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Comparing landslide susceptibility models in the Río El Estado watershed on the SW flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano, Mexico

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Abstract

A comprehensive study of landslide susceptibility models is carried out in the Río El Estado watershed on the SW flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano. A detailed multitemporal landslide inventory map in the watershed is used as a framework for the quantitative comparison of three landslide susceptibility models. The first landslide susceptibility map is created by using the Stability Index MAPping model. The second and the third landslide susceptibility maps are created using multiple logistic regression (MLR) and multicriteria evaluation models. The validation of the resulting susceptibility maps is performed by comparing them with an inventory map in a contingency table and through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The results point out that the models tend to over-predict and have a moderate to high match with the landslide areas. In this research, MLR is preferred over the other two models because MLR obtains similar or better results with fewer significant variables.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the authorities and personnel from the Laboratorio de Mecánica de Suelos, Facultad de Ingeniería, UNAM, for their help. This research was supported by the program of Ciencia Básica SEP-CONACYT Grant No. 167495, the International Programme on Landslides (IPL, Project No. 187), and NASA Grant NNX12AQ10G.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratorio de Análisis Geo-espacial, Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito Exterior, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510, Mexico, D.F., Mexico

    Gabriel Legorreta Paulín

  2. Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, SUNY Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USA

    Solène Pouget & Marcus Bursik

  3. Departamento de Geografía Física, Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito Exterior, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510, Mexico, D.F., Mexico

    Fernando Aceves Quesada

  4. Forest Practices Division, Washington State Department of Natural Resources, Olympia, WA, USA

    Trevor Contreras

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  1. Gabriel Legorreta Paulín
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  2. Solène Pouget
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  3. Marcus Bursik
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  4. Fernando Aceves Quesada
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  5. Trevor Contreras
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gabriel Legorreta Paulín.

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This paper is submitted in memory of our colleague and friend Solène Pouget.

Solène Pouget: Deceased.

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Legorreta Paulín, G., Pouget, S., Bursik, M. et al. Comparing landslide susceptibility models in the Río El Estado watershed on the SW flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano, Mexico. Nat Hazards 80, 127–139 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1960-y

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