SDI) that can combine the meteorological drought and hydrological drought at the same time. To better evaluate and forecast the drought, the Markov chain model is employed in this study to calculate the expected residence time, return period and transition probabilities of the drought. Furthermore, the Mann–Kendall method is adopted to predict the trend of the drought. The Weihe River Basin is selected as the study area, and according to the distribution characteristics of the water system, it is divided into five districts in order to better assess the drought. Results indicate that: (1) spatially, drought probabilities increase from south to north and west to east. (2) Temporally, probabilities of spring droughts are the highest, followed by summer droughts and autumn droughts, winter droughts have the lowest probabilities, extreme droughts are more likely to occur in autumn. (3) Drought preferentially transfers within the same scenario, except scenario 4 (meteorological drought with no hydrological drought) in autumn is prone to shift to scenario 1 (no meteorological drought with no hydrological drought). (4) There is a significant drying trend of the drought in the Weihe River Basin at the significance level of 95 %. The integrated drought assessment method and other methods adopted in this study can be applied in other regions as well.

Keywords

Integrated drought assessment Palmer Drought Severity Index Streamflow drought index Markov chain model Mann–Kendall test method 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51190093), the high efficiency development and utilization of water resources key project of Ministry of Science and Technology (2016YFC0400906), the Key Innovation Group of Science and Technology of Shaanxi (2012KCT-10). Sincere gratitude is extended to the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their help.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jie Yang
    • 1
  • Yimin Wang
    • 1
  • Jianxia Chang
    • 1
  • Jun Yao
    • 2
  • Qiang Huang
    • 1
  1. 1.State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, School of Water Resources and HydropowerXi’an University of TechnologyXi’anChina
  2. 2.Hanjiang - to - Weihe River Water Diversion Project Construction Co. Ltd.Xi’anChina

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